Weinstein Trading and Fading

Hi TheAngryHermit,

well I have to disagree with you about the idiot part but for me I think the KISS method has been what has worked well in the past and is working again for me

Best to you

Robert




Quote from TheAngryHermit:

Bob, I think you are too smart for your own good. Dumb it down a little. Remember you are trading against morons like me. lol You don't need an algorithm to take my money. :D
Good luck again, brother.
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Hi TradeViper,

We were thinking the same thing. Instead of changing the number of stocks I changed the number of setups and cut out the discretionary trading and the clouds have lifted.

I have gone back to the mindset when I walk into my office of "I WILL trade well today" and lost the thinking and worry that I may lose money which of course creates that 'scarred money' attitude that is so destructive

Best to you Viper

Robert



Quote from TradeViper:

Robert, it is evident that you are struggling right now, and it may be time to reassess how and what you are trading. I suggest that you change your focus from so many stocks. Boil it down to the ones you know best, in fact, IMHO you may want to just try trading the Qs for a while. This may help your slump.



The Ever Hating To See People Suffer VIPER
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Hi Placebo,

Thanks for the well wishes and taking the time to post them.

Would you settle for the big profits and fading but only fading the signals that work greatly?

Robert







Quote from Placebo:

here here, would love to see you posting big profits every day Robert. All the very best to you!! (please stop fading).
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Hi yobo,

I really do want to know more about qualifier gap ups that should be taken long. Its a project I have for myself this summer.

I think you have my trading of gaping up stocks in general mixed up with my gapup short signal. My gapup short signal is well over 90% profitably and since I added in the last qualifier about the end of last year I think every one of them has been a winner.

Other trades that I have made that where with stocks that gapped higher have been a problem though and that I am working on. this summer i hope to make some improvements but for now I have adjusted the filter so that the majority of them will not trigger a short sale signal.

Thanks

Robert




Quote from yobo:

We're all rooting for you Robert, but watching you consistently lose is killing us because your decisions/triggers are so wrong.

Take a second look at SNDK and you will see it was a breakout opening gapping above the previous days high and clearly breaking the downward trend line from the high set in January.

You have developed tunnel vision robert and are getting stuck on trying to predict very short term moves based on technical readings or whatever you are doing.

Just stop it. Get away from this crap you are doing.

In regards to gap openings above and below previous days high or low....

Gap ups and gap downs are the easiest trades in the book and you have it wrong. Always follow the direction of the gap and place a stop 2-4 ticks below the previous days close. If the stop is not taken out, than you know you have a winner. Ladder into the trade throughout the day if you wish. If the stops are taken out than the opening trend is not confirmed and you go the other way. The odds however are usually always in the direction of the gap move.

Use you systems and focus simple on this strategy looking for set ups. Don't rush into the trade, give it 15 -45 minutes to develop. Once you are in the trade, let it run. If you get a gift with a big move follow through than take half off keeping your stop at the entry price. Be patient. trading is like watching paint dry. It can get really boring.

This strategy alone will get you back on track.
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Hi Xspurt,

I agree with making changes and qualifiers. I sometimes tighten down the bolts a little tight and than i dont get any trades and if I have them too loose I get to many and sometimes they really run on my. plus they work with multiple time frames wtih some short and some very long and it all has to come together to provide an entry with an edge and someone who can maintain the trade and try to scalp through maximizing the reurn

Best

Robert




Quote from Xspurt:

Yip, a lot of folks want to see you succeed Bob.

My suspicion is that the triggers are right and that is why Bob is so committed to them coming good. The success rate has been high but now more statistics are showing perhaps they are not quite so reliable.

From what I see Bob has not paid enough attention to the bigger time frame of the trigger and this has skewed his test results. My guess is a neutral or volatile market should give superior results and a trend will slowly beat Bob up.

When you have done so much work on a method and it was good for a time you are reluctant to ditch it, and I don't think he should. And I don't think it needs refinement but rather an additional qualifier. Super Strong Trends should not be counter trend traded with Bob's current set ups.
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Quote from Robert Weinstein:

TIVO was a serious test of my trading and I was very happy with my actions / decisions while trading it (and even after when I thought it was more likely to fall into the close but I exited, and then shortly after when I thought it would rally into the close which I did not take as that signal is not ready to trade yet)
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Robert, thank you for your kind words. You sure have followed my zig-zag journey from the nearly start, because I followed your amazing live trading on ET's chat for a couple months before I started day trading and learned a LOT from you.

When you thought TIVO would rally into the close, that was truly a low-risk/high-reward idea. The psychology behind this type of trade is that a lot of counter-trend traders are trapped. So by that last hour decisions have to be made. Day traders who are short these stocks, fading the move, have to cover somewhere and once it's clear that support is well-established, the covering will begin and accelerate as price rises. Add to that the fact that the institutional investors also trade heavily in that final hour and they'll be buying support as well.

You've been limiting the heat you're willing to take on your trades and also limiting your losses to around the $500/trade area. So if you were to take a long position in TIVO Thursday when you had that thought (it was around 15.55 as I recall), and put in a stop just below late day support (15.44), you could put on as much as 4000 shares and still be well within your max loss level.
 
Hi NoDoji,

Yes I totally agree. At some point I will have the final rally trade codified and backtested fully and will add it as a trade. I currently do not have a final hour trading trade and this type looks the most promising to me right now.

We are both on the same page with this type of trade but its not a rule for me so its not a trade either : o )

Next week is my spring break and I may actually get a chance to move forward on some automation towards the end of the week.

Next week will also be my last week of posting on ET until the semester is over so maybe if you don't mind I can direct people to you via PM if they want to find out how to track my results and join us in the chat. I will be making a post either later today or tomorrow about this more.

Have a monster week next week and make big bucks (either real or sim is fine)

Robert




Quote from NoDoji:

Robert, thank you for your kind words. You sure have followed my zig-zag journey from the nearly start, because I followed your amazing live trading on ET's chat for a couple months before I started day trading and learned a LOT from you.

When you thought TIVO would rally into the close, that was truly a low-risk/high-reward idea. The psychology behind this type of trade is that a lot of counter-trend traders are trapped. So by that last hour decisions have to be made. Day traders who are short these stocks, fading the move, have to cover somewhere and once it's clear that support is well-established, the covering will begin and accelerate as price rises. Add to that the fact that the institutional investors also trade heavily in that final hour and they'll be buying support as well.

You've been limiting the heat you're willing to take on your trades and also limiting your losses to around the $500/trade area. So if you were to take a long position in TIVO Thursday when you had that thought (it was around 15.55 as I recall), and put in a stop just below late day support (15.44), you could put on as much as 4000 shares and still be well within your max loss level.
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Quote from Robert Weinstein:

#21

The TIVO long is between concept stage and backtesting stage. I have actually traded this concept and have been talking to others in the chat about almost daily but it is not a signal I will trade again until I am able to backtest and know what my expected return on it is to the best of my ability.

Thanks

Robert
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Do update on your thoughts about it, whenever possible :)
 
Quote from trader#21:

Do update on your thoughts about it, whenever possible :)
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Robert. Your best skill is documenting your trainwreck journey on trying to become a successful trader. Don't stop writing. It really does make for a fascinating read.

If I were you I would make or save a copy of this thread and also create a blog to refer people to. This way you could sell a download version of your journey or begin selling advertising on your blog. People seem to love to follow it.

What the heck. If you can't make money as a trader you might as well make money by selling your story.
 
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