Weinstein Trading and Fading

I have really slowed down my trading lately. It is hard to fade overbought stocks (which is 90%+ of what I do) when the market is going down the drain.

To keep me occupied, or as a distraction from getting more done, I have been trading gold mostly to the short side. I think maybe all to the downside now that I give it some thought. As I write this I am short the Dec contract at 1826.70. Gold has plenty of oversold indicators, and well, plenty of bulls out there as well. I did make a little bit scalping it and hopefully, a lot more as it falls from a cliff while I am away from the computer and not able to leave a large amount of the move on the table.

One of my small (thank goodness) holdings, HPQ, keeps tripping and falling. I am more than ready to let this one go except for one thing. HPQ keeps giving me buy signals. At least I own it in my long term holds, so it is not like I turned a trade into an investment.

My other holding that I am watching today and tomorrow is PCS. I wrote $9 puts when it was trading about $9 a share that expire tomorrow. Today's general market sell off didn't hit PCS in the face like so many others. Looks like I will be in good shape and the options will expire worthless.

COCO continues to pop up on my radar. Wow, talk about a massive sell off. It will not be long and it will be cheaper to buy the company than to go to school there.

Casinos sold off hard today after a big stake in MGM was liquidated. I will be looking towards MGM tomorrow for a long entry as I doubt it will remain in single digits for long if it is not going totally out of biz.
 
Quote from Robert Weinstein:

One of my small (thank goodness) holdings, HPQ, keeps tripping and falling. I am more than ready to let this one go except for one thing. HPQ keeps giving me buy signals. At least I own it in my long term holds, so it is not like I turned a trade into an investment.
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Are your fading signals purely technical? I would think that traders fading extended moves would need to have some fundamentals on their side. I can always understand putting on a trade with the technicals on your side (ie buying higher highs, selling lower lows, despite the fundamental consensus), but I would think picking turns w/o a fundamental angle is just that much harder.
 
I started shorting gold again today. The two highers after a gap up is one of my stronger signals.

No stocks traded today although I looked at a few including COCO, S, HPQ

Decided to hold off on COCO until after earnings, diving deeper into the numbers with S

I made a few bucks with gold but not as much as I wanted. The chart looks like it is going to be the trade of the decade, or at least until next week, whichever comes first
 
Hello illiquid,

For intraday moves, yes it is pure technicals. Often I don't know more than the symbol and the chart. interday moves I generally have more of an idea, but for just a one night stand I don't really need to know her name. I went long INTC and that was 80% fund and 20% (pulling those numbers out of the air but the fund was more important).

I likely will go long COCO tomorrow as a result of both, but that will be for a $1 target gain, regardless of the time.

Best,

Robert



Quote from illiquid:

Are your fading signals purely technical? I would think that traders fading extended moves would need to have some fundamentals on their side. I can always understand putting on a trade with the technicals on your side (ie buying higher highs, selling lower lows, despite the fundamental consensus), but I would think picking turns w/o a fundamental angle is just that much harder.
More...
 
Another good day of trading. I shorted gold yesterday and while I left a lot on the table by closing out to early, I did well. I also shorted gold again after the earthquake was hitting the news. After living in Japan I could tell by what the news was saying that it was not that big. I have been keeping away from news related trading unless its a 'gimmie' and this counted as one in my book.

I was going to buy COCO today after getting a long signal but I was too busy with the gold trade. I will likely buy tomorrow if they are still giving it away cheap. The earnings release was bad by any measurement, but it was already priced in. Today was more panic by those that thought they could flip quickly, or by those that finally threw in the towel. I think they will find they dumped at the worst possible time. I will look to options for a hedge though.

I did find the time to short some INTC puts. The yield on INTC is great and the stock is at a big discount. The market was kind enough to rally for the rest of the day after shorting them. its great when a plan starts out on the right path.

My wrists are making slow progress and I am hoping to get back on the path in January of getting that juris doctorate degree I have been working before I am dead
 
Another pretty good day overall.

While I have cut back on my trading (not much an overbought fader can do in this market). I have found some other worthwhile trades to make.

I been trading a lot more dividend capture trades and now have the software to quickly scan for the best trades. I entered into a covered call trade with DSW to either capture the premium or the dividend.

I bought quite a few GA lotto ticket $7.50 puts on the theory that if they don't pay a declared $3 special dividend the stock will implode. At 20 cents each I might even be ok if they pay it and the dividend buyers run for the exits to quickly.

I wrote a lot of COCO $2 puts about a week ago for the retirement accounts. A lot for those accounts but not a lot overall.

HPQ is still in the dog house for me. Even though its off the lows, its gonna take a while to dig out of this one I fear.
 
Giant Interactive (GA) and why sometimes buying a lotto ticket can be the right thing to do.

GA is paying a $3 dividend per share as a method to "prove" to the market they are legit. Stupidest thing since Clark Griswold decided to take his family to Vegas for a vacation. I go into the reasons in an article I wrote, but I will sum it up as there are many better ways to reach the goal they want.

I believe there is a chance that they don't pay it and simply fold up the tent. Not really good odds for a trade working out, but considering it should pay off about 20 to one, I will take it.

But the best part is if they do pay the dividend, it appears the stock will crash anyway (of course not likely as bad). yesterday the stock sold off in what appears to be investors selling after it went ex-dividend. The only problem for the uninformed is that when a stock gives out a dividend over 25% the rules are different and the first ex-dividend date doesn't count for anything as far as investors are concerned. the ones that will get the dividend are those that own it on the next ex-dividend date in September

If it can sell off that much on a mistake by what should be a relative few, what will it do when everyone heads for the exits at once?

That brings me to the $7.50 puts I bought today for 0.20 each. I estimate that I have at least a 50/50 chance of breaking even or better if they do pay the dividend.

It appears to be a heads I win, tails I break even (or close).
 
still long the GA puts. will find out Monday what it looks like.

I made a ticket in IB asking if the dividend was funded or not. I am not holding my breath for a quality answer.

Still short MCD, long COCO

long covered DSW for dividend capture

Have a good weekend
 
"for just a one night stand I don't really need to know her name"


Lol...I really need to remember this line! Glad to see you back journaling on here :)
 
Not much going on today as I spend much of it working on this site and some longer term opportunities that require lots of research. I just finished reading Trading on Target by Adrienne Toghraie. Great book about dealing with the mental aspects of trading. Worth getting and keeping a copy to read more than once.

Shorted PANL during the first afternoon spike. I was busy trying to get some work done so I shorted $60 calls and kept the size micro sized. I didn't want enough of a position to start focusing on it. I closed it out about half an hour later for a .30 gain per option.

I am still long GA puts and GA fell a little bit today. Closed very close to the strike price. A couple more down days and this may turn out ok. Friday is coming fast though. Speaking of Friday, my Intel puts I wrote are worth a penny and a half now. I am liking that. I see COCO managed to make it back to around $2 today. At some point COCO stock is going to jump to $4 and everyone will wonder why they didn't load up the truck with shares.

DSW continues to be a good trade and Thursday I will find out if I get exercised early or not.
 
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