Weinstein Trading and Fading

A monster of a good day today.

I exited my one night stand with BKI early today but I should have let her stick around longer. I had no idea the high of the day was going to be right at the open. Even if I had I was out even before the open so it was double bad. My bids were hit before I made it to my computer today. Lesson learned that is for sure. When the market gives you a super sized layup you better take it for all you can get. The pattern with BKI is something that only happens maybe two or three times a year. I was thinking I would punch the pedal to the floor if it gapped higher today. That turned out to be slightly to cautious for sure. By the end of the day I was happy to be getting close to the end of the month with such a great start to the year I sent it to the back of my thoughts quickly.
ARAY was interesting. ARAY technically gave me a sell signal at 9.45(the HOD) but I thought I would hold out for 9.49. While it was sitting there around 9.40+ I noticed that it was up over 30% and I had a slight break in what I was doing so I decided to check on the news. In the course of looking at the fundamentals I uncovered that the stock was trading at some crazy monkey math of a 300PE and that forward PE was possibly north of 100. This became a no brainer at that point. I started shorting it (and feeling dumb for not getting 9.45 when I could have) around 9.25ish and kept hitting it. I went much larger than I normally would by following it down and I held longer than I would also. I ended up covering most of it near 9.05 and some below 9. It turned into my best trade of the day and it almost was a no trade. I guess sometimes it pays to read the spin of the day to see why people are going nuts. CRUS was one in my radar yesterday and today I shorted it and did alright. It only I would have known it was going to be such a negative day in advance I would have held this one longer too. I did manage to make full target so I am probably going to have a tough time getting anyone to feel sorry for me with that trade.
RAX, another short based on the Laurel gap up signal. I am starting to sound like a broken record but again made full target and still left a lot on the table. WERN was my other one nighter for the three some and she was ready to party like BKI but being a much smaller one she didn’t put out as much.
Then came along this big beast ugly monster. I was able to spend a lot of time with this one as MWW reported earnings last night and picked the wrong day to not blow away earnings. Down over 25% and near the end of the day I started putting on a long position as I had time all day to read the quarterly 8-K filing and it simply was not that bad. IV jumped on the options and I ended up long MWW stock and short MWW March 15 strike puts. I guess Monday I find out if taking a monster home for the weekend turns out to be a good idea or not.
ARAY + 567
BKI + 188
CRUS + 244
MWW + 1
RAX + 305
WERN + 97
+1404
 
Leave it to IB to actually have customer worse than normal. While I didn't think it was possible IB was able to find a way.......

Good luck to anyone needing to contact IB customer service. Might as well just put a gun to your head. It will be faster and less painful


To all traders:
Wed Feb 2 09:05:24 2011 EST

Due to conditions outside our control, the US customer service center is unable to provide normal customer support and there may be extensive delays in our call response times. If you have an inquiry that is not urgent, we kindly ask you to defer calls until later today or tomorrow. Alternatively, you may register your inquiry using the Ticket Management System located in Account Management (also reachable directly from TWS).
For urgent issues, you may also directly access one of our international call centers (Canada, Europe). Access numbers are available on the following link: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/p.php?f=customerService
Updated information will be posted to: http://ibkb.interactivebrokers.com/node/1676
We apologize for the inconvenience this may cause.
IB Customer Service
 
Trading results 2/1/11
Posted on February 1, 2011 by Robert Weinstein

After just completing the best trading month so far this year I knew the pressure would start right away today.

