Weinstein Trading and Fading

Quote from Robert Weinstein:

I made some late night trades with futures and some very early trades this morning as well

I ended up running late to the office as I wanted to be short the 30 yr bond but it started moving past my entry I did not leave the house. As it turns out it was the peak of the day but I end up closing out early. Late last night I traded the Canadian dollar which I like long term but I also think near term it may be due for a retracement. I shorted it a couple of times but there was enough buying that it would not give up anything today so I ended up walking away when I was stopped out with a very small gain. Took a loss for the day but NAV is higher today as MEE and options related did well. I am and will be watching UPS tonight and the open.

BTH opened near the HOD yesterday and kept going higher. Volume has dried up so I hung on thinking that if there is no volume to keep it going it will retrace. I did finally do so but not meaningful until late although I was able to trade it back and forth a few times which accounts my my loss. My current basis is almost right at the closing and I will be looking for a drop in price tomorrow. I became somewhat aggressive in shorting at the 54.75ish area and that worked out well short of one problem. I tried to hit an offer for a small cover of 100 shares at about 54.48 with the idea of then offering it out at 54.85ish area and I lifted 300 shares instead. I quickly was able to reshort another 100 shares at 54.59 but became a little conservative and tried to get over 54.60ish for the second 100 shares to balance out where I wanted to be. Right about then is when BTH fell off the cliff I had been waiting on all day and went under by basis and I covered some more on the way down. This should be a good one tomorrow especially if it gaps down but either way I expect to pull a nice gain out of it. Still short enough shares to take a gain that I was looking for. – 487

C covered some C today. I sold at 4.85 which appears a little early based on a price of about 5 in after market trading but I am still long and would like to pull a little off the table going into earnings. This is moving like earnings are going to be great and anything less may put some pressure on it. I will be watching to see if it comes back and if so I will add again as I have done many times with C over the last few weeks. + 119

CETV B8 unqual that broke support trendline and shorted it. I also shorted again when I was willing to hold overnight but only had a few shares lifted so I just took a small gain when it game back in the last minutes of trading + 88

LVS news + 27
MEE covered 100 shares at a loss and now actually a little over covered (less an odd lot of shares) with options. Price moved above my last purchase price and I was either going to cover so shares or sell another call option for friday and decided to just take some off and I could add it back on with a price drop. will be looking to roll over some of the options like the apr 47 calls tomorrow depending on price action. if the stock doesnt go anywhere the time decay will reach a point where the option is no longer protecting from a down move and I will probably roll over to either the next month or to a lower strike price exp on Friday. – 58

PALM, news and long but with very tight stop loss which turned out to be a good thing. + 53

RDN + 4
YUM after market trading. Not very happy that I didn’t hit this a lot harder over 43. stock was clearly priced for good earnings so when it moved over 43 I only shorted 100 shares. I will be watching it at the open but it appears weak already so I am unsure if it will be able to make a run higher tomorrow or not. + 54

ZB 30 yr futs + 17 (frustrating)

ZION + 12

- 170
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I just wanted to give you an 'at-a-boy! :) These are the kinds of days that used to maul your account. So, even though you're down, at least you didn't poop like an elephant. :) Lol
 
Quote from TheAngryHermit:

I just wanted to give you an 'at-a-boy! :) These are the kinds of days that used to maul your account. So, even though you're down, at least you didn't poop like an elephant. :) Lol
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Thanks Hermit : o )
 
Busy day and lots of trading

I ran out of time so I didn’t get to post my results until the next day but it was a tough day will a key mistake in the open.
I had some confusion with bids to cover BTH during the open and ended up pulling most of my bids as I thought many had been doubled up as I had bids entered at my home before I left for the office. So in my rush to “correct and balance” I removed almost all my bids that would have been hit getting my out of BTH at a gain. The gain during the open would have been good enough to more than offset the loss from the day before as well by a small amount. I was at the same time trading another two stocks all at the same time and missed that BTH gapped up intraday and moved higher to never come back.I traded it a few times back and forth but really thought it would fall apart during the day especially into the close. It did not and I took another heavy hit while holding some overnight again. Overall a tough day watching both MEE and BTH move opposite and against me.
BTH – 933

C looked weak and it appeared that it could have some more downside followthrough after the run up so I closed out of C and thought I would buy some more either on Friday if lower or wait until Monday when earnings comes out. C has to really kill it with earnings or I fear that it could have some downward pressure. I would look at a downward move as a chance to buy though and especially so if it moves anywhere in the ball park of $4. + 130

