Well, I gotta go

Starting a little early this weekend. Hit a new account high Thursday and got flat. Now, for the first time in a long time I get to feel what it feels like to go into the weekend flat.

I'm just like a little ES trader and can't wait for the market to open Monday morning, only in my case it opens 17:15 Sunday et.

Kept the same position on in the paper account and apparently it would have made even more money if I had hung on.

AUD/USD I have been short as long as I can remember, and everytime I close everything out, that is the one glaring loss.

Not sure how I will play it this week

the winning trade was

short AUD/USD
long GBP/USD
short USD/CAD
long USD/CHF
short USD/JPY

so I've just slightly tipped my bias to short USD

But short against what?

as bad as USD is, everybody else also has a good case for going down

Gold is interesting, DX 83 gold low
DX 78 Gold high

but how long will that last?

If somebody could give me the real value of gold I would feel a little more confident trading it.

I have a lot of money in the bank. I use to think it was just sitting there, now that I am trading forex I see it is going up and down everyday.
 
got flat again Thursday at another new account high. Hopefully I am not getting complacent, but it does seem at the moment like taking candy from a baby.

the spread now is always the same

aud vs cad

gbp vs eur

and USD/JPY always in reserve if you want a USD bias

Martingale your losers, and if you can put on the spread at a more favorable price than you entered with your winners, go for it

Very difficult to get long EUR with all the news fundamentals

Thank g-d for sim, like the man said, when it goes to hell, that is a good time to put it on for real
 
Quote from oldtime:

got flat again Thursday at another new account high. Hopefully I am not getting complacent, but it does seem at the moment like taking candy from a baby.

the spread now is always the same

aud vs cad

gbp vs eur

and USD/JPY always in reserve if you want a USD bias

Martingale your losers, and if you can put on the spread at a more favorable price than you entered with your winners, go for it

Very difficult to get long EUR with all the news fundamentals

Thank g-d for sim, like the man said, when it goes to hell, that is a good time to put it on for real
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You're out of USDJPY? Lost some of its steam late in the day. I expect a 78.20-79.00 range this week. I am long the 77/79.65 DNT (2xKO) that expires Friday NY Fix from 100/127.
 
Quote from atticus:

You're out of USDJPY? Lost some of its steam late in the day. I expect a 78.20-79.00 range this week. I am long the 77/79.65 DNT (2xKO) that expires Friday NY Fix.
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well good luck, that goddamn pair didn't do me a hell of a lot of good last week, all it did was just sit there

what is a DNT?

yeah 78.18 was where I got in at, and that was about where I got out at
 
Quote from oldtime:

well good luck, that goddamn pair didn't do me a hell of a lot of good last week, all it did was just sit there

what is a DNT?

yeah 78.18 was where I got in at, and that was about where I got out at
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Ahh, I figured you got out on the rally. Double no touch (path-dependent). If 77.00 or 79.65 is touched this week I lose the premium. Paying 100/127 refers to the premium (numerator) and the payout (denom). I earn 27% on the bet if neither barrier is touched. Losing the entire premium if touched.

There are also double KOs that are euro-style and can touch the KO barriers, but must expire within the range to payout.
 
Quote from atticus:

Ahh, I figured you got out on the rally. Double no touch. A path dependent exotic option. If 77.00 or 79.65 is touched this week I lose the premium. Paying 100/127 refers to the premium (numerator) and the payout (denom). I earn 27% on the bet if neither barrier is touched. Losing the entire premium if touched.
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ah shit man, you are so far ahead of me I will never catch up. I'll google some of that stuff. Are you talking about binaries? I might have been good at that one time when I was young. I grew up in Indianapolis, and in the fifth grade I had a pool going where when I finally had all the bets covered on the Indy 500 the worst I could do was break even.

but now I am kind of old and slow thinking
 
Quote from oldtime:

ah shit man, you are so far ahead of me I will never catch up. I'll google some of that stuff. Are you talking about binaries? I might have been good at that one time when I was young. I grew up in Indianapolis, and in the fifth grade I had a pool going where when I finally had all the bets covered on the Indy 500 the worst I could do was break even.

but now I am kind of old and slow thinking
More...

Yes, you can think of it in terms of a sports bet.

The risk is convex until the barrier is reached or the option expires. Think of a sport prop-bet analogy in which you're betting on hits per inning in baseball, or a prop O/U. If you're betting on the under at 10.5 and the Mets score 5 in the second (lol) you'll going to take a hit on the marks.
 
when I finally got the whole deal done and started bragging about no matter who won I couldn't lose, the teacher started making a big deal about what a bad guy I was.

But she never understood the risk I had to take to put it all on.
 
not even worth posting this week, hoping the gap would bail me out, but no such luck

everything that sould be up is down
and everything that shoud be down is up

Hit a new account high Thursday (that's getting to be a pattern) but I didn't take it because it was "not enough"

Now I'm on week two with this miserable position

AUD/USD short
EUR/USD short
GBP/USD long
USD/CAD short
 
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