My short with NPSP worked out with double pleasure. I wrote an article that was published in super fast speed and actually made it to the wire before the open of NPSP. http://seekingalpha.com/article/249922-nps-pharma-s-stock-price-is-getting-ahead-of-company-value
As a result of the NPSP article I was able to see new members joining the “Weinstein haters mutual support group”. People sure don’t enjoy reading about how their stock is overpriced like they used to. In fairness I did close out a little early but I am happy with how it worked out. I closed out some of my MTG long via options.
Near the end of the day Borders finally puked and news hit the wire that they are going to file for protection and that they stopped some payments like rent and vendor payments to protect their cash flow. According to FlyOnTheWall GE finance is going to provide a senior secured credit facility. We all know how this game plays out. Stockholders get diluted to the point that the paper used to make the end of the month broker statement is worth more than the stock. I shorted hard and fast and it was not easy when the pricing went to 100th of a penny. Normally a DOM trade entry tool is great but not so with this type of trade. I currently ended the day with a short of 2200 shares that I expect to hold until Monday. My best guess is that Borders will file on Friday giving time over the weekend to reset by the open on Monday. After the actual filing I would expect to see the stock trade down to under $.20 a share.
FMCN gave me a William B9 signal and I shorted it but I was not able to get any size with it.
PCX wow, and wow. I don’t get handed meatballs like this often but I shorted into the close when buyers thought it was a good idea to get aggressive in getting shares. PCX started out being a William B9 and then after making a reasonable gain today with it PCX moved back up to near the high. I started smiling at her and then took her home for a one night stand. The same can be said about her sister TIBX. I made a little bit into the close from that short that was never closed out.
VRX gave me a Laurel short signal after gapping higher today. I did well with it and no complaints with this low risk short.
I look forward to hopefully waking up and seeing PCX and TIBX open a dollar or more lower. I didn’t jam the gears to hard. I saved some powder so that if they gap higher at the open I will jam the gears hard without burning up my buying power for other possible trades at the open.
Today was also a special day for me with Yahoo. I had my first article with Yahoo published today. I hope to write more including writing about penny stock pumps that are fake to warn people to avoid them. http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/6245950/obama_playing_chinese_checkers_when.html?cat=3
COCO reported and gave about as good as could be expected. The market liked the news and the price did not move up to much to quickly. A very serious strong base is building and I will be looking to add to my long in the next week to options expiration. I am currently over-weight in my IRAs with COCO and have a very small position in my trading account.
BGP + 125
FMCN + 82
MTG Feb 8 put + 39
NPSP + 733
PCX + 196
TA + 286 Brenton gap
TIBX + 117
VRX + 244
+ 1824
 
I had the privilege of finally meeting my new and great neighbors during a neighborhood get-together to watch the Packers take on the Steelers. yesterday was followed up with another good day of trading.

TA one of my weekend carryovers started out my trading today. I did not see anything in premarket action that made me want to initiate any new trades so I just kept the powder dry until after the bell. TA opened up lower and proceeded to move lower allowing me to cover my position with a gain. I didn’t capture as much as I would’ve liked to but it was a good start to the day. CCME issued a press release announcing the negative Internet posts attacking the stock. After what appeared to be a good open the buzz on the street was that the response was very weak and was not giving investors the confidence they were looking for. After coming close to the 90 day moving average CCME started to fall back. By the end of the day CCME closed right at the 200 day moving average. I covered the puts that I wrote last week during the first move higher after the bell.
BIG moved up very quickly with heavy volume towards the end of the trading day today. I traded a couple hundred shares in after-hours looking to hold overnight but when the price move back down almost to my profit target area that I shorted it intra-day I decided to just flatten out and chalk it up as a winner.
GCI was my big trade for the day. I received a William short signal and put a fair amount of size on it. It did run a little further than I thought it would but he quickly came back. Also when I exited the trade it continued much further than my target.
MTW is an overnight call options short that I have. I ended up adding to my short option position and I traded the stock as well today. I flattened out the stock position but remain approximately break even and short the call options.
CGI was a typo and I closed it out immediately after realizing what I did. Fortunately this typo/mistake wasn’t an expensive lesson in how to have attention to detail.
TWI was a William B7 signal for 100 shares that reached full target.
BIG +82
CCME Feb13P + 468
CGI + 4
GCI + 1623
MTW + 45
TA + 232
TWI + 50
+ 2507
this post was written with Dragon NaturallySpeaking speech to text. Sorry for any errors but my wrists hurt and need to rest
 
Quote from Robert Weinstein:


BIG +82
CCME Feb13P + 468
CGI + 4
GCI + 1623
MTW + 45
TA + 232
TWI + 50
+ 2507
More...

Nice job on the GCI short. I totally screwed that short up. I had a great entry, 2k shares. I missed the long and the short, GCI should've made my day all around today. Woulda, coulda, shoulda. Nice job RW. Curious about how you decide to exit your fades? I look at the MACD 3-min crossover.
 
I had one nice trade today. The rest of the time was spent working on getting putting a team together to research stocks and to book my upcoming trip to NYC for the traders expo. I am still not done with either but made progress.

After big was still trading higher from the run up yesterday I shorted it and was able to make a decent gain from it.
KND was the best trade of the day and that was the bulk of it for the day. I did maintain most of the MTW option short and I entered into a new overnight short with DIS and SFLY.
My penny stock that I only had 400 shares with paid off today.
BIG + 198
DIS + 11
KND +1357
MTW + 38
OOIL + 18
SNCR + 63
+1687
 
Another good day of trading.

