WHAT are the chances that Bitcoin will hit $100,000 by end of December?

There is always a chance for anything. To get to 100K by end of December the chance is very small. And that's without reflecting on whether BTC is worth that or not. The 100%+ move in that short of a time is too big.
 
5-10% chance seems right. Feels like we'll need to see some developments on the macro front to drive another allocation wave. A proper US exchange-listed bitcoin ETF could also get us there, but over a few years - not months.
 
I think the chance of hitting $100K by eoy is pretty good. Oct - December are usually good months for bitcoin

Imho the best way to play it is to hold bitcoin the actual crypto digital asset, rather than options or any other derivatives, like if bitcoin goes to $80K but not $100K

One exception would be MSTR which at the current stock price might be a better play given their bitcoin holdings

NFA. Disclosure: I'm holding both bitcoin and MSTR Jan/2022 calls
 
Specterx said:
5-10% chance seems right. Feels like we'll need to see some developments on the macro front to drive another allocation wave. A proper US exchange-listed bitcoin ETF could also get us there, but over a few years - not months.
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The 10% chance is based on the delta of 0.1 for the December options?
 
Iwilldoit said:
So whatever delta amount there is for a strike price, that will be the probability that said asset will reach that price?

Thanks!
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It is what the market thinks at the moment. You can either buy it or sell, take the bet or be the bookmaker. As the price moves to the strike the delta will change to .5 or 50%.

1/.11 = 9 so a 9 to 1 bet. Do you bet on horses that are 9 to 1 or would you like to be the book runner?
 
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ZBZB said:
it is what the market thinks at the moment. You can either buy it or sell, take the bet or be the bookmaker. As the price moves to the strike the delta will change to .5 or 50%.

1/.11 = 9 so a 9 to 1 bet. Do you bet on horses that are 9 to 1 or would you like to be the book runner?
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Thanks for the explanation, I'm glad I posted here, if I posted in the bitcoin forum all my replies would of been fantasy.
 
Iwilldoit said:
And this means?
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You are looking at the price of bitcoin in dollars and wondering why it is so volatile. Bitcoin has fixed supply so invert it and price everything in bitcoin. It is still volatile but what you are seeing is the dollar going down. Same for your house, you have done nothing but live in it, but the price changes as the supply of dollar increases. The dollar is down by 98% since 1971.
 
ZBZB said:
You are looking at the price of bitcoin in dollars and wondering why it is so volatile. Bitcoin has fixed supply so invert it and price everything in bitcoin. It is still volatile but what you are seeing is the dollar going down. Same for your house, you have done nothing but live in it, but the price changes as the supply of dollar increases. The dollar is down by 98% since 1971.
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Now I really dont follow, are you trying to say that the real value of a dollar is lower due to inflation?

How does the value of my home decrease due to more money injected into the economy ( supply of a dollar)

Thanks.
 
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