Weinstein Trading and Fading

Without talking about the stock that started this and I will ask everyone to not use the name as it violates the penny stock rule which I agree is a good rule to have as we dont want to turn this into that kind of crap.

I short stocks making new 52 week highs probably once or more a week. I am also very good at it. On Feb 22 I made a choice to stick with my plan of trading again and I think the results show as I am again consistently making gains. It is also something I spent a lot of time learning and like anything that is not easy or risky it must be done with care.

Putting an F18 on a carrier deck is not an easy or a task without risk and some die from trying. Even so that does not mean that others can not make a successful career out of it.


I will be the first to admit that I don't spend my days in the world of Tim Sykes but when I can figure it out within an hour of the news it is pretty obvious what is going on. If anyone wants to know the details they can look on my blog or PM and I will provide the details but out of respect to ET I am not going to go any deeper here.

Moving back to stocks in general the fundamentals do not determine a stock price IMHO but emotion does within the next day or two but over time fundamentals become more important and emotion less. Knowing the areas that emotion is likely to run its course when they become extreme is a skill in trading just like knowing when to grab on to any other trend. we are all trend followers, it is only what we define as the correct place to enter what we believe will be a trend in our direction that makes the difference between any two traders.


Quote from GG1972:

I am just boggled why you'd be interested in shorting something that just broke out to almost 2 year highs-reversion to mean is one of the best widow maker strategies.

Trading is about single and two and occasional homerun -not about a gun slinger home run hitter. Compounding and confidence are amazing tools.
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Moving back to stocks in general the fundamentals do not determine a stock price IMHO but emotion does within the next day or two but over time fundamentals become more important and emotion less. Knowing the areas that emotion is likely to run its course when they become extreme is a skill in trading just like knowing when to grab on to any other trend.
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Very true... judging emotional extremes of the investing masses is probably one of the most important skills any trader can have.

g
 
I totally disagree with this statement. I think judging the mass psychology is easier than judging mines' since I can not view myself from different angle or different distance.

when you lose, do not blame the mass pschylogy, blame yourself since you have the same mass
psychology. you think you are logic, but you are not. you think you are smart, but you are just ordinary.



Quote from gambler2075:

Very true... judging emotional extremes of the investing masses is probably one of the most important skills any trader can have.

g
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Quote from trader198:

I totally disagree with this statement. I think judging the mass psychology is easier than judging mines' since I can not view myself from different angle or different distance.

when you lose, do not blame the mass pschylogy, blame yourself since you have the same mass
psychology. you think you are logic, but you are not. you think you are smart, but you are just ordinary.
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What are you saying? that you don't know yourself?

Um, ok...

If it was easy to judge others, then it would be easy to predict what they are going to do, and you could make money off of that.

Being able to judge what others are going to do, before they do it, is what worked for me, and is why I am up over 400,000$ this year...

g
 
what I am saying is most people (I just used it as an illustration), they do not know themselves, they do not know what they are doing, what their emotions are. tell them not to lose 1k, they lose 3k even 5k. tell them to focus, they do multi-task. since they can not see themselves, how do they know themselves?

of course, you did great job.


Quote from gambler2075:

What are you saying? that you don't know yourself?

Um, ok...

If it was easy to judge others, then it would be easy to predict what they are going to do, and you could make money off of that.

Being able to judge what others are going to do, before they do it, is what worked for me, and is why I am up over 400,000$ this year...

g
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Was able to get most of what I wanted today

TIVO bounced back giving me a refund of the trading from Friday after it lost 40%. I traded it with options to cover as it moved towards and into 11 so that I would have some downside protection if it failed at 11. That turned into a good move. After falling back I received a cover signal and worked my way out. No big surprises with no name POS penny stock except maybe it didn’t fall as fast as it could have. I traded it again in premarket and thought I was really going to have a great day with it until once again IB ran out of shares and I just walked. Not wanting to go through another Friday where I lost money only because of IB’s lack of shares. BP is still on the headlines and until that changes or the headline reads that the leak is stopped I would expect this one to be under a constant weight. I did increase my risk with BP today again though. Premium is pretty high and absent another oil rig blowing up or another big black eye I feel we are getting near the bottom based on this one problem. I am going out a ways though and selling into the July options. I did manage to hit the bottom of the move today with some shorting of the Jul 40 puts so they are ok and overall my BP position is not that bad in light of the adverse moves. Time decay is being a great help.
Traded GS a couple of times via options and looking to add to my position with GS after some of the BP options expire of Friday. Early next week if not by the end of this week. Nothing else important today.
GLG + 2
GS M125P + 36
GS M 135P + 38
no name POS penny stock + 264
IFLG + 46
TIVO +639
TIVO M 10C + 62
TIVO M 11C +108

+ 1199
 
Hi Robert,

I just want to say ever since I got back into the corporate world, I miss going to your chatroom. I miss all the guys in there too!

Hopefully I'll get some time to drop by and catch up on things!

Keep up with the good trading! :)


PA
 
Quote from Free Thinker:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/205667-bp-what-options-does-an-investor-have?source=feed
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One would think that the price should have doubled after that release : o )

I don't really think its a level playing field (well even less with equity options than other markets) but at some point I think the leak will get fixed and price should see a nice bounce. That is why I like the idea of getting in with options.

The October40 puts last traded at about 2.50. It is something I will be looking at tomorrow if we have another down day. I would like to be able to get over 3 for them which if exercised would give me a cost of 37 a share which puts us very near the bottom in early 09 when the world was falling apart. Surely not risk free and if it was BP price would not be doing what it is. Although the bounce today off of 45 was interesting and I wonder if that price will hold or not.
 
Quote from Pension_Admin:

Hi Robert,

I just want to say ever since I got back into the corporate world, I miss going to your chatroom. I miss all the guys in there too!

Hopefully I'll get some time to drop by and catch up on things!

Keep up with the good trading! :)


PA
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Good time to get fired. Collect that 99 weeks of sit on your ass pay from the government and hang out with us and trade for some cash.

Better take it while you can because the debt load is going up so fast. I guess we just had another record deficit so you know this panzi scheme will not last forever.

Of wait......your Canadian. Never mind, hope to see you soon though.

Robert
 
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