Using the SPX data, we are currently hanging between the 50 EMA @ 1123 and the 200 EMA @ 1063 with one failed attempt to move back above the 50 EMA (on the 17th of March). Today we made a new low for the SPX with a spinning top candlestick and volume that was about the same as the last few days (no big increase or drop off). This could go either way from here and the news over the next few days will possibly play a role in pushing the market lower. I think it is very possible for the SPX to test the 200 EMA over the next several trading days. If there is no buying push at all tomorrow this could go down to the 200 very quick.
we'll see 1102 tomorrow
- Thread starter riskarb
- Start date
Yeah, a debit of roughly a buck, 300basis in skew edge -- buying 13vol//selling 16vol. I am not crazy about being net short puts here, but the decay allows for some quick edge gains over the next week.
The risk is obviously greater on the downside, but you can take quite a knock in the DJX and still do well -- and you're looking for the short strike at expiration as best-case. Makes $.50 in 10 days up to the long-strike -- if assuming static pricing under the +expectancy.
riskarb
which options are you playing? My problem with options is that they're so illiquid. I play the S&P quarter strikes ie 1125, 1150, 1175 only because they trade abit. But the spreads are killers. I really can't find any options where you're not at the mercy of the market makers.
Let's make a gentlemans bet re 1082 vs 1102. I don't use paypal.
Convenient James, $500 too rich for your blood? PayPal is a cinch to sign-up, take you 5 minutes and the payment can be made anonymously. Funny that you spew about $50k bets like there's no tomorrow, yet a $500 wager is a logistical nightmare?
Also quite curious that your terms were always in flux, being altered. Last statement from you via PM is that you require anonymity, making any bet on performance untenable.
OK, I've no interest in a bet with no upside(no $$) -- were already on the record, so a gentleman's bet it a bit moot. Since you've begged-off, no wager from JS.
riskarb
Paypal is not a five minute sign up if you want to use a credit card. Sad to say, they have to charge a certain amount with some weirdo code, then you have to get the code from your OL or snail mail statement (they make darn sure you cannot get it from the CSR!). Takes a week or so.
EDIT: However, there is something called Billpoint, which might be different (dunno).
EDIT #2: Not that I am gonna place any bets like this. I suck at general market direction, I'm just a little 'ol day trader. 1102 seems unlikely, but that analysis is almost worth what y'all paid to hear it.
Quote from TGregg:
Paypal is not a five minute sign up if you want to use a credit card. Sad to say, they have to charge a certain amount with some weirdo code, then you have to get the code from your OL or snail mail statement (they make darn sure you cannot get it from the CSR!). Takes a week or so.
EDIT: However, there is something called Billpoint, which might be different (dunno).
I can wait... but you can sign up in 5minutes, but yes it does take a few days to get CC/banking info accepted into the system. They DD a small amount to your bank account for verification.
In any event, the terms were not the issue, although convenient for some.
riskarb