what am I ?

[traitor786]

Funny to see the above comment. Ill hope i enter att hat price it would be nice to have the trade as part of my statistics. It seems like the treads I actually take and the ones I post have different results. but Ill have to calculate it out.

I tried a looser entry trade that can be found on another thread. what ever it was not a serious entry. Only I can understand that . Im sure there is something there that indicates that. Count it if you like .

Its funny how things evolve.

I entered an order as a test. I was shorted out. that is not an issue, i enetered when i thought of the idea, not based on anything else knowing that the timing is important. nut it kept my eyes on teh chart and now I have a place holder on the chart of my trade.


A new ideas had other common aspects to it. There is no reason for them to be there unless I was rich.

the idea was that I would have what seemed as a looser stop and have a higher goal.

The entry and stop were terrible.

many enter on support and buy wit 1:5 risk to reward rates. They are greedy and do not see that 1:and and 1:10 should yeild the same results (something to be tested for ocnfirmation)


They have given a biase to their trade. when you give a biase to your trade people will take it and capitalize on it.

I was going for the big bucks. but how many times did it seem the MM was fishing down low to take stops. I knew he would do this, that is why I placed my stop low. I was certian things will go down. I should of shorted.

another good bet i find is when price is moving up TO a trend line.

By this definition I should be short.

Change my postion ? nah. Generally not a good idea right now from experience. I should of been short I should still be short. down to 1525.

Conflict in my head. not that any are more likely. its more that what do i want to have recorded in my trades and my memory. that Once again i swicthed positions and they took me on both sides ? or that I bought a bottom based on a ruff MM entry.

I think I can take both? short and cover around 1525 while at the same time being long with a stop under 1525. then my exit is based 100% on time. and time is the best way to exit.

so as price moves either direction I am at break even. if I was wrong and it did not go to 1525 and just went up, Im ok and can say I messed up and exit both.

If I am right, I can close my short till 1525 order and now have finds to cover my longs looses.

I am taking the risk out of this trade (short to 1525) and moving it the next trade.


------------short trades ---- long trade
works 0$ ----------- I make 100$ or get shorted
doesnt 0$----------- I break even

Instead i can just go long at the bottom and have the same results with less fees.

psychologically it seems different. I know it must be the same. but psychologically it is not. I am entering early. as soon as I close my short order I am automatically going long .. actually the fees are the same.

Its just stupid mathimatically and logically but my brain was not sur eof the exact out come and what I was doing by taking a trade like that. so if it was undure how it evens out that means my brain is a bit lost and off. so Ill think about it, not sure if my profits from one order go directly to the other even before I close the order. this may mean I will need doubel risk tollerence, which has already gone up due to the higher target.

One my stupider posts mathematically for sure.

 

[traitor786]

I had posted recently on a thread I started entitled "Gold (at support)


1.
I was introduced to the idea of trading pairs. Though the idea and beneifits of this seems to make sense to me yet, I do understand that one can bet on a more isolated situation. An example of this would be beting on gold going up and hedging against a USD move, Some times one is right but another variable comes in to play. Here we can lower the variables. No longer do we need to predict the out come (dependant variable) but we can predict only the independent variable. It is still a gamble but with one less step. At each step there is a probability screen that things go through.
jumbling everything up. If you live in japan for instance while they are printing money your gold chart shows a healthy trend. mine does not cause I have to go through 2 jumbles of probability

2.
Options come in to play here. Though I do not have enough of a handle on things to take this step I have learnt some intresting things that need to be explored. It turns out that you can actually bet on if price will move either way or stay steady. Being unsure if gold will go up or or down, I was still rather sure that it will go in to a range first. Instead of teh range being a problem I could of been making money. This is a bad example for obvious reasons ("rather sure" and why was I loosing money (thought the range was over or impatience))

3.
Gold is in a range and I should be looking at what systems work in a range if I have the time.

4. Options have a time aspect to them being on the right side means that I should atleast be able to profit off the fact that I am wiling to give time. and have money tied up.

5,
The idea was to hedge against a fall in gold. I still do not see it any security in a strategy, I feel it is there, but it may be something that plays out over too long a time frame. some thing along the lines of accumilating physical and hedging paper gold or something along those lines. the benefit is that there is less physical then paper and the whole money system and or credit system may fall.

