Hello Everyone, hope everyone is enjoying the weekend, here are weekly commentary, thoughts and strategy for coming days.
Holding the short from Sep.24: eurgbp @6930 with stop at entry level and tp @0.6770.
EURUSD: Very quiet market we got last week compared to recent aggressive weeks, but its not surprising - market need to rest as well. Little confusing situation on single currency. Trend is defiantly upside, but all upside moves towards 1.1520/40 area were taken by market participants as good sell opportunities. Main question is: what's next? Will we continue the upside rally, will we be stuck in same tight range, or is it reversal? Well, last week mentioned the "shooting star" candle on daily chart (Tuesday), and that it could bring at least consolidation if not correction, and maybe eventually reversal. But it didn't happen. Next candle was not even close to being bearish, but still it was in range of previous day. On Thursday we got another bearish candle - same "shooting star" (read about Shooting Star ). In my opinion, this combined with market overbought situation should bring at least correction. I still prefer standing aside and waiting for at least another day-two to see where is it going to. If market will ignore second shooting star, and break through 1.1520/40 area with day closing above, I think we are defiantly going at least to retest recent 1.19 area. So, to sum up on this pair, I suggest waiting for at least another day-two and see where market is willing to move. If we are going down, its all the way to 1.1220/50, and if its upside - its 1.19.
GBPUSD: Cable is showing much more confidence for upside move than single currency. That's what we got recently and this tendency is likely to continue. Cable certainly is to be bought, and long positions on the pair is considered to be taken in the beginning of the week. The Head and Shoulders formation is still threatening for possible forming of strongest reversal pattern on weekly charts, but the trend seems to be very strong and the market so definite about the upside move that no one is giving this pattern any significance. At least till now there was no cautions behavior on side of market at left shoulder area (1.6480 - 1.6550). We got 3 days in raw day closings above those levels. Therefore at the moment I am confident market to ignore this possible h&s formation on weekly charts and we are most probably going to retest 1.68 area again. But still because of this h&s formation, once I get to take a long position I will be moving stop to entry level on little (20-30pips) move in my favor.
Rest pairs will come later today and tomorrow before market will open.
Holding the short from Sep.24: eurgbp @6930 with stop at entry level and tp @0.6770.
EURUSD: Very quiet market we got last week compared to recent aggressive weeks, but its not surprising - market need to rest as well. Little confusing situation on single currency. Trend is defiantly upside, but all upside moves towards 1.1520/40 area were taken by market participants as good sell opportunities. Main question is: what's next? Will we continue the upside rally, will we be stuck in same tight range, or is it reversal? Well, last week mentioned the "shooting star" candle on daily chart (Tuesday), and that it could bring at least consolidation if not correction, and maybe eventually reversal. But it didn't happen. Next candle was not even close to being bearish, but still it was in range of previous day. On Thursday we got another bearish candle - same "shooting star" (read about Shooting Star ). In my opinion, this combined with market overbought situation should bring at least correction. I still prefer standing aside and waiting for at least another day-two to see where is it going to. If market will ignore second shooting star, and break through 1.1520/40 area with day closing above, I think we are defiantly going at least to retest recent 1.19 area. So, to sum up on this pair, I suggest waiting for at least another day-two and see where market is willing to move. If we are going down, its all the way to 1.1220/50, and if its upside - its 1.19.
GBPUSD: Cable is showing much more confidence for upside move than single currency. That's what we got recently and this tendency is likely to continue. Cable certainly is to be bought, and long positions on the pair is considered to be taken in the beginning of the week. The Head and Shoulders formation is still threatening for possible forming of strongest reversal pattern on weekly charts, but the trend seems to be very strong and the market so definite about the upside move that no one is giving this pattern any significance. At least till now there was no cautions behavior on side of market at left shoulder area (1.6480 - 1.6550). We got 3 days in raw day closings above those levels. Therefore at the moment I am confident market to ignore this possible h&s formation on weekly charts and we are most probably going to retest 1.68 area again. But still because of this h&s formation, once I get to take a long position I will be moving stop to entry level on little (20-30pips) move in my favor.
Rest pairs will come later today and tomorrow before market will open.