went long SPY

Quote from noob_trad3r:



10-04-11 09:11 AM
I got long another half position (500 shares) at 107.61 this morning
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bravo!!

hope you didn't get impatient and sell too soon (like I tend to do) .
 
Quote from 1a2b3cppp:

When people take a position "with the trend" or because whatever indicator told them to, they are predicting that price will go in that direction.


I have never met a profitable trend follower who can QUANTIFY how to define a trend.

Sure it's easy to look at price now and say "oh yeah we're in a downtrend" but nothing says that as soon as you enter price won't turn against you.

Now I know you're trolling. MA crossovers aren't profitable in the long run (although they tend to work when price's waves happen to coincide with the frequency of the MAs). Do some research rather than listening to your "gurus" who try to make things easy by telling you nonsense like MA crossovers have a use in trading.

The amount you lose in chop will eventually make up for the amount you gain in trends while using MA crossover systems.

To each his own. Some people made a lot of money on weighted ETFs in 2008 and 2009.
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+10
 
Quote from N54_Fan:

So if you KNOW "we're in a downtrend" then WHY BUY? Yes I know nothing says prices can't reverse just after you get in....but nothing says it can't continue either. Most things want to keep moving in the same direction. Trends usually slow down before reversing course. Having a stop loss helps protect you in these instances.

Would you jump into a moving river and try to swim upsteam? Nothing says a team of beavers couldn't build a dam and stop the river flowing...right? At the moment you jump in to the moving river it was moving against you,...why not wait until it at least slows down a bit before you even take that chance?

As for "quantifying a trend" it is not really something to quantify as it is to QUALIFY as a trend. There are many different ways...one of which is MA crossovers, or ADX & DI lines. You can say they do not work but i will tell you they do...especially when combined in multiple timeframes. A single solitary timeframe and MA crossover pair will lead to alot of whipsaws as you say. The key is in trying to figure out when to use trend following techniques and when to use other techniques when the market is consolidating. No one system works in every instance. However, suffice it to say we are NOW in a downtrend....if that is obvious (and it should be) then why would you place a buy on the long side???...I still dont get that. Could you QUALIFY your reasoning behind that? If not..the this "technique" will not work for you either.
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The reasoning was that the VIX was at a absurdly high level... and, albeit it "could" have gone higher and higher still..... the "probability" was that we would have a quick, fast, sharp reversal of trend.... not a slow, gradual one like you mention..... that happened in the old days; when I was a kid. Not nowadays in these computer driven markets.

So far as I am concerned I would NOT have jumped in. But to be honest, lately all this stuff I learned can be thrown out the window and rolling the dice seems the way to go in these shell game markets where trends change EVERY week.

every time I wait patiently, it seems to be too long and we are up another 10% (or down);

jmho
 
Quote from intradaybill:

What am I losing? He went long yesterday. He is averaging down to get out intact. Are you well?
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Now we know it is a fact: You were bearish at the exact bottom! Are you well? :p

When will people learn that the trend they see is hindsight, and that what matters is the trend they do not see yet --- the real trend.
 
Quote from iceman1:

hey HOTSHOT --- are you STILL laughing ???!
You're a real genius N54
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So you think its impossible to get out of a short with a profit in this market? Do you think that all trend traders only identify the trend long after it has become a trend and thus lose? If so you are sadly mistaken.

My point was that if there was a PROVEN trend in multiple time frames there was no need to jump in and try to call the exact bottom. As a trend trader we are obviously lagging in our trades. BUT, that does not mean we are losing. So as this thing turned around over the last few days I got out of shorts and have put on some longs.

So as a matter of fact I AM feeling like a genius....and STILL laughing at people like you that think catching a falling knife is the right thing to do. Maybe you have made some money in the last few days,...but you sure took on a lot more risk in doing it. If it works for you great. I know my system works for me and with ALOT less risk The whole point of trading is to make money while minimizing risk. If you think you were in a situation of minimal risk when you went long...well then we will just disagree.
 
Quote from iceman1:

who says that it is a "trend" ??

Prove it to me that it is a trend.

What I mean is this:

when I studied at the CME I was taught there is not just ONE trend - hotshot. There are ST trends, intermediate term trends and LT (major) trends. Further in this 'shell game' of a market that we have today... who is to say what is a "trend" and more importantly -- WHEN it will reverse or end.

Where did you study? Let us know you credentials.
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Who do you think you are? You think I care that you studied at CME? What do want a medal?.....or a chest to pin it on? SERIOUSLY, I dont give a sh*t if you were Warren Buffett himself. As for my credential,...I studied on my own. I studied in Wall Street University--the school of hard knocks...and you know what "hotshot" my lessons make me money. Even as a trend trader I made 14% in the last 2 months with never more than 2% draw down during that time....all the while the market was in a trading range....can you same the same "hotshot"?

You think I am not aware of multiple timeframes and mutiple trends? I am not going to sit here and argue with you over this stupid trade. If you think you were right,...good for you. Personally, I think you got rewarded for doing the WRONG thing.

My point is that you took too much risk for this reward.

As I said before if the market goes higher and wants to show me it is taking shape into a trend higher I will join in....as a trend trader I FOLLOW the trend I DO NOT try to predict the bottom or tops. Many a fortune has been lost in calling tops and bottoms....but good luck to you on that one,....."hotshot"....:D :D
 
Quote from N54_Fan:



My point is that you took too much risk for this reward.

As I said before if the market goes higher and wants to show me it is taking shape into a trend higher I will join in....as a trend trader I FOLLOW the trend I DO NOT try to predict the bottom or tops. Many a fortune has been lost in calling tops and bottoms....but good luck to you on that one,....."hotshot"....:D :D
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I didn't take the risk -- the OP did! lol

I don't catch falling knifes any more. I agree with you
 
Quote from N54_Fan:

As I said before if the market goes higher and wants to show me it is taking shape into a trend higher I will join in....as a trend trader I FOLLOW the trend I DO NOT try to predict the bottom or tops. Many a fortune has been lost in calling tops and bottoms....but good luck to you on that one,....."hotshot"....:D :D
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I like your mindset. From your posts I can read that you are a profitable trend follower and already wisened up enough to understand that predictions are pointless. Trends always ignite with a commonly repeated pattern and give traders enough time to hop on board. Let the scalpers and speculators who criticize you gamble their money away with their amateurish approach on the market. Eventually they will seek up advice from someone who knows how to recognize trends and profit from them consistently, or give up altogether.
 
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