What are the drivers of oil price?

http://www.amazon.com/Oil-101-Morgan-Downey/dp/0982039204/

http://www.amazon.com/Oils-Endless-Bid-Unreliable-Economy-ebook/dp/B004U7MUU2


Quote from trade4succes:

I understand the drivers of bonds, stocks, even currencies (mostly macro-economic indicators) and gold (sentiment at the moment and as bottom the more or less the cost of mining it).

What about oil? What do you look at for drivers of the price. Is geo-political risk expectation (middle-east, venezuela) more important as wars there maycut supply, or are you looking at the economy for demand. Or are is it more important the investments the oil majors are planning to make or not to make. At the moment I am just too unsure to even try to make a bet.

Anyone knows how to look at it? Gold and stocks, technical analysis would mostly suffice as I have an idea what's is going on, but oil?
 
Gasoline price movements in any given country -- it's up 22% from last year or down 8% in the last two months relate to crude pricing. But the levels the prices are at -- call it the base -- have nothing to do with the pice per barrel of crude.

Like cigarettes, booze etc. the base depends on governments attitude toward the commodity. My partner and I owned some "stripper" production in Texas during the '70s and I think we got $12.40 a barrel while others in Texas got much less. Because our wells each produced an average of less than 10 barrels daily the Texas Railroad Commision let us get a market price.

Our total production averaged 50 barrels a day over 8 wells in two counties. Why we got to sell at the market and others that had wells producing 100 barrels per got less -- the regulated price of less than $8 per -- never made any sense to me. Without the revenue from gasoline many countries would be bankrupt in a month. The whole setup is insane.

Quote from xelite777:

By the way, did you know that the price of gasoline at the pump is 151 times more expensive in Norway than in Venezuela?
 
Quote from ogarbitrage:

This is a seminal work. I require all my junior colleagues read it.

downey's book is one of my favorites... I was able to trust trading crude spreads thanks to having a better understanding... too bad there isnt a similar book for grains that I have found... the knowledge is fragmented out there for the grains.. :(
 
Quote from Brighton:

Thanks for the recommendations for "Oil 101."

I would add "The Prize" by Yergin if someone is starting out or just wants a fuller understanding of oil's history and importance. Some say that Yergin is now just a shill for his Big Oil clients, but back in the day, he wrote a darn good book and it won a Pulitzer to boot.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Prize:_The_Epic_Quest_for_Oil,_Money,_and_Power

cool... I didnt know the PBS documentary was based on it...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qspu35JG59Q
 
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