Weinstein Trading and Fading

Hi Brian,

Thanks and I wish you the very best in your trading. It can be really great if you love it. Otherwise its a tough way to make an easy living to quote someone

I stopped posting on t2w due to time restraints and the layout of the site just never meshed well with me although the people on the site where great.

I like ET in how its layed out and the people on here so with a limited amount of time I focus my attention here.

I don't know anyone that makes a living playing roulette....LOL and if there is I would doubt that it would even be 5% with the large vig the casino gets..... (I know you know)

I do know some professional poker players though and I think this is better. No blinds to pay. If someone is willing to they can sit and do nothing until they have pocket AAs before putting their money in the middle. the hard part is waiting it out and even if you get past that point you have to know how hard to push it and when to hit the exit. something I am still working on and I would guess the learning never ends

again, best to you in trading

Robert



Quote from Brianharvey:

good luck dude.
I used to read your journal over on another trading forum.
Everyone knows how practically everyone loses money daytrading and so when you were posting big positive days everyday last year everyone (including myself) just assumed you were full of it! not sure i can mention the site, but its a British one, and the Brits tend to be even more skeptical of someone claiming to be successful!
That's probably why you got no reponses on that particular forum on your journal!

However, openely admitting to your recent losses proves to me that you were not lying. I know that you'll turn the corner again soon and start killing it again.

Im new to trading and the more people I see who are able to consistently profit from daytrading, the more hope it gives me that the few who are successful aren't just the same 5% who you would find could make a living playing roulette due to the variance of luck.
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Hi Nod,


Thanks. I will keep that in mind.

The important thing is to be able to see the system working without using real money : o )

I hope the ATM works wonders and you can buy beer for everyone in the chat for life !!!

Robert



Quote from NoDoji:

Goldman Sachs just raised LXK from "conviction sell" to "sell", so you were actually ahead of the game, selling it yesterday but not having the conviction to hold overnight :D

Mr NoD started the ATM yesterday morning and it did what it was supposed to do - not trade. Turns out he had a minimum account level programmed in and the live account he was using didn't meet the minimum so it never traded. Looks like today or tomorrow will be the test.

A word of warning regarding using IB's demo account to test automated trading. Our system does many of its trades in the first 20-30 minutes and IB sim has big problems with fills during the first 15 mins or so. An awful lot of trades that triggered during testing never filled, so we had to manually review everything day after day to see what "woulda" happened.
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Hi DB,

Yeah seems strange to me. So does a lot of things with IB. It does make me wonder if I should be auditing the records they provide every month. Its not something I do but maybe I should.

Best

Robert



Quote from DblArrow:

As you know IB data is not all inclusive - it is simply a snap shot in time. I have had so many stops hit (futures) with out price showing in either the book or charts that finally calling them - they send out a copy of the time and sales for the time in question and it shows trades executed at the proper price. How price could run through without being filled is a bit of a mystery howerver.
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A good day but left some on the table with a couple.

I started out today in premarket trading with OTEX. I had an offer way above the NBBO get lifted and that started out my day. It appears there was a lot of opening buying orders because the offers were hit fast and hard. I faded the first 15 mins scalping back and forth. about five minutes into trading someone decided they didn’t want to own (or maybe they shorted) OTEX any longer and all my bids were hit at once with over a 50 cent difference between the highest bid which was way under the NBBO and the lowest one which was even more so under the NBBO. perhaps multiple stops triggered I don’t really know.

OTEX It moved back higher again and I started shorting it once more as well as scalping it as it moved around my basis. It fell again and I closed it out with a nice gain. I came back to it with a little more than two hours to go as it was giving a WW short signal. As this stock was so strong today and exploding with volume I almost passed on going back to it with a short. The changer was that the overall market was getting beat up and I thought if it can actually fall some maybe some profits will be taken and or some stops hit. It jerked around quite a bit and I was very watchful for it breaking above a previous bar as I did not want to be short if it ran to new highs. It finally did break down but I was short a small size. I was also stopped out on some of the shares when it retraced before its large move down. I covered at 44.03 only to watch if free fall from there. So I have to give myself a failing grade on the exit as I did not have a reason beyond the PnL (and the thought of it bouncing off the round number ) to exit at 44.03. I would have made another 30 cents or so (I would have been stopped out if not already exited when it came back towards 44). In the end I made a bunch but could have done better. + 638

AGN was a call out from the chat that worked out well. took a couple of stops and only traded 100 share lots with a maximum of 200 shares. + 76

AMED was a WW long that was stopped out + 4
BAC 0

MWW was a tough trade. I really thought it was oversold and especially so after they announced they were buying from yahoo. I took several stabs at it including one very aggressive were a lot of the gain was made. The first time it broke above 13 I bought it just under and as it went higher I added and added to the trade thinking it would go to 14. It stopped short and found 13.50 to be the ceiling on that try. It came back down and as it did I covered. It went to 13 and as it neared 13 I started buying again. once it went under 12.90 though I started looking for the exits and started to stop loss cover which as it turns out was near the LOD. Once it came back higher I no longer wanted to try to be long this or any other aggressively on a day that overall was getting killed. I did make some as it went back higher but kept the size small and missed most of the move to above 14 later in the day. Lastly, I looked at it again in the 13.50 range with less than two hours to go thinking it had a real chance to take a peek at 14 again but I had a good day at that point and with the SPY at the LOD I thought I would leave well enough alone and wait for a better time/trade. + 234

NOC was frustrating. A call out from the chat that I joined in with. I sold a little above 60 and thought I was going to do well even with 100 shares but it came back and I was stopped out before it fell off a cliff. Everyone else did well but this one didn’t work out well for me. + 9

