Weinstein Trading and Fading

Quote from Robert Weinstein:

As fate will have it, I went long RIMM today with under an hour before the close.

As many by now know, about an hour and half after the closing bell, Reuters reported Microsoft, Nokia and especially Amazon have taken a look at RIMM to see if there was a deal to be made.

That of course shot the stock higher in after hours trading and likely will have some follow through tomorrow. Hopefully beyond a gap and crap.

So it's currently happy holidays to be and a big thank you to Amazon for the early Christmas gift.
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This is a pure coin flip. You should know better. If it worked you got lucky. Please don't try to convince anybody there is a strategy traking a trade like this.
 
That is not luck. Anyone with a brain can figure out that the IP is worth more than the stock price now. If it wasn't Amazon, it would have been Google or Apple or Microsoft. Everyone had an inkling that below 15 bucks, it was going to draw interest from buyers, and the lower the price went, the more urgency is to buy it before Google or Apple. There was limited downside, the bad news was already out of the bag with their product life cycle delay last week.

Risk is limited. The reward is very high. It's a no brainer to take this trade. Not every trade has to be in some technical indicator. Sometimes, you need to know the fundamentals.
 
RIMM was hardly a coinflip.. as stated above, the R:R was signficantly better than that. the entry was not for a long term investment, just an oversold bounce. the buyout rumors turned it from a 4 footer into a gimme putt..

speaking of which.. bob, won't be in chat much this week, SLV soon?
 
Whatever it takes to convince yourself. Limited risk, fundamentals, everyone saying under 15 it was a screaming buy. I think I have heard that justification once or twice before. Good luck with that.
 
Quote from mastacoli71:

This is a pure coin flip. You should know better. If it worked you got lucky. Please don't try to convince anybody there is a strategy traking a trade like this.
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Hello Mastocoli,

Thanks for reading and for taking the time to share your thoughts.

Actually, I make this type of trade often. I have a setup for it. Granted the news about the buyout really sent the price of the shares higher and that part was luck, BUT without the news, the stock was still expected to move higher (actually the puts shorted where expected to fall in value over the next couple of days).

So no, it was anything but a coin flip (even my lucky coin I so often talk about in the chat toom).

Happy New Year to you and yours

Robert
 
Quote from mastacoli71:

Whatever it takes to convince yourself. Limited risk, fundamentals, everyone saying under 15 it was a screaming buy. I think I have heard that justification once or twice before. Good luck with that.
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Well, it was a good buy. And now that it is near $15, the risk vs. reward now has swung back into getting out of the trade, and booking profits...and finding another stock to trade. It's not pure luck like a coin flip. There was actual fundamental reasons to buy to make a quick profit, and that's what trading is all about. That's all I'm going to say, and leave Robert to run his thread without my drivel anymore.
 
Quote from puddles:

RIMM was hardly a coinflip.. as stated above, the R:R was signficantly better than that. the entry was not for a long term investment, just an oversold bounce. the buyout rumors turned it from a 4 footer into a gimme putt..

speaking of which.. bob, won't be in chat much this week, SLV soon?
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Hey Puddles,

Thanks for your post and for SLV. I guess we missed the bounce with that one but it never fully qualified for me so no opportunity lost for me.

Looking forward to seeing you in the chat this week and getting back into the grove of things.

Should be a fun year

Bob
 
Quote from mastacoli71:

Whatever it takes to convince yourself. Limited risk, fundamentals, everyone saying under 15 it was a screaming buy. I think I have heard that justification once or twice before. Good luck with that.
More...

Hello Mastacoli,

Thanks for reading my journal and for your post.

You may have heard it before but not from Puddles and I. When been busy on the short side with this stock for much of the year.

I wrote several bearish articles about RIMM this year.

The stock was due for a pop ON THAT DAY based on previous stocks in a similar situation. The buyout news just happened to make the pop higher much better. without the news, the odds were in our favor.

Best

Robert
 
Quote from Robert Weinstein:

Hello Mastacoli,

Thanks for reading my journal and for your post.

You may have heard it before but not from Puddles and I. When been busy on the short side with this stock for much of the year.

I wrote several bearish articles about RIMM this year.

The stock was due for a pop ON THAT DAY based on previous stocks in a similar situation. The buyout news just happened to make the pop higher much better. without the news, the odds were in our favor.

Best

Robert
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Robert,

Sorry but nobody has a crystal ball like that. Let me ask you a question, what was your plan if this thing gapped down on you 50% the next day?

Anyhow, not trying to prove you wrong and sounds like you have been having success with taking plays like this. For me, it is not a valid strat.

Good luck in 2012.
 
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