We've seen the bottom, up from here

GCY00_Barchart_Interactive_Chart_01_29_2022(1).png

I used this chart earlier today in a post, and you know what, it means diddly squat.
I posted it for entertainment, because the masses can relate to it.
This is what the chart means - 'anything can happen!'
Price may go up, down, sideways, react, not react.
Price may break downward in a dummy move then break up and vice versa.
You cannot predict anything from that chart.
You can only react when you get a clear signal, even then, the signal is not clear.
Personally when price arrives at the apex and breaks out, I would not take it as any major indication because where price is, it's in the wrong place.
 
themickey said:
View attachment 276763
I used this chart earlier today in a post, and you know what, it means diddly squat.
I posted it for entertainment, because the masses can relate to it.
This is what the chart means - 'anything can happen!'
Price may go up, down, sideways, react, not react.
Price may break downward in a dummy move then break up and vice versa.
You cannot predict anything from that chart.
You can only react when you get a clear signal, even then, the signal is not clear.
Personally when price arrives at the apex and breaks out, I would not take it as any major indication because where price is, it's in the wrong place.
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I understand your point which you make abundantly clear every time you have a chance. However, you may agree that a majority of traders, new retail, old wolves and automated systems, use indicators. As such, it is also quite concevable that prices are affected by these indicators and thus it would make sense to show such indicators for predictive purpose, no?
 
VicBee said:
I understand your point which you make abundantly clear every time you have a chance. However, you may agree that a majority of traders, new retail, old wolves and automated systems, use indicators. As such, it is also quite concevable that prices are affected by these indicators and thus it would make sense to show such indicators for predictive purpose, no?
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The problem, there are a myriad of indicators all using differing time frames, as well, different data providers with different ways they offer bar information, again differing time frames. So in effect, all traders using indicators are conflicting with one another, besides the fact traders conflict with interpretation. Yet another problem (the main issue) all these indicators are lagging. They may present a partial picture of probabilities eg trend change but its late, then add the traders hesitancy and you'll get more late.
Indicators are only as good as the formula they are constructed with, who knows if the formula is buggy or the same as other traders are using?
I shouldn't disparage indicators because imo, the more traders use them the better for me, less competition.
I'm a bit of an old dog with trading and my experience they are not only useless but dangerous.
 
What 'dumb' traders are hoping to achieve with indicators is some magic unknown timeframe which will give them the holy grail to predicting future prices in an instrument.
There is no holy grail time frame, there is no holy grail indicator, there is no holy grail method of predicting via any indicator.
 
themickey said:
What 'dumb' traders are hoping to achieve with indicators is some magic unknown timeframe which will give them the holy grail to predicting future prices in an instrument.
There is no holy grail time frame, there is no holy grail indicator, there is no holy grail method of predicting via any indicator.
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Yes, I agree, trying to predict the future is common to many jobs and often futile. But there are probability tools available to those who know how to use them to provide predictive outcomes that are better than guesses.
While there are way too many indicators out there, it's also probably fair to say that 4-5 of them are most commonly used, particularly by millions of recent traders, such as 50 and 200 SMA, VWAP, MACD, RSI, etc. When the stock price hits a point on any one of those, it will trigger human or automated responses to act and that action can be predictable.

I used Fibonacci extension and retracement to help me trigger possible entry/exit points. Not clarity, just probability.
 
Clark Bruno said:
Huh? Nothing could be further from the truth and facts. Buying bottoms or selling tops is the absolutely riskiest and lowest return strategy overall. And it's certainly not the most rewarding one, return wise. The largest moves are in the middle/belly of the cycles and towards the end.

The one large move at the top or bottom has to make up for the many times you will be wrong, and nobody has the holy grail to get it right more often than not at the top or bottom.

At least I cannot disagree more with your statement. Worst approach to trading ever is to try to time tops and bottoms.
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Yup, just like the old maxim (I think it's in one of the Jack Schwager books)
"Do you want to be right or do you want to make money?"
It sounds like a riddle until you see it in this context.
 
Covertibility said:
It looks like peak inflation. Also notice spending was down and inventories rose in the GDP report. Peak inflation.
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Just wondering - is that (peak inflation) some kind of newly accepted concept?
It kind of flies in the face of Austrian ECO
"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomon."
In that context, it's like saying the money supply has reached its peak.
I don't think our current crop of BS politicians would even ever say that. :sneaky:
 
Austrian economics lost a long time ago, Keynes won. Every politician gets aboard the govt spending train.

Nobody associates inflation with money supply. Let's take a look:


fredgraph.png



Look at last decade, look at M1 soaring yet inflation (prices) was (were) tame.
Look at the 90's, M1 all over the place, inflation was tame.
Look at the 70's, M1 stable yet inflation was high.


Don't was your time with money supply, inflation today is about prices.
 
One of the many reasons why M1 doesn't work like it used to:-

We can thank the Chinese for our "muted" inflation as well as Fed number juggling.

Chinese workers for creating all the low, or lower than we can produce, goods.
Chinese gubmint for buying our crap Treasuries.
 
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