Weinstein Trading and Fading

Quote from lolatency:

If you're fading stocks like AM, how do you guarantee that a burst of flow doesn't come in and thump you? Are you making discretionary trades based on the time and sales and depth of book while counting on retail flow to dive in and take your offer?

Who exactly is offering liquidity on a name like this on a day like this? I guess it's on the NYSE, so the specialist firm; however, I am not fully seeing how you can be comfortable in a stock whose book could be blown out by one massive trade, like at 3:30 there.
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Hello LoLatency,

"If you're fading stocks like AM, how do you guarantee that a burst of flow doesn't come in and thump you? " Good question and one that people should think about regardless of entry signal. the quick answer is that there is no guarantee that I will not lose on any given trade. also if you look at my PnL you can see at times I have taken some pretty big hits when I do get 'thumped'.

For me thats not as important as having an edge and ending up the month/year in the green while maintaining a reasonable risk to ruin %.

I both discretionary trade as well as use mechanical trading setups in my trading.

Who is adding liquidity? Well I am as I sell on the offer and buy on the bid as a general rule.

"I am not fully seeing how you can be comfortable in a stock whose book could be blown out by one massive trade, like at 3:30 there." - I am 'comfortable' in my trades as I believe in my backtesting as a means of finding an edge. the use of the word comfortable is interesting as its not a word I would use to describe successful trading. Its been my experience that most 'comfortable' trades for most people are the wrong trade (letting losers run and limiting
winners)

Best to you and have a great weekend

RW
 
Not a very busy day today. I did watch C-Span online and watched some of the house debate

Of course I am against the cap and tax measure but as I write this it appears there will be a vote on it later today and if there is going to be a vote most likely it will pass.

I did have some trades today and one really nice one. I also covered much of WLT my holdover from yesterday that I shorted into the close.

WLT + 647

PWRD was a stock called out in the chat so I would like to say thanks to Sun789 for pointing it out. PWRD is normally too thin of a stock to trade but the volume has really built up in the last few days so when it was overbought and giving me a short signal I went in slow and small. PWRD turned into a very nice short.

PWRD + 498

MR went on fire and I put some size on it as it moved higher. Once it broke it didn’t look back. I thought I was going to be able to scalp a lot more than I did but of course I am still very happy with how it turned out.

MR + 3319

I also shorted AM with about an hour to go in the trading day. I wanted to short in some size but the volume really dried up so I only put on a small sized short.

+ 4465
+ 16450 Week
+ 58413 Month
 

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RW -
I 'm impressed by your record & especially by the LM trade you made - Congratulations !!

I'm also echoing another poster who felt some info on your general methods would be helpful.

Is it similar to Bulkowski's inverse dead cat bounce ?
 
Quote from QQQBALL:

Crushing it!

congrats!
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Hello QQQBall,

Thanks for taking the time to post. Its been a great run this year.

Rounders is one of my favorite movies

'You vant a kookie?' : o )

Robert
 
Quote from Robert Weinstein:

Hello QQQBall,

Thanks for taking the time to post. Its been a great run this year.

Rounders is one of my favorite movies

'You vant a kookie?' : o )

Robert
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just don't forget:

I can splash the pot anytime I want to!

:p
 
Quote from maxxy:

Hello,

This is a nice thread. I think it would be more helpful if you could post some logic as to why you made the various trades. Just posting up some numbers doesnt really help.

I did reverse engineer a few of your trades and concluded one of your main strategies is Bulkowski's inverse dead cat bounce. This is where price gaps up and turns right around as outlined in the attached link.

This simple high probability strategy does work fairly well.

http://thepatternsite.com/idcb.html
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Hello Maxxy,

Thanks for your kind words as well as taking the time to post.

Bulkowski's work has not been a factor in my setup development but the concept of over extended stocks is similar. Finding tops and fading over extended moves was first brought to my attention by reading the Tom Demark books.

while I don't use Mr. Demarks indicators directly, I really believe in the idea of selling at the ask and buying at the bid. I also believe in selling when everyone else is buying (fading).

I would highly recommend reading Mr. Demarks books to gain a full understanding of how I am trading.

Respectfully,

Robert
 
I wasn’t expecting much today

I did get more than I thought I bargined for with FUQI. I was fading/scalping it during the open and IB ran out of shares to short. This was a problem as I was not able to trade as I expected to be able to. In all fairness to IB it is a pretty thin stock until recently and other brokers did not have it available based on feedback in the chat. I did trade it in two seperate series but I did not get target on either. I ended up just scalping for smaller gains and while that worked out it was frustrating non the less. On the third short for the day I was of the feeling that the price would break down but worried that I could not trade my own way caused me to take a 15 cent gain and call it good. As fate would have it, the stock did break down about five minutes later and I would have been able to make a full target but it was only 350 shares and the volume was drying up so I do feel like I made the right choice.

FUQI + 1542

MED had some good news out from Friday trading and moved higher as a gap and was able to climb further. I stayed very small in it.
MED + 102

AM was my hold over from Friday and I scalped a few shares as well as stay small as the volume dried up. Holding overnight for a bigger retracement
AM + 16

+ 1661 Day / Week
+ 60074 Month
 

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Today should be called travel results instead of trading results.

My wife called me more times today over plans to go to Tahoe and San Francisco today than she has called me total in the last three months.

Looks like we are going to go for a week as this is her last chance to go anywhere on a jet before my next son is born.

Other than looking at the emails of the hotels etc… that she sent me I also managed to make a trade or two in an attempt to try to pay for this upcoming trip.

Still trying to make a buck or two with AM but it was again acting very strong. I am holding it over but I did manage to scalp a few dollars out of it as well.
AM + 6

I faded the APOL move higher today and that worked out well. I kept my size small as its a pretty big dollar stock
APOL + 615

FUQI gave me another signal today and once again I ran into a problem borrowing shares to short. It would have turned into a very big winner for me had I been able to step on it but that was not to be.

FUQI + 76

In after hours trading MYGN was brought to my attention by MadBadger in the chat room and I made a few bucks with a quick trade. Thanks Mad !!

MYGN + 311

+ 1009 Day
+ 61083 Month
+ 112,000 Quarter (not exact)
 

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