TM was beat up big time again today. I took a couple of what ended up to be scalps as I was stopped out both times. Looking at the chart today all it did was move back and forth in the opening range. It is also a gap plus one so I wrote a couple of feb 65 puts to hold for a few days while things settle down and the IV goes down. + 39

+ 1003
- 722 Month
 
Hi B

Good for you... hope everything is working well for you... Family is most important! ... that's why after 6-month of helping me..i'm sponsoring my good assistant asked him to bring his wife and children here to be with him...his children now go to international school here and his wife is a happy "tai-tai" (happy house-wife) here ... with maid helping her with house-hold chores ...she's one happy woman taking flower arrangement class, mandarin class, playing "majong" (i can trade well but i don't even know how to play "majong" sigh! ... but i am very happy for them :)


Quote from Robert Weinstein:

Hi S,

Thanks and interesting post.

I am not planning on changing from a trader to lawyer. Its something I always wanted to do and I have the opportunity to do so. Also as you pointed out the failure rate is high in this business and at the very least its good to have a plan 'B' when you have a family.

So far going back to school has been a two way street with trading. It takes a lot of time but I have learned some things that have been very helpful that I would not have learned otherwise. I have no regrets for going back to school and thankful that I have a family that supports me and the ability to do so.
Best to you

Robert
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Thanks Sam, (ni shi Sam dui ma?)

Glad things are going well for you. Sounds like your back from NYC. I hope that worked out well.

'tai tai'...lol wo dong tai tai

Have a great weekend 'he hao yun'

Robert







Quote from ~~~:

Hi B

Good for you... hope everything is working well for you... Family is most important! ... that's why after 6-month of helping me..i'm sponsoring my good assistant asked him to bring his wife and children here to be with him...his children now go to international school here and his wife is a happy "tai-tai" (happy house-wife) here ... with maid helping her with house-hold chores ...she's one happy woman taking flower arrangement class, mandarin class, playing "majong" (i can trade well but i don't even know how to play "majong" sigh! ... but i am very happy for them :)
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I should have taken stops today. What an awful day. I blew out much of my account and I am probably done at this point at least for a while.

Well not so fast. I guess I did take my stops and in the end I took a loss but it was not too terrible. (hey its Friday and I can have a sense of humor too ....)

I just could not get a handle on UPL, sold at the bottom of the first move down only to buy it back up as it moved to the top where I completed the buying which just happened to be the top of the move. This went back and forth several times which resulted in losses racking up. The other trades today worked out ok less FCX.

UPL started out like I said as a short and then it turned into a long and then a short and back and forth. I did end up getting some of it back on the last large leg up. To top it off I even shorted near the EOD and was able to get a very small amount from that. While the total is pretty large it was 200 and 300 at a time. This stock simply had my number today and There was not much I could do about it. I did almost trade USO at one point as that was oversold as well but stayed with UPL. I would have guessed that they would have stayed closer together but it took until the end of day for the differences to merge. Someone with experience with pair trading might have done well with that trade. I don’t know enough so I didn’t consider it past the thought that it might have been a good trade. I will say for as bad as UPL was I did take stop losses while trading through the trade. This allowed me to stay with the trade while becoming smaller and smaller as it went against me. While this method normally ends as a loss it also keeps the trade from getting really nasty as well. – 1128

APD was was oversold I thought in light of the company breaking out the checkbook to buy other companies. Just a small size trade at the open of 100 shares that just about netted a dollar each share. + 98

ARG was overbought even in premarket. with an offer to buy of 60 and a hope of getting more when APD was getting hammered for its offer seemed like a good risk to reward. I shorted and it started to go my way and came back and I took the stop. It did end up falling for much of the day but at the time I put on a 100 share trade and kept a tight stop loss. when it when in the green I moved the stop to just better than green and sure enough it was hit before falling further. + 9

FCX was an ok trade that I made a few dollars in but went to the cookie jar to many times. I had a small gain but closed out half of the short in after hours for a loss which took the gain. I still have my bid in and perhaps it will get hit. If not I am ok holding what amounts to a very small gold short over the weekend. -2

LINE oversold long. + 64

MDVN overbought short. new method of qualifying that I need to come up with an official name for. For now I will call it MW signal. Its still new so I kept the shares light. Does show a lot of promise in backtesting. Its not a new signal in concept but new in my ability to scan for it. I expect to be making several of these trades per week + 102

TM puts. Still short the Feb 65 puts but I did put a bid in at .25 thinking it might get hit. I sold them for .76 so I thought for one day that would be worth walking away. The LOD was .25 but surprise surpise with IB my bid was not hit. I don’t have a a factual basis for this but it sure feels like its rare to get hit first even when first to enter at a price point. I understand there are multiple venues of the marketplacebut since IB generally puts limit orders on CBOE from my experience which also happens to have much higher change of order fees it would seem that at least I would be getting hit more in relation to my timing of order entry. Looks like the options will be live until next week in which I would expect to close them out by the end of next week. The IV does not appear to have changed much although the price of TM sure did move nicely today. Looks like next time I better do a better job of calculating the relative IV for the move I expect. I think the biggest problem was waiting as long as I did to selll them. In the AM the IV was much higher as the stock was hitting new lows below the previous days low. The problem with that is like everyone else I don’t really know when it will stop so I have to wait until near the close to calculate the expected result on the following day. It appears everyone else did too…… true numbers for the are not good but I guess this is part of the business minus eighthundredfiftyfour for the day and minus 1576 month. The numbers below are just for fun for those crossing their fingers in being able to read my destruction everyday.

- 27622
- 28344 Month

Have a good weekend everyone
 
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