Weinstein Trading and Fading

Quote from Robert Weinstein:

.........automated. As I write this I have in the back of my mind my three school exams this week that I have yet to do(I took one last night)

- 13086
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Just think...had you listened to my advice a few days ago you'd be thirteen thousand smackaroos richer.

Dude, wise up and hang up trading because you're in full blowup mode.

Here's a little secret...which has not dawned on you yet.....is that all of your system tinkering and countless hours you're spending away from the family to "improve the system" is only CURVE-FITTING. You see there is no such thing as "improving the system". That's the paradox of the market.

Dude, quit now while you at least have your sanity. I guarantee you that it will be the best decision you ever made in your life to date.
 
This is somewhat true in that once you have an edge, don't fix what is not broken. However, what then can be worked on is psychology and money management which is at least 50% of any system.

Quote from Billybob543:

Just think...had you listened to my advice a few days ago you'd be thirteen thousand smackaroos richer.

Dude, wise up and hang up trading because you're in full blowup mode.

Here's a little secret...which has not dawned on you yet.....is that all of your system tinkering and countless hours you're spending away from the family to "improve the system" is only CURVE-FITTING. You see there is no such thing as "improving the system". That's the paradox of the market.

Dude, quit now while you at least have your sanity. I guarantee you that it will be the best decision you ever made in your life to date.
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Tough day Robert but again and again its same problem decent $500-$1000 days and then Bamm!! Unless you fix that there is no point in trading. Someone here pointed out that on a day once you hit max loss if you stop trading you might miss other opportunities, but you can see when you trade bad you trade bad. Its psychology. Hardwired into us.
 
Sorry to hear you took another big hit. There's no question you have the guts to be a great trader, but you sure do try to do things the hard way.

There is some simple but sound advice that has been given that would have kept you out of the trade and your system has been crying out for these filters.

However IMHO, if you applied your efforts to trend trading instead of fading you'd make a killing. It's the soft belly of the market, running with the crowd. When you are really good at it you can try to get cute and fade the market but that needs a higher level of skill as the risk is much higher.

I don't think your skill set is as refined as you think it is, and perhaps it's over confidence in your method that has prevented you adding the suggested filters. I don't think it is discipline either. I think there's a way to go in seeing the trade better.

However I think what you have is well above average for trend trading and would be more lucrative than fading and it is safer and shouldn't be hard to adapt to.

Anyways, here's to you Bob. It's a pity to lose a great journal and I sincerely hope to read a new improved one in the future. All the best for your exams and your career.
 
Quote from GG1972:

Someone here pointed out that on a day once you hit max loss if you stop trading you might miss other opportunities, but you can see when you trade bad you trade bad. Its psychology. Hardwired into us.
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I think that was me. My point is that, when it's an EPE (elephant poop event), it is usually one stock/opportunity. I think a max loss per signal is a good idea, and a max loss per day isn't necessarily a bad idea.
 
Robert,

I've enjoyed your journals over the last year, so I thought I'd offer my perspective.

Over the 10 years where I've traded aggressively, I've had two "black swan" events. Both were much bigger losses than my models "predicted", and came over a very short time frame. The worst was in 2005, where I lost a significant portion of my account over a two-three day period swing trading EUR and JPY as futures.

After both events I recovered by continuing the next day, but at smaller size, and to tried to learn from what went wrong. I used the pain as inspiration to test and re-test numerous variants of my systems to try and get a better grip on things, especially the down side risk.

I suggest you do the same. Review all your trades, code your strategies up, and try to figure out if the strategy can be improved or if it simply has these nasty days from time to time.

While I wish never to have big nasty days, I have never found a way to avoid them. For me, they are part of trading, and I simply try not to get too upset when it gets nasty.
 
Mike you could not trade your way out of a paper bag, you are a retarded little man, who enjoys bothering Robert. I think you have the small dick disease, people with it claim to be big when in real life they are trying to make up for their small dick. I guess that is why you are a failed trader. Too bad, maybe someone could have shown you how to trade, but your attitude sucks and everyone knows you are an asshole who can't even spell the word "and" correctly.

Quote from limitupmike2:

oraclewhizz!!!!!
you trade through a brokerage that supports ninja.... lmao.. that really narrows it down.. there are numerous futures brokes who trade ninja.. i used patsystems at Mf Global to trade futures at ninja.. and I had the same NO MARGIN as Dooley who blew out 140 million on a 21,000 lot in wheat futures.. the next day I had margin!!!!!! however, the no margin was not thru pats systems it was thru Mf globals old refco platform..xpress.

I have traded more in the last ten years than you will ever trade in your life.. i guarantee it.

Robert, not sure why everyone says i do not support you.. i have never not supported you. If i am playing golf and my swing sucks.. i would hope a golf coach would tell me what I am doing wrogn or warn me about the bunker behind a tree that is not visible unless you know the course.. anyway.. i was only trying to warn you to be careful..

I am done on your post.. good luck Mr. W.
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Quote from caementarius:

I think that was me. My point is that, when it's an EPE (elephant poop event), it is usually one stock/opportunity. I think a max loss per signal is a good idea, and a max loss per day isn't necessarily a bad idea.
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madbadger first introduced me to the concept of a max loss per day last spring. I implemented a $500 max loss per day rule back then and my biggest daily loss since that time was $505.

It wasn't easy to quit trading when that level was hit, because all you can think about is that perfect setup that will get it back, but after my April 2008 losses, certain rules had to be set in stone.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

madbadger first introduced me to the concept of a max loss per day last spring. I implemented a $500 max loss per day rule back then and my biggest daily loss since that time was $505.
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Just how large is that in terms of your account size? Personally, I'm willing to lose up to 3% of my entire trading account on any given day. Usually I would set the loss threshold at 2%. I would then use the additional 1% to get back what I've lost. But should that not pan out as planned, the whole damn thing is scrapped at 3%. But I can tell you from experience that it's better to close shop at 2% loss because by then you're feeling pretty disgusted to keep your head straight.
 
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