NYX was halted twice but when it started back it gave a great William short signal. I was able to make more than target with this one. I thought it would break a key number and I was going to lay some size on it but it didn’t quite get over the hump.
I closed out one of my overnights. BWLD acted very crazy but I was able to buy on dips and sell on moves higher and ended with a half way decent gain with it. DIS was an overnight earnings play that just didn’t pan out. I should have held the short with DIS longer but I had other trades I was working on. MTW a short I have had now for a few days started to show some cracks in the woodwork. I covered some of the options but still remain short the Feb 19 calls which lose time value everyday. MTG closed at the 200MA and I am still short the puts. The price appears to have found its footing and the puts are in the green.
MWW which I called a buy on Seeking alpha still looks like it wants to prove me right. The put options I sold are now about $100 in the green. RL went overbought and while I left a lot on the table it worked out pretty well. I put no size on it and made above target. SFLY was another overnight that worked out ok. I would have liked to see a little more but it was not all bad. I traded the possible take over / buyout news on SRX both long and short and did well with it.
TIVO was more mistake than it was trading or bad luck. I may very well lose on it tomorrow and indeed I started to take some stop losses with it today. I intend to get flat it tomorrow. USG was an error in entry as the signal price moved on me but I ended up breaking about even.
WFMI was an earnings play short. I was up for a while and then added some size to try to make some outsized gains. If it falls tomorrow in premarket or in regular hours I should make out nice. It had good earnings, Crammer pumped it and they say they may have trouble keeping up the growth. It really doesn’t get to be a much better setup than that. Oh wait maybe it does. I went to Yahoo finance and the boards said it could open above 61 and may make it to 70 tomorrow. Hard to find a stronger short signal than that. Holding short looking for a pullback into the 57- 57.25 area.
BKS strong today. About to add to the shorts I am naked. Will probably do so Friday.
BWLD + 261
DIS + 5
MTW Feb 19C + 39 and still short the calls
NYX + 777
RL + 136
SFLY + 166
SRX + 136
TIVO – 36
USG + 3
WFMI + 80
+1748
 
Wow, what a tough day. If it could go wrong it sure did today.

First my wife tells me that it is -15 outside. My boys have to wait for the bus at the end of the street. When it gets this cold I just drive there and let them sit in my truck. Not a big deal but I am short WFMI and rather not be away during pre-market trading. So I pull some bids and went to wait for the bus with my boys. I also have an article on SeekingAlpha that was published that includes my short bias about WFMI. The article would not appear to be well timed for a day trader that is for sure. Those with a longer time horizon may find it useful. At least I can say that I eat what I kill unlike so many talking heads that have no skin in the game or what they talk about.
About 10 or so minutes I come back and BOOM I am doing sweet with WFMI as it fell into the zone for me. I move to cover (not all but a lot) and my orders will not go through due to interactive brokers software issues. IB is saying that the stock is halted. At the same time I am watching it trade. Pretty frustrating and I call them up. After being on hold for a long time but not long by IB standards I get told that they are working on it and do not have an ETA. I did have some bids standing and the highest one appears to have missed by about two or three cents. I don’t know if it was a live order or not considering the issues IB was having.
IB finally comes alive and I started to cover but very few shares as WFMI has moved higher by this time. Thinking that perhaps it will make another leg down I then started shorting into the further rise after. This was not the case and it continued up until it moved close to $61. I had to take stop losses and not allow this trade to take away more than a week of trading. I started to scale out and sure enough it started moving back down. I continued to lower my size through the day while at times selling into moves higher with tight bids to cover. Interestingly enough I did get a Laurel short signal and instead of making money with WFMI it turned into a loser. I believe it will retrace back but being correct is not enough. You have to time it out correctly too.
I closed out some trades and had one really nice one today. So all in all it was not my favorite day but considering the run I have been having and how my month overall is going I can still smile.
JDSU gave a great William signal that I put some size on. As a result I made a very nice gain and that helped out on an otherwise cold day in Wisconsin.
I closed out some overnight/swing options trades today. I am especially happy with MTW as it finally gave me that open drop I been waiting for. I was busy with WFMI during the close so I was not looking for new overnight trades to add. I will be again tomorrow though. With it being Friday it will be good to capture some time premium over the weekend. I started to close a small amount of TIVO at the open and when it started to move against me I just lifted offers to cover. It looks like moving quick was the right thing to do and it kept my loss from getting large. It was a mistake to be in TIVO to begin with and I was not going to let it get away from me.
EXPE + 41 AH trading on earnings
GSIC + 48 William signal
JDSU + 884
MTG Feb 9P + 19
MTW Feb19C + 184
MWW Mar 15P + 89
TIVO – 333
WFMI – 4662 (still short)
-3726
 
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