I think there will be a retest eventually, but I also have no idea when. Until then it is an uptrend.
We're looking toppy....
- Thread starter bbraunstein
- Start date
Originally posted by SethArb
It depends on if I go long or short
having one of those weeks
I go short ... it rallies ...
I go long ... it dumps ...
lost 1/2 of my profits from last week
Seth, I think the gravy train is over for a while. I've had two of the worst days I've had in a while this week.
After big thrust days, there are meandering days (in listed stocks, at least) where the floor simply abuses people.
Hang in.
Yeah, but you gotta keep in your mind two things.....
1) End of month window dressing
2) markets do not just reverse on a V after a bear like that. Expect a certain degree of continuation or retesting of lower support levels
1) End of month window dressing
2) markets do not just reverse on a V after a bear like that. Expect a certain degree of continuation or retesting of lower support levels
It could be end of the month window dressing but quarterly window dressing is much stronger. Just maybe, this is a sign that the smart money is coming in, in the afternoon after the dumb money takes the markets down in the morning. It has happened twice in a row now (today and yesterday). But then again, I could be wrong. 
With the action in the bonds and the overall mid-day weakness that was bid higher into the close...I see two different possibilities going forward:
A. A "rolling chop" market higher with a series of range bound days that get resolved in the final hour. Lots of "bear traps" or bear baiting on what look to be solid signals that get absorbed and defended on pullbacks...Upthrusts on the back of +1000 TICK highs and buy programs...This could go on for weeks for all I know...
B. Smart money rotated into bonds today and sold into the close to either a.) liquidate long positions into strength and b.) establish low risk short positions..In this case, I would anticipate a test of the gap range between 855-870 and the DOW would break back below 8600...
Either way following those VIX extremes, once the vol implodes, I have found a tendency for markets to congest the volatility first before making any serious downside move again...Bull, bear markets, it all seems to act in a similar manner when you get those volatility explosions that then implode..
just my two cents worth...
A. A "rolling chop" market higher with a series of range bound days that get resolved in the final hour. Lots of "bear traps" or bear baiting on what look to be solid signals that get absorbed and defended on pullbacks...Upthrusts on the back of +1000 TICK highs and buy programs...This could go on for weeks for all I know...
B. Smart money rotated into bonds today and sold into the close to either a.) liquidate long positions into strength and b.) establish low risk short positions..In this case, I would anticipate a test of the gap range between 855-870 and the DOW would break back below 8600...
Either way following those VIX extremes, once the vol implodes, I have found a tendency for markets to congest the volatility first before making any serious downside move again...Bull, bear markets, it all seems to act in a similar manner when you get those volatility explosions that then implode..
just my two cents worth...
I don't think so; the best way to keep this going is to keep it up, it brings in fresh money each day that fears missing the move-the most powerful driver of inst money.
For the record, this bottom is acting just like Sept 01, only most of the money is going into NYSE stocks like GE(already up 40%)
Get off the Nasdawgs and join the party!!!
For the record, this bottom is acting just like Sept 01, only most of the money is going into NYSE stocks like GE(already up 40%)
Get off the Nasdawgs and join the party!!!
