I already posted on spy in 2021 or whenever it tanked...had you bought at the worst time right before the drop you'd still be up today...had you been averaging down you'd be up even more.
What a stupid study
- Thread starter wxytrader
- Start date
I already posted on spy in 2021 or whenever it tanked...had you bought at the worst time right before the drop you'd still be up today...had you been averaging down you'd be up even more.
makes no sense.....
What does "bought at the worst time mean"???
You have detailed simulations with perfomance metrics?
What does "bought at the worst time mean"???
You have detailed simulations with perfomance metrics?
For example if bought at the 2020 drop and averaged down:
75 shares @ 338
88 shares @ 297
105 shares @ 252
268 shares @ 290.84
Current price: 523.07
PnL: 62237.64
ROI: 82%
This is the worst case scenario...if you had the worst timing. Ideally you want to be catching the falling knife nearer to the bottom.
Last edited:
Nobody cares about your odd lot stop orders
Did you not read anything posted...this whole topic is how stop losses are useless.
Aside from the compete cuck advice shown above ..how the heck is a stop loss going to help you after hours when the bug gaps happen?
View attachment 337187
For example if bought at the 2020 drop and averaged down:
75 shares @ 338
88 shares @ 297
105 shares @ 252
268 shares @ 290.84
Current price: 523.07
PnL: 62237.64
ROI: 82%
This is the worst case scenario...if you had the worst timing. Ideally you want to be catching the falling knife nearer to the bottom.
The biggest problem is you didn't talk about the trend.
There are broadly 3 types of trends:
1. uptrend
2. downtrend
3. trendless / no trend / choppy messy chaotic trend /sideway / ranging / lunatic /
out-of-the-world trend
Your strategy works only on the uptrend.
Unfortunately,
90% of the time, the trend is type 3.
So your strategy wouldn't work.
Type 3 choppy/trendless trend is so common that
the professional talkers/writers
- don't even know about it
- too fearful to talk/write about it
- don't know what to do about it
So professional talkers/writers don't talk/write about it.
Last edited:
That's what people who don't understand Elliott wave call them. There is equal opportunity making money trading reversals or the actual trend. I prefer reversals myself. Btw flipping that upside down has created an unnatural pattern. Stocks do not move like that in a downtrend.
Putting Elliot wave aside,I do agree that there should be equal opportunity trading reversals or the trend,though I would probably opt for "with the trend"..
Im still not sure if you would fall under the trader or investor category,not that it means that much.What I would be careful is becoming an investor because my trade went against me.
Where I would question you is how you approach trading. You do not appear to be playing a game with positive expectancy. Very few do. You talk about understanding Elliot wave,but your approach is lipstick on a pig. I believe where you majorly fail is you will always underperform if you are dead right. You operate within a light "martingale" framework,and in your example your first purchase was 28% of what would wind up being your total position doubling and tripling up down 12 and 25 percent..Thats a losers game,but very consistent with your approach to selling puts...
Im still not sure if you would fall under the trader or investor category,not that it means that much.What I would be careful is becoming an investor because my trade went against me.
Where I would question you is how you approach trading. You do not appear to be playing a game with positive expectancy. Very few do. You talk about understanding Elliot wave,but your approach is lipstick on a pig. I believe where you majorly fail is you will always underperform if you are dead right. You operate within a light "martingale" framework,and in your example your first purchase was 28% of what would wind up being your total position doubling and tripling up down 12 and 25 percent..Thats a losers game,but very consistent with your approach to selling puts...