LVS + 4

STEC + 28
UPS + 167
YUM + 7

I also repositioned my MEE options in light of the stock falling further. I covered much of April and moved to May as I want to keep this trade on. Basically what I have is a synthetic naked put which is usually better done cost wise by writing covered calls instead of shorting the puts outright. I pay more in commission by having two transactions but this is more than offset with increased flexibility (including making moves outside regular trading hours) and better fills as puts almost always have a larger spread and lower volume making it difficult to gain an advantage over covered calls. When puts are traded in volume (and they always are when there is a penny spread) and they have a penny spread then writing a simple put normally makes more sense as long as the IV is very close.
MEE calls
45 apl + 364
46 aPL + 77

UPS APR 70C + 20

- 132
 
Wow GS lost about 28 Billion dollars in valuation in about 45 minutes

I was trading the options and I was selling the puts as the IV was running well over 200%. I might next time in the same situation just buy the calls because if GS would have found no support it may have become ugly. As it turned out selling volatility was profitable and options could be traded right up to the final seconds. I can’t wait for an exchange to start offering after hours trading in options. Market makers may not like that idea but the rest of us would do well for it.
I covered most of BTH but held some over the weekend. – 196
GS 155P + 252
GS 160P + 156
GS 165P + 54

MEE 42P + 122
MEE 47C + 137

+ 527
 
Trading results 4/19/10


Good day that looks bad

I traded MEE today several times with an average buy better than sell so the trades turned out to be well done. I also brought my cost basis below the closing price so I am in the green with MEE now. I also wrote options against my MEE long and they are in the money as well. I ended up trading back and forth more than the amount of shares I was holding and I have a realized loss but I also have a large unrealized gain to mostly offset it and I am really liking this trade. I faded the dip well and the closing of MEE was great. So it doesn’t look pretty today but the actual NAV improved nicely. – 1565

AIG long and stopped out + 16
BTH closed this one out. Not a good trade overall even though today was good. I bought and sold today and that included small size but as I looked into this stock the more I liked it for a hold. They have about 25 in cash / share and are making money. Not a big surprise it went as far as it did + 188

C I love vitamin C. I sold off my shares at 4.90 last week and after GS took the dump it did on Friday I decided to watch the earnings and if it was good I would buy. I did buy and traded around the core and now have more C and took a gain. Hopefully next stop will be above $5 as I felt and I guess so did others that the numbers reported well. I have a baseless feeling that perhaps morgan was selling off the Feds shares and that kept it from doing more. I know today would have been a day I would have if I was them. Of course that makes me think all the more better for C. + 80

Traded GS again today but I bought Calls just in case another shoe fell off. With a close eye on the IV I was quick to pull bids and put them on even though I probably paid a lot in fees. I should have done better but I didn’t let any of the trades stay on long and I started out with my first GS trade today taking a $160 stop loss so I feel pretty good about trading it for much of the day and climbing out of the hole. + 25

- 1254
 
Great day today

I had two B8 signals which I hit the top with and while I didn’t have many shares on the second one I was able to do well with the first.
I repositioned by GS trade so that I would give up some gain for better protection from the downside and closed out some to lower the total trade. This was all done during what I would consider very good timing. I closed out the extra shares that did not have options written at a gain and changed over the covered calls before the drop in price so that I was able to ride the move down without getting beat up. C was showing weakness for much of the day and I ended up closing it out at 4.94 and will look to buy more at a lower price. $5 right now seems to be giving some real resistance and with MS selling the Feds C I would not be surprised to see a retrace before going through and staying through 5.
MEE was pretty wild in after-hours trading. Not sure why as I left to go look at a house and will try to get caught up with it tomorrow.
GS looks like they will be once again shown to be the smartest guys in the room. After listening to CNBC radio on the way to the office talk about Paulson Co. making statements that there was a meeting with the counter-party.
C + 177
GS + 51
GS may 150P + 14
GS M165C – 41
IMAX + 209
ZION + 728

+ 1140
 
Quote from LngEnf2NoBetter:

No trading on 4/20?
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Busy time right now and I missed that day. Glad you pointed it out as I use this journal to look back on.

AAPL - 264
C + 73
CYH 1
GS - 758
MEE +26

GS M165C + 87

- 834
 
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