Weinstein Trading and Fading

Quick update of SEPR

I watched the Tokyo market with the buyer and while they did climb in price on the news they fell from there as the day went on until I went to bed.

the calculated buyout price with a an offer of 2.7 billion dollars came in at somewhere between 23 and 26.50 depending on how you calculated debt and some other expenses. I then took off for the usual discount a stock will trade from the offer price of 50 cents to 1.25 and came up with a trading range of about 22-26

My best guess was about 23.24 based on the last news release that I read giving me a trading price today of about 22.50 - 23.50.

In fact when I woke up I went to the computer to see if it had started trading again and at what price. it was trading at 22.80 with a bid at .79 and a small offer at .80

Having my price at .84 for the short I covered all but 200 shares at .80 to basically flatten out. I wanted to see what the market was doing with the remainder and it was flat to moving higher. I then bid .80 to close out the last two hundred shares and became flat after making a small gain

I didnt really make as much as I wanted to on this trade but having a tails I win, heads i break even isn't all bad either.

out SEPR + 47
 
Quote from Madison:

Robert - I'm sure you'll iron out your recent drawdowns, but I'll offer my advice for the interim: stop trading AIG.

Whatever the reason, there appears to be some fundamental conflict between your trading system and the AIG price action now, and you run the risk of letting emotion dictate your trades in this name now, after this month's events. This is always a bad situation, but it's potentially disastrous given the magnitude of the moves we've been seeing. Best to step back and regroup.

JMHO of course, and best of luck. :cool:
More...

Hello Madison,

Thanks for taking the time to post and I appreciate your thoughts.

I can't agree more about allowing emotion getting in the way as many rules were broken and it turned into amateur hour for too many days.

With that being said I still maintain that AIG was not the problem and if I follow my trading plan I would have and will continue to be fine.

I think when things are going bad we must first look inside ourselfs and see if we are doing something different/wrong. If one can say that they are following the rules then its time to look for outside reasons. I can say that its all been about me and the errors I have made.

If AIG gives me a signal to trade it today I will not hesitate but I will do it by the book and I think that will either leave me with a small loss or with more likely a gain.

Best to you

Robert
 
Quote from Love Trading:

RW.

Have been following your journal from the beginning, and I am sure you will be up at no time.

I think it has more to do with position size than price action. I faded AIG today too and what I found out is that because of the large percentage move, we should adjust our position size accordingly, so when scaling in/out you do not let your emotion involved. Do not be deceived by the share numbers, play with 200 shares will win/lose thousands on a day like this. If you want to trade AIG, trade small.

Just a thought.
More...

Hello Love Trading,

(cool handle BTW)

I totally agree with you. What worked in size before my HAR drawdown doesn't work in relation to my captial now. down sizing has brought me back to my slow but steady approach and it works.

I hope your trading goes well and best to you

Robert
 
Quote from kxvid:

Mix it up a bit Rob. Fading big gaps isn't going to butter your bread in a quasi bull market. Also watch out for short squeeze stocks like AIG, might as well go to a casino than trade them long or short.
More...

Hello kxvid,

thanks for your post and thanks for your ideas. I would agree that some of my trading with AIG was no better than going to Vegas.

I have scaled back my trading size even with low dollar stocks and that has allowed me to make money even with SEPR that was bought out.

Thanks again

Robert
 
Quote from Trend Fader:

Great journal - how much are you up for the year so far?
More...

Hello Trend Fader,

Thanks for saying so. the journal has been a lot of help to me.

I am currently totally flat as of this post and I have gains for the year that are greater than 25K as the end of Aug and I have been up over 150K for the year at the highest point. I may have been down for the year intraday during the first few days of Jan but I actually dont recall ever being down for the year (havent checked either as its not that important to me either way)

about four months to go for the year : o )

Best to you

Robert
 
slow day today but gold sure moved higher

natural gas hit seven year lows while gold was stronger today. I did end up trading a couple of gold stocks with modest success.

After carrying over SEPR and watching the news about it last night I went to bed thinking that I probably was not going to take a large loss with it. For one I didn’t have very many shares and secondly the offer put the expected per share price not that much higher my short basis. turns out I was in luck when I woke up and checked on it. It was trading at 22.79 bid and 22.80 ask and I covered at 22.80 with a gain of four cents. Not a big gain but for having a stock short halted and having to hold overnight I felt it was one that I will call a nice winner.

Otherwise it was just another day of trading small and really nothing moving against me strongly either. I did not trade any open gaps although I came close on one or two.

SEPR + 47
IAG + 38
AEM + 109

+ 195 Day
+ 864 Week Month
 
Quote from nesyo03:

Unfortunately this is what I was afraid was going to happen. Its definitely time to go back to the drawing board before its too late. Risk management needs to be a lot better and the risk/reward ratio should be looked at as well. You seem like a smart enough guy to find a way to trade with these elements, which are crucial for lasting in the markets. Your strategy now can work if you have unlimited funds, yet the pain you would have to endure would not be worth trading. Best luck to you and your trading.
More...

Hello Nesyo03,

Thanks for your post and I could not agree more.

I have stopped discretionary trading and cut my size back. actually cut my size WAY back.

this proved to be a saving move with SEPR yesterday as I moved into it very slow and ended up with a win even though it moved far against my original amount that i could enter at.

Best to you

Robert
 
Pretty slow day today

I was able to get a couple of trades and the day went well. I was frustrated with IB and the non ability to short JAZZ when I wanted to. I ended up selling call options instead but the volume is so small and the MM spreads are big enough to drive a truck through. I hope when BATS gets into the option game that they don’t make non MM second class citizens like the rest do. I think it would be great to expand the volume and the marketplace of options by opening up to everyone the ability to have open orders on both sides. Would be great for traders but bad for the insiders so I won’t hold my breath.

gap up

ULTA + 396

SPPI and JAZZ where overbought signals
SPPI + 215
JAZZ sep 7.5 calls + 146

+ 758
+ 1622 Week Month
 

Attachments

Hi Robert
Its always a joy to watch you post your daily results and commentary Robert. Keep up the good work.

I was just wondering also that you trade options....Forgive me if this has been asked before of you but what was the process you undertook to learn about Options trading and can you reccommend any reading material ?

Thanks again Robert

All the Best
John
 
Weinstein Capital is pleased to announce the expansion of our trading desk.

Michael Weinstein 8 lbs 3 oz is currently buy-side training and Mom and Michael are doing well.

I will follow up tomorrow with some pics of him and his "trading desk"

I am one happy (and a little tired) dad
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top