Dow 30
23,889.0
DERIVED
06:18:42 | Futures
+372.0 +1.58%
S&P 500
2,890.62
DERIVED
06:18:40 | Futures
+44.12 +1.55%
Nasdaq
9,212.88
DERIVED
06:18:42 | Futures
+116.38 +1.28%
SmallCap 2000
1,288.70
DERIVED
06:18:42 | Futures
+42.30 +3.39%
Well well well...who would like to see my prediction for next week? Post your prediction here...
- Thread starter greeneveryday
- Start date
Dow 30
23,889.0
DERIVED
06:18:42 | Futures
+372.0 +1.58%
S&P 500
2,890.62
DERIVED
06:18:40 | Futures
+44.12 +1.55%
Nasdaq
9,212.88
DERIVED
06:18:42 | Futures
+116.38 +1.28%
SmallCap 2000
1,288.70
DERIVED
06:18:42 | Futures
+42.30 +3.39%
Spooz Top 2,
You are right. For me, it is better to react to what the market is doing and be a Follower not a Leader.
If the market is going upwards when my eyes see the market is going upward, my best bet is to find a decent risk location to enter long. High odds are in my favor of a win.
If the market is going downards when my eyes see the market is going downward, my best bet is to find a decent risk location to enter short. High odds are in my favor of a win.
You should ask yourself how likely it is that anyone with the skills to effectively predict would post it publicly over time or share specifics about what they do. Jim Simons worked for years before he finally cracked it and yes - they predict. And no - they don't post on ET.
Most people who try to predict do it without any hard data, i.e., the market looks like a buy or a sell here. Quite a few people here actually seems to enter just based on a hunch and not back-tested signals/data.
Prediction requires data and a means to effectively calculate probabilities. Sure - at times the market may be a cointoss, but there certainly are times where certain patterns/outcomes are more likely than others.
Just a simple gap up open have a 73 % chance of the day closing positively net on the day. That's far more than 50 %. And yes, it's a rough prediction, but it's also just one parameter. If I add in one more parameter regarding the actual open - the probability of a net positive close on the day is 81 %.
Adding in more parameters - how much more predictable can the market possibly become?
Anything can happen and the improbable does happen from time to time. 2 weeks ago there was a pattern that's happened less than 10 times over the last 2000 days. And last week we had an Outside Day which is also among the less common patterns. Actually, we had two.
But most days are the regular up or down with range expansion with some small variations from day to day.
Perfect case and pt . Today. Zero people and i mean zero people saw us up 87 pts on the es today. Matter of fact i'm pretty certain 70% of elite trader is short and if we had fallen 87 pts much of the board would have been shouting how they were short . But we won't hear a peep from all the shorts stuck. Look at it this way .If all your trades are long then you'll be right around 72% of the time . Its really that easy
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I'd say that ET is usually a good mix between bulls and bears. Last week I was 46 % long and 54 % short on my day trades.
Such a strong gap open on a Monday is quite rare, but there were at least one guy who were bullish for this week ahead of the Open. Obviously, to predict each day in great detail and days ahead is not something I personally believe is possible, but yes, I do believe markets can be predicted a lot of the time.
But prediction usually involves conditional probability, i.e., as long as this condition is in effect, then that is more likey. As markets change continuously, just like the weather, a good forecaster always uses updated data and may change his opinion if something 'new' happens that changes the current prediction.
ES Journal - 2019/2020
Maybe I am too simple thinking, but I personally think it is too much work and stress for "me" to try to predict what the market will do day to day or week to week.
I rather just wake up each day, and trade whatever direction I see at that moment in time.
Just seems like too much work to me with all the prediction stuff in the future. long term, i just buy the S&P 500 index monthly.
I mean guys, we all just got one damn brain and two arms. I am just going to keep shit simple. Make my 2 or 3 trades per day and end it. track my records.
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To complain about too much work and stress does not seem promising.
Are you killing it just waking up and trading in whatever direction you see at that moment in time...?
If so - hat's off to you.
For us yes for @greeneveryday he has been right more times than wrong when predicting the future.
ET is a trading forum, not a buy and hold forum?
We all made our predictions before the market opened on Sunday evening. You wait until the market is up $2+ before you give your vision on sunday night?????
And there you go and extra $1.44 for your piggy banks.
Next week $300 and beyond.
Get your free money !!!
295.44 USD+0.56 (0.19%)
May 22, 8:00 PM EDT · Disclaimer