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What are the currently the best FDAX systems?
- Thread starter gg12
- Start date
Trouble is, none of these ideas have an aweful lot of value unless you have some (back test) numbers to support them.
I can't tell you how many times I have looked at an intraday chart of FDAX (or ES, NQ, ZN, etc) and come up with some simple ideas that make money whilst eye-balling the chart.
Then try coding the ideas and testing over 3+ years of data (vs looking at a few days like you are doing here). Most ideas have proved to be garbage. I find this a depressing experience, but a neccesary one!!
From you initial post it seems like you are aware of the pitfalls of curve-fitting etc but you have not backed it up in practice.
Don't get me wrong, some of your systems may be perfectly valid. But test over a large quantity of data - don't just post a graph of one day to show how effective the idea can be.
I can't tell you how many times I have looked at an intraday chart of FDAX (or ES, NQ, ZN, etc) and come up with some simple ideas that make money whilst eye-balling the chart.
Then try coding the ideas and testing over 3+ years of data (vs looking at a few days like you are doing here). Most ideas have proved to be garbage. I find this a depressing experience, but a neccesary one!!
From you initial post it seems like you are aware of the pitfalls of curve-fitting etc but you have not backed it up in practice.
Don't get me wrong, some of your systems may be perfectly valid. But test over a large quantity of data - don't just post a graph of one day to show how effective the idea can be.
RhinoTrader,
thank you! You are perfectly right!
Trading is mass data statistics.
Drawing conclusions from intraday time frames is meaningless because all signal are traded. The paper profit gives a nice impression and motivates to do even a harder work to uncover the structure of the market.
But only a higher time frame filter will solve the problem, because some of the trades will then not be taken.
The other point is that I am treating long and short trades equal which is not the right thing to to in practice.
I am still in the learning process and will ever be and I am happy that you shared your experience.
thank you! You are perfectly right!
Trading is mass data statistics.
Drawing conclusions from intraday time frames is meaningless because all signal are traded. The paper profit gives a nice impression and motivates to do even a harder work to uncover the structure of the market.
But only a higher time frame filter will solve the problem, because some of the trades will then not be taken.
The other point is that I am treating long and short trades equal which is not the right thing to to in practice.
I am still in the learning process and will ever be and I am happy that you shared your experience.