Weekly Thread: Sep. 21 - 26

R

rezo_s

EURUSD:
We got a weekly close above 1.1350, which is a 50% fibo for 1.19 high to 1.07s low. I don't say its a big of a deal, but its something. It happened on Friday, and we may still keep little skepticism. But in general, euro bullish sentiment was proven, and for now any move downside as deep as 1.1150 seems to be corrective. However, I don't like talking about market future, as it no use, therefore I will say for now its bullish, tomorrow - will see. Should it reverse, I go selling - I don't care.
This close and break upside is also a break of range 1.1150-1.1320 since 09.Sep. For now everything is indicating we are going north, but lets look how it goes Monday-Tuesday, and afterwards think again.
 

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GBPUSD: Very aggressive rally on cable, and I think there is at least some more space for upside move where that came from. Don't know how the main direction and potential for further move will behave in couple days, but at the moment if there will be a good entry signal, I'm still buying. Not that easy to determine exact levels for target, but possibly its somewhere around that right shoulder (look at chart attached - same as I posted in the end of last week), i.e. possibility for 1.6570-1.6620. So lets keep in mind a VERY clear h&s pattern being drawn on weeklies as well - just in case...Cable is known for its temper, and after such a rally, even more aggressive seloff will not be a surprise for me.
 

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USDCHF: Not much to add, same thing here - finally got a break downside of 1.3770 area, which triggered seloff just as expected. For now holding short with initial target of 1.3535, and protective stop @1.3770. In my opinion, this target is very feasible, and no change in target here. Will be looking at developments and act according to situation. For now - no changes in initial target. Like on euro, this break was not only break of recent support/resistance level, but we also got close below fibo 38.2, which is also positive sign for downside move.
 

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USDJPY: Just as I mentioned a week ago, it was market against interventions. The neck line around 115 was broken, and as promised, seloff was triggered. I think we just opened downside gate market was waiting for long time, and this is a beginning of new long time trend towards 109.00
Well, long time or not - it doesnt really matter. What matters is when we buy and when we sell?! For now I am only considering to sell, and will do so in case I get entry. I was trying to short from the middle of last week when it was still above 116, and I posted about it, but the seloff was strong and I didn't get good price for sell. And then, I see enough room downside, and if I get little share of it - enough for me. So, I will be selling, once I see good opportunity.
 
EURGBP : This is the last pair I would like to mention in this weekly commentary. I took long here a while ago when this pair was in very tight range trading and was knocking on upper border of triangle on daily charts (see attachment). That trade was closed at entry point, and now I think we are seeing descending triangle at work, and if we break that last support level keeping price inside the formation, i.e. if we break 0.6850-0.6870, I think there is a way for at least to 0.6730-0.6750. I still need one more confirmation signal to see on Monday-Tuesday, after which I will be looking to sell the pair regardless the break - i.e. I will be trading for downside break. But for now the plan is to wait and see how it goes in the beginning of the week.
 

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Huge gap here on opening, euro opened at 1.1459, but do to "no slippage" and my strictly using orders policy, trade was closed at 1.1405 :D...well, not bad at all even as it is: booking 232 pips of profit (+9.28%).
MTD:+7.14%.

USDCHF trade open.
 
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