Weinstein Trading and Fading

Seems like way too much focus on BP. You trade so many different stocks and set ups over the years, now that you took a big hit you seem to be obssessed with trading this stock mainly long as though it has to go higher. Have you converted to just trading BP exclusively or have you morphed into a revenge trading cycle and got married to your positions.

Would hate to see all that hard work and diversified set ups get thrown out over one stock.
 
Quote from QuikrRetirement:

The only wise thing would have been to stay out of it in the first place and not generate theories on something that is only a fool's bet. This does not shine positive light on your or other BP traders' knowledge. No one knows what will happen for a company in this situation, and any day could be good or shocking news that will blow out anyone who also decides to seriously leverage on a BP play.
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I think you bring up some good points. I would add though that this is the nature of our business. In my humble opinion it is as much foolish to believe that anything can not happen at any time with any stock. Enron and Lehman are good examples of two that went away. GE and LVS are two that did not. All of them had stories about how they were going to go under. Look at C. if you bought C at a buck it was all good but LEH and your toast.

BP was all good and I had a few learning experiences with it but I believe I am a much better trader as a result.

Best to you

Robert
 
Quote from Deadwood:

Robert, you've focused a lot of your attention on 1 stock(BP) the last month or so, I'm wondering how much you're up on it?
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Your totally right. I have studied this stock inside and out and I felt that this stock would be in play until this fall. I am currently in a holding pattern with OCT OTM naked puts wrote to collect time premium but otherwise waiting for the next move. I would like to see a retest of the lows again without any major news that changes the game and I will most likely add to my puts.

Perhaps I been watching it to long as I can tell the spill rate increases and decreases by looking at the video as my reference point is pretty good as I know how much of the top hat I should be able to see at any given time : o )

I gained a lot back when Obama was kinda enough to show his hand by telling us that he was going to basically require BP to put money into an escrow. That made it clear a deal was done or just about done between BP and the Administration. I was thrown off a bit by yesterdays first drop and I covered for a large loss but once it was clear the price wasn't in a free fall I loaded up and made it back and had a very good day. While my realized gain was around 2k the swing was much further and I would have done better without the hedges but after last week I wanted to do some CYA.

I am going to be spending the next few days to see what the bonds do and if it still looks good I will buy a few. Nothing big but it will be nice to have some of that yield and I will make sure to buy only the main corporate bonds. IF and I have not checked yet BP issues bonds on the USA assets I would not consider them.

Best

Robert
 
Quote from Mike Okistini:

Seems like way too much focus on BP. You trade so many different stocks and set ups over the years, now that you took a big hit you seem to be obssessed with trading this stock mainly long as though it has to go higher. Have you converted to just trading BP exclusively or have you morphed into a revenge trading cycle and got married to your positions.

Would hate to see all that hard work and diversified set ups get thrown out over one stock.
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I am unsure why you think there was too much focus just on BP? I did the same with GE and LVS (made two trips to vegas and stayed at LVS for my due diligence...)

Also lately I been trading a lot of C and have the stock along with three different option series with it.

With BP I could see mistakes people were making about the risk involved so I made some moves. The funny/crazy/sad thing is that I was only one day early on putting on my big trade. The one day difference would have been about a 30K swing as the next day the stock did gap up as expected. I made some back the next two days but I am ok with how it all turned out. When the odds start getting stacked in your favor I feel one needs to pile it on. Having the odds in my favor does not mean it will work out or it would not be odds it would be a sure thing.

So in short I was focused on BP for well over a month and when BP dies down I will move on to the next crazy stock.

Best

Robert
 
BP largely gets wound down today

I started the process yesterday and finished up today my trading with BP. I still have OCT puts wrote but I do not expect to do much with them absent some large price move (totally possible given BP lately). I would expect that volatility will be dropping and that we will soon see the floor in BP or we already have in terms of the reaction to the Gulf of Mexico. Maybe a few more crazy days before they cap the well or maybe the well capping will go bad. Lots of things between now and the point where the oil stops. Then the fun begins with the hangover. It appears very clear that Obama made a secret deal and I would guess a sweetheart deal to avoid having BP USA avoid bankruptcy. BP still has the civil lawsuits to worry about but I am guessing anyone that takes money from the escrow fund being setup will have to forgo suing. In a situation like this I would guess that mediation by the pay czar is going to be a whole lot better for BP than jury trials.

Currently flat other than holdings in C and BP options
BBBY + 86
BP + 183
BP OPTIONS
JUN31C – 7
JUN32C + 79
JUN 32P + 156
JUL 27.50P + 158
JUL 30P + 90
JUL 32P +39
JUL 33C -244
JUL 35C – 90
JUL 36C – 87
OCT 27.50 + 57
EXPE + 2
IFLG + 3
MTB + 192
NMTI + 30
OVTI + 15
SUN + 116
VG + 15
+ 797
 
Please feel free to mention the bond name, symbol, yield / price, and if you can actually buy it without any problems in IB.

Thanks in advance.

Quote from Robert Weinstein:

Your totally right. I have studied this stock inside and out and I felt that this stock would be in play until this fall. I am currently in a holding pattern with OCT OTM naked puts wrote to collect time premium but otherwise waiting for the next move. I would like to see a retest of the lows again without any major news that changes the game and I will most likely add to my puts.

