No problem. Just watch the media fools when they turn around. The more the USD falls, the more gains to make.
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No problem. Just watch the media fools when they turn around. The more the USD falls, the more gains to make.
And the same situation is coming to the US at breakneck speed unless we pull out of this recession. Actually, economic growth is the only thing that will save the dollar currently. Everything else is working against it, including the Fed (who are probably scared shitless in private). Look at gold, you think that run is ending or just starting to pick up steam? It is forecasting problems to come.
good article, agree with all of it.
And as for people who say inflation is contained and there is no need to worry:
Just a sample from the article of where commodities have gone:
* Gold has surged almost $300 an ounce from its February low,
* Copper has jumped 188 percent from its recent low,
* Corn has exploded 58 percent,
* Wheat has climbed 65 percent,
* And sugar has risen 90 percent.
This cannot continue, consumers are feeling this already.
Printing money stimulates the economy at the expense of inflation. All the arguments that I read, like in the paper posted, about QE causing commodity prices to rise, are based on fallacies. Was there any QE when commodities hit all time high 3 years ago? None. Is the rally in gold related to upcoming collapse and inflation? Absolutely not. Gold does not rise with inflation, this is wrong thinking and there is no correlation. When gold rose in the early 1980s there was problems both with cornering the silver market and with an energy crisis.
There is a lot of propaganda that drives naive people to buy gold, especially in third world countries. True, from a trader's perspective there is money to be made. But it is largely part of a leftist media propaganda in Europe with a knee-jerk reaction to US QE because that is a solution when they wanted to see USA falling. I think the FED is doing a good job, do not listen to propaganda, prepare for a massive drop in gold soon and a rise in the dollar.
When gold rose in 1980, interest rates were skyhigh as well as inflation. Today, rates are a goose egg with inflation currently being lower. Unlike 1980, gold is rising today due to monetary reasons, which is foreboding and more ominous. I know Wall St. and brokers universally have bashed the metal. I think that is fixing to change.
Nice call... I'm not going to get into multivariate analysis charts but the the standard volatility predicton estimates are pretty convincing for 30 day holding times. If you were to delve into the multivariate analysis the impulse response with the time of the year would add even more cohesion to your trade. Looks like a pretty good time to be a position trader. The chart below is a monte carlo simulation of a 30 day holding period. It's just a linear model so it's better to just think in terms of direction and not specifics. So you have to have rules to trade it. Also keep in mind this doesn't speak for the USD as whole. The other two are pretty straightforward with the last one being a pdf function. of returns