6.
People use "R" in a more subjective way, This may mean that they are part of the program. Though the mind is terrible at probability, variables are just as terrible as not interfering, When most variables are removed we have a coin toss, and it is not even clear if one can win at that .

7.
Everything must even out. work risk profit.Franchise remove risk and pass it on to merchants, they have steady growth, merchants growth is varies and he may loose. but for the money he put in he may beat every other oppertunity.

Like wise sales person with a phone and mail may not have expenses but he puts in work . he holds the same risk. with no collarteral.

I enter the market as a sales person. and I have high risk with no collatoral. options give me reward for time put in atleast. But I am buying peoples risk right now. I am buying something some one thinks is too risky .

The problem may not be mathematical. but math is still needed to gauge things.

8.
Not sure if I mentioned this in 1, but what I saw from my work of comparing every things corolation to everything was that there was a very strong move in the euro. it begun to do the opposite of what it used to. the euro seems to be at support and seems to have stalled but has not yet reversed, it is intresting that I saw this in the corolation before I was it in the charts. Actually the charts have not confirmed anything as of yet.
My data was severly limited and this type of move may be common and all I see is noise not a drastic change.

 

[traitor786]

my posts and learning has gone up alot. It is amazing how much time is spent either posting or learning, I find my self listening to alot of university clases in many feilds. jumping around, and then i go a bit too far and come back to the first one, the details are avoided on the first look around. by the time i come back to look at it again it is being relooked at for another reason its level of importance has gone up because of another idea I had read.

I jump around all over the place, and assume it is direction less. But while I jump I see that peoples systems seem to me to have a flaw. They cant see it, maybe i am wrong , but too often things do not make sence.

very few people understand what they are doing. it is like they were open at one point to let math take out risk. but they did not continue to see if math is being followed. It seems some people have learnt to kick the can of risk down the road. Too many have the goal of covering their fees.

This idea of having a 1% edge is week. my dice roll has a 1% edge in one direction or the other. eventually this goes evens out to the other side.
A 1% edge is simply a series of bets that take full advantage of the 1% skewedness of my coin toss. it will change, but people may change along with it . They are simply doing no more then seeing a bunch of red number on the roulette table and betting on red. They just made it really complex and dug deep to find some thing that has alot more occurences in a row then reds poping up on a roulet table.

So built in to randomness is a reversion to the mean. The raw data goes back and forth it changes often and its turning point is not the same. each bet becomes a 50 50 if one has limited funds.

Within this data, is other data created by math, now we can chose entry and exits. there are millions of ideas and combonations. It is possible that some setups have different results then the raw data.
Within the randomness is other randomness that has different characteristic's.

Beting only 2% of your account means that your strategy takes a long time to play out, It may mean that you are in long enough to take advantage of the inflationary nature of the market. This can then be extracted by the broker in the form of fees.

If fees are ones issues they should minimize it, If a startegy profits 1 out of 10 times and the 1 time pays for the lose of the 1 time. they should invest 5% and take on 2 runs of that making sure they got it knowing that 10 % of the time the 1 in 10 systems fail)

They choose to stay in the game longer, and limit their loss. If they could go back would they of just been anyt better or worse off betting on thier full account balance on a single trade? the end result would of been the same minus the fees and extra time taken.

They find an edge and they dont play it . But this is understandable. Many need to have some funds in the stystem to learn.

Why they do not gamble is beyond me.

My own results seem to have broken the 50 50. fees were accounted for. There is a more greedy force I am fighting that has its edge. This is a fact, The theory of the MMM. (MArket maker monster) fist this. But so does the fact that the magician has cursed me.

This thread has some interesting charts ideas and thoughts. Every one can participate if they can read. I dont see how or why they would read this. It is long redundant and not forward moving. grammer and spelling are crap.

The main reason for this seems to be for myself. So judge me not on my writing if you read this. If there was productive communication on bothe sides then I would edit it and include more of the concrete things I do.

There are just too many of the most basic ideas that no one can answer.
For an industry that so many say they make money off of and is no different them gambling, it is amazing how no one can say how they extract money.

One thing is highly probable. and that is that your price will be revisited,And so will your stop loose and your target. (atleast 90% of the time.) The 10 % it does not reach your target, you loose all you put in to that one trade. I find this interesting and I think it summs up every system out there. in the end they limit their loss instead of doing the probable thing.