Perhaps I been watching it to long as I can tell the spill rate increases and decreases by looking at the video as my reference point is pretty good as I know how much of the top hat I should be able to see at any given time : o )

I gained a lot back when Obama was kinda enough to show his hand by telling us that he was going to basically require BP to put money into an escrow. That made it clear a deal was done or just about done between BP and the Administration. I was thrown off a bit by yesterdays first drop and I covered for a large loss but once it was clear the price wasn't in a free fall I loaded up and made it back and had a very good day. While my realized gain was around 2k the swing was much further and I would have done better without the hedges but after last week I wanted to do some CYA.

I am going to be spending the next few days to see what the bonds do and if it still looks good I will buy a few. Nothing big but it will be nice to have some of that yield and I will make sure to buy only the main corporate bonds. IF and I have not checked yet BP issues bonds on the USA assets I would not consider them.

Best

Robert
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Robert thats great, but my question was how much have you made off BP overall?

Quote from Robert Weinstein:

Your totally right. I have studied this stock inside and out and I felt that this stock would be in play until this fall. I am currently in a holding pattern with OCT OTM naked puts wrote to collect time premium but otherwise waiting for the next move. I would like to see a retest of the lows again without any major news that changes the game and I will most likely add to my puts.

Perhaps I been watching it to long as I can tell the spill rate increases and decreases by looking at the video as my reference point is pretty good as I know how much of the top hat I should be able to see at any given time : o )

I gained a lot back when Obama was kinda enough to show his hand by telling us that he was going to basically require BP to put money into an escrow. That made it clear a deal was done or just about done between BP and the Administration. I was thrown off a bit by yesterdays first drop and I covered for a large loss but once it was clear the price wasn't in a free fall I loaded up and made it back and had a very good day. While my realized gain was around 2k the swing was much further and I would have done better without the hedges but after last week I wanted to do some CYA.

I am going to be spending the next few days to see what the bonds do and if it still looks good I will buy a few. Nothing big but it will be nice to have some of that yield and I will make sure to buy only the main corporate bonds. IF and I have not checked yet BP issues bonds on the USA assets I would not consider them.

Best

Robert
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Quote from Deadwood:

Robert thats great, but my question was how much have you made off BP overall?
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Well beyond adding up the amounts that I list everyday like anyone could I would say that I am currently down about 8K using mark to market(more if not as I have open gains). But I am unsure. I was up about 5k before last wednesday when I had my head handed to me by being a day early in my aggressive move long. I was down around 20K using mark to market at my low point.

There are some things I will do different next time (there is always a next time in the markets) but I believe overall my thinking was correct and it just didn't work out. The good news is (or bad depending on how you view it) is that I learn the most it seems when I take a loss. BP is no different. Lots of lessons learned and I have already started to use what I learned or what was reinforced from trading it. As such I do not view this as a bad trade but rather the next step on my journey. That may sound a bit corny but that is really how I feel.

I probably made every mistake in the book and invented a few myself but I can think of no time that I was a better trader or more confident in my skills to be able to generate a gain when I walk into my office tomorrow.

Ask me again in six months how the BP trade worked out for me. I bet the results will be quite a bit different and better. This book is not finished yet.

Best to you Deadwood and I wish you a very good weekend

Robert
 
Spent all day working on option strategies into the close.

I thought it was interesting to see the BP options including both puts and calls fall in price as much as they did. I understand the premium should fall in half over the time from yesterday to today but when you add in also that the IV went down it was even more dramatic.
All of my trades today were option related and otherwise it was somewhat a slow day.
VECO Jun 40P + 75
QQQQ / 47jun put + 12 (done in afterhours)
RIG / RIG 50 call + 153
BP jun 32P + 5
BP jun 33C + 6

options OTM losers
EWZ 67 P – 4
GLD 123C – 8
GOOG 500C – 11
QQQQ 47C – 6
SPY 111P – 6

+ 216
 
Started out kinda crazy

I am glad I came into the office earlier than normal. I also look forward to not having an office and working from home so I can spend more time when it is important to get ready for the day.
I was the proud owner of 200 shares of GOOG that I did not know I bought. TS had a closing price of 499.99 and the official price was 500.03 and my 2 500 calls automatically exercised. The really strange thing is that GOOG went into the money for a short and small amount on Friday in after hours trading but due to software issues with IB I did not cover and then exercise. I had to contact IB customer support in regards to two QQQQ options but that was taken care of and I made a few dollars with that.
As soon as I saw that I owned the GOOG that I did not want to I looked at the price and I was lucky enough to see it trading at 502.50ish. I was up about $500 and I opened and order window with IB to hit the bid and missed it by less than a second so I went to the next one and only had a small partial fill again only missing by a small amount. The third time was a charm and I covered for a nice gain even if it was not as good as I might have had if I noticed it about 30 seconds earlier.
I traded AFFY for much of the day and took a loss as well as holding overnight. I can’t say I feel great about this one but at least the odds are somewhat on my side for at least a price tomorrow that will turn this into a gain. I covered a small amount in afterhours as I tried to trade it some more but there just was not much in terms of volume which did not surprise me. I will be watching it early tomorrow and hopefully the margin calls have been largely dealt with and the downside pressure will have subsided. This one may end up a loser as I will be looking for the exit right after the bell if I am unable to move out in pre-market trading. It seems like a good enough stock at the price but its not my type to invest in. bio-pharma is not my game.
RAH + 2
GOOG + 362
AFFY – 1601

- 1236
 
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