we'll see 1102 tomorrow

arb, I think it will start to move up beginning next week, what will be a moderate risk strategy, credit straddle for june contract?
 
On a serious note.... What are the odds that the DOW and SPX fall on 6 straight consecutive sessions? When was the last time that occurred?

Bears.. short cautiously for tomm could be a huge up day :p
 
IsudayTrade,

Funny you should mention that. I've been a full-time trader for 2 years now, and we have not seen 6 straight down days in that timeframe, so you would have to look before then.

I personally feel that the world is caving in. Economy sucks, world politics is a mess, nothing looks bright to me at all. It is at these times when a reversal normally occurs.

We'll see. Good luck tomorrow.
 
Quote from nkhoi:

arb, I think it will start to move up beginning next week, what will be a moderate risk strategy, credit straddle for june contract?
More...

Yeah, a long-delta May short-straddle looks like a sound bet; a couple of strikes otm, say the 1100,1105 or 1110 for May. I think ES will outperform NQ over the next week.

I wouldn't go out to June, limited gamma/theta -- not compensated for the deltas you'd take on. May premiums are pretty fat with the vix at 20+(for good reason).

riskarb
 
Quote from James Stock:

Interesting. I say it will see 1082 before 1102.
Make you a gentlemans bet on it.
More...

$500 via PayPal? ES 1102 before 1082, day session only.

If in agreement, post your answer to this thread tonight before Midnight EST.

riskarb
 
Quote from riskarb:

Yeah, a long-delta May short-straddle looks like a sound bet; a couple of strikes otm, say the 1100,1105 or 1110 for May. I think ES will outperform NQ over the next week.

I wouldn't go out to June, limited gamma/theta -- not compensated for the deltas you'd take on. May premiums are pretty fat with the vix at 20+(for good reason).

riskarb
More...

I don't speak greek yet, but considering a bull put spread on the DJX

short APR 104P
long APR 99P

what do you think riskarb?

risk/reward are about equal it seems, purely a directional bet as far as I can tell, but what do the greeks tell you? :)
 
Quote from ig0r:

I don't speak greek yet, but considering a bull put spread on the DJX

short APR 104P
long APR 99P

what do you think riskarb?
More...

It's arbitrage(=) to a 99/104 long call spread. That's a lot of risk for the credit, maybe choose some "tighter" strikes. I favor a short backspread in puts, benefitting from the put skew.

BOT 1 103 put
SEL 2 99 puts

You'll earn a bit due to the long delta, better P&L under a 4sigma range.

For the most part, verticals have a poor r/r.

riskarb
 
Quote from riskarb:

It's arbitrage(=) to a 99/104 long call spread. That's a lot of risk for the credit, maybe choose some "tighter" strikes. I favor a short backspread in puts, benefitting from the put skew.

BOT 1 103 put
SEL 2 99 puts

You'll earn a bit due to the long delta, better P&L under a 4sigma range.

For the most part, verticals have a poor r/r.

riskarb
More...

That's for a debit then, right? Let me try to understand what's going on here (sorry for turning this into an options lesson). The put skew is working to my advantage, puts are priced higher than calls because volatility tends to go up on drops more than on rallys, correct? I don't have capped loss or profit here, do I? Where would break-even occur?

this one: http://www.liffe.com/products/strategies/recognised/short-2-1-ratio-put-spread.htm correct?
 
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