robert. a friendly word of advice. this fighting the market and getting steamrolled kind of trading will eventually take an emotional toll on your ability to trade that will be hard to repair.
Weinstein Trading and Fading
- Thread starter Robert Weinstein
- Start date
I just want to wish Robert and everyone a Merry Christmas and another profitable year in 2010!
Why do you want to move to Nevada??
Bob, I've read your post for sometime with interest because I was right where you are now. I know you don't want to hear it and nothing I say will convince you but my trading changed the day I realized a few simple things.
1. "signals" are stupid and no real traders that I know of making consistent returns use them. Instead they view signal followers as the poster childern of naivety.
2. Trading a stock when you don't understand whats driving the price action almost always ends badly.
3. Trading a stock that isn't acting the way you think it should almost always ends badly.
4. Shorting weakness is always better than shorting strength when it comes to hitting a runner. For example, you don't go into a SNDK until the mo-mo breaks (assuming thats the reason for the run in the first place).
5. You can't make 4 $15 gains and take 7k losses. Frankly, a $15 trade isn't a winner, it's a breakeven. So is a $200 or $300 trade if your taking 7K losses as often as you do.
6. Adding to losers is almost always a bad idea unless you really understand the company.
I wish you the best
1. "signals" are stupid and no real traders that I know of making consistent returns use them. Instead they view signal followers as the poster childern of naivety.
2. Trading a stock when you don't understand whats driving the price action almost always ends badly.
3. Trading a stock that isn't acting the way you think it should almost always ends badly.
4. Shorting weakness is always better than shorting strength when it comes to hitting a runner. For example, you don't go into a SNDK until the mo-mo breaks (assuming thats the reason for the run in the first place).
5. You can't make 4 $15 gains and take 7k losses. Frankly, a $15 trade isn't a winner, it's a breakeven. So is a $200 or $300 trade if your taking 7K losses as often as you do.
6. Adding to losers is almost always a bad idea unless you really understand the company.
I wish you the best
Hello Robert,
Fading is a valid strategy, and it is also more than 50% of my trade. However, averaging down is a loser's game. This kind of cost basis thinking is fatal to a trader in the long term. The simple truth is that the larger the loss, the more difficult to cut, and we NEVER know what is too high or too low. The only sure thing is the market can do anything at any moment.
Happy holidays to you and your family and hope the new year will bring a better year for you!
neke feels your pain this week: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=150396&perpage=6&pagenumber=142
Don't listen this crap Robert. Signals that have been back tested and forward tested, do in fact work. Its called having an edge.
The problem for me sometimes is making sure I understand what the signal is. I was reading a new technical book and decided to try one of their setups with just 1 contract of real money, of course it did not work, but I had my stop set, and did not move it.
Today, I went into a short using my own signal, and made money. The goal is always to have at least an emergency stop. What's funny is the market was only able to go .50 higher after stopping me out on that trade, but since it was counter trend, my strategy calls for me not to add to the trade. I got another counter trend signal today and took it real money even though the market was lower than when I got stopped out, and it worked out. I saw it was not going to run, so took what the market would give me before it reversed. No reason to be stubborn because I lost money on the previous trade, to push on this trade. All trades need to be treated as new trades. I was glad I did not push since the market then did in fact reverse back to the upside all the way back to where I was previously stopped out. My New Year's resolution, not to try new trades with real money until I test them 1st on sim.
The problem for me sometimes is making sure I understand what the signal is. I was reading a new technical book and decided to try one of their setups with just 1 contract of real money, of course it did not work, but I had my stop set, and did not move it.
Today, I went into a short using my own signal, and made money. The goal is always to have at least an emergency stop. What's funny is the market was only able to go .50 higher after stopping me out on that trade, but since it was counter trend, my strategy calls for me not to add to the trade. I got another counter trend signal today and took it real money even though the market was lower than when I got stopped out, and it worked out. I saw it was not going to run, so took what the market would give me before it reversed. No reason to be stubborn because I lost money on the previous trade, to push on this trade. All trades need to be treated as new trades. I was glad I did not push since the market then did in fact reverse back to the upside all the way back to where I was previously stopped out. My New Year's resolution, not to try new trades with real money until I test them 1st on sim.
From time to time I look in here to see how you are doing and always hope for the best. You are brutally honest and that appeals and you sure stick your neck out. Here's my suggestion re. SNDK.
Bob, you need to step back and look at the bigger picture. Sure SNDK has had an unusual run up, but on the weekly chart it isn't even tired yet.
On the daily it's repeatedly opening gap up and 30 was a major resistance. Poking through 30 this thing could easily test it's all time highs if it breaks 33.50.
Looking at the 30 min chart I see the same as the daily and weekly - exceptional strength. It's broken up through a topside trendline in the last half hour. Trying to fade momentum like this is strange when you are missing screamers to the long side.
If you were to add long signals you'd kill this market but you are too narrow in interpreting what you see.
But I wish you all the best for Monday, Xmas and good things for 2010.
Bob, you need to step back and look at the bigger picture. Sure SNDK has had an unusual run up, but on the weekly chart it isn't even tired yet.
On the daily it's repeatedly opening gap up and 30 was a major resistance. Poking through 30 this thing could easily test it's all time highs if it breaks 33.50.
Looking at the 30 min chart I see the same as the daily and weekly - exceptional strength. It's broken up through a topside trendline in the last half hour. Trying to fade momentum like this is strange when you are missing screamers to the long side.
If you were to add long signals you'd kill this market but you are too narrow in interpreting what you see.
But I wish you all the best for Monday, Xmas and good things for 2010.
Here is your mistake with Sandisk. December and January are the two strongest months of the year. Technology related issues seem to outperform during those times.
My expectation is that at some point in the next 2-3 weeks San Disk will indeed be a sell falling a good percentage very fast. Same with Apple and Goog.
Right now, there is lots of good spirit with the holidays and trying to fade such picks before Christmas is foolish. However, after Christmas is a whole new ballgame. I am shorting Goog and Aapl at the present time with tight stops. If my stops go off, then I will eagerly wait a few more days and see where I can start shorting again.
Traders know that technology will become a sell between now and mid-January. Its tough picking a top, but someone has got to do it.
My expectation is that at some point in the next 2-3 weeks San Disk will indeed be a sell falling a good percentage very fast. Same with Apple and Goog.
Right now, there is lots of good spirit with the holidays and trying to fade such picks before Christmas is foolish. However, after Christmas is a whole new ballgame. I am shorting Goog and Aapl at the present time with tight stops. If my stops go off, then I will eagerly wait a few more days and see where I can start shorting again.
Traders know that technology will become a sell between now and mid-January. Its tough picking a top, but someone has got to do it.