What are some Basic Strategies that have Worked for You?

[Pekelo]

At the current market, at the close buy the closest SPY OTM calls, sell the next day after open. It has a positive expectancy until the rally is over.

 

[zghorner]

At the current market, at the close buy the closest SPY OTM calls, sell the next day after open. It has a positive expectancy until the rally is over.

Now that’s what I’m talking about.

 

[ChrisDouthit]

Are you trading or investing? Why only 50 trades a year for someone doing it full time? It will take forever to know if your edge is statistically significant.

Interesting question, no one's asked me that before. Our trades on average last about 30 days, with about 50 trades per year and winning over 90% of the of them, we are going to have a far better return on capital than someone else doing 100 trades and winning only 70% of them.

We put extensive research and every trade. We then write a complete research report so everyone has complete understanding of what's going on with trade. These are often 1000 words or more with graphs or other comparable displays, so it takes a lot of time. In addition, we spent a lot of time researching companies that we decide aren't worth trading in the end. Just remember, not investing in a losing trade is more important than investing in a winning trade.

 

[themickey]

Interesting question, no one's asked me that before. Our trades on average last about 30 days, with about 50 trades per year and winning over 90% of the of them, we are going to have a far better return on capital than someone else doing 100 trades and winning only 70% of them.

We put extensive research and every trade. We then write a complete research report so everyone has complete understanding of what's going on with trade. These are often 1000 words or more with graphs or other comparable displays, so it takes a lot of time. In addition, we spent a lot of time researching companies that we decide aren't worth trading in the end. Just remember, not investing in a losing trade is more important than investing in a winning trade.

Do you think perhaps your high win rate has anything to do with publishing a report regarding the target.

 

[ChrisDouthit]

Do you think perhaps your high win rate has anything to do with publishing a report regarding the target.

I'm not sure I understand, but I think our win rate is represented by the amount of effort we put in each trade. Often times losses are generated due to random events that pop up. For example, I'm still concerned about the coronavirus and the events that can transpire over the next several weeks.

 

[themickey]

I'm not sure I understand, but I think our win rate is represented by the amount of effort we put in each trade. Often times losses are generated due to random events that pop up. For example, I'm still concerned about the coronavirus and the events that can transpire over the next several weeks.

Mmmmm, what I meant, if your organisation published your favoured positions reports, others would simply piggyback on your position adding further positve momentum to them, that is, If your reports are respected and allowed to leak out.

 

[traider]

I'm not sure I understand, but I think our win rate is represented by the amount of effort we put in each trade. Often times losses are generated due to random events that pop up. For example, I'm still concerned about the coronavirus and the events that can transpire over the next several weeks.

Please post a trade example.

 

[ChrisDouthit]

Mmmmm, what I meant, if your organisation published your favoured positions reports, others would simply piggyback on your position adding further positve momentum to them, that is, If your reports are respected and allowed to leak out.

That would only be true with many thousands of contracts. The stock price movement and volatility changes are going to be a way bigger factors in price. Anyway, I really just wanted to discuss different strategies, in my opinion, selling premium will win out in the long run.

 

[Pekelo]

At the current market, at the close buy the closest SPY OTM calls, sell the next day after open. It has a positive expectancy until the rally is over.

Overnight the market gaps up 4 out of 5 times on an average week, this is getting ridiculous. Today's expiry 337 SPY call was 60 cents at the close, SPY (336.7) will open at 337.7, so those call options are going to be 80-100% up at the open.

As a general rule, you can buy index calls on any pullback, just leave a couple of days for it to recover.

Edit: They opened around 1.04-08, currently over 1.2

 

[ironchef]

The stock price movement and volatility changes are going to be a way bigger factors in price. Anyway, I really just wanted to discuss different strategies, in my opinion, selling premium will win out in the long run.

Is that you opinion or your results?

May I ask, did your organization try buying instead of selling?