Hello!
Here's my view and expected trading strategy for coming day(s)
as for Sunday, before market opening.
EURUSD: Single currency is beginning to show sings of reversal. At the moment its
still early to talk about buying, but its high time to say stop selling (for me, at least). Monday
EOD charts situation will tell me 1 of 2 most possible scenarios (most possible, as there are
more than 2). More likely Monday trading day will give me indication to build long position.
Target is going to be somewhere around that late exit of triangle (1.1220 area - based on
potential indicated last week range trading).
This scenario looks promising, as objective is currently more than 200 pips away and
due to recent little volatility (range of 1.08-1.09) estimated stop is around 50-60 pips (may
increase or decrease after Monday EOD data). I need to see Monday closing in order do decide,
and hopefully there will be chance for nice entry afterwards before projected move will start.
Although this first case of building long position is a good option, it doesn't mean second
scenario has less chance to happen. This would be case in which current upside move is
only a corrective move before further decline of single currency. Once again, Monday will
be a confirmation day for building long position, and a "stand aside" day in case there will be
downside move. Friday could be just a false upside move due to short positions covering, so
lets not jump into conclusions because of what happened on Friday.
I will not be talking about how low are we going to go in case we resume moving down,
but there is a chance to get more momentum once seloff continues - maybe 1.0550...
So the strategy is as follows: waiting for Monday EOD, and make decision either to
go long or to wait for further developments.
GBPUSD: Unlike euro, cable shows enough potential to take a long position
right from the beginning of the week. I will wait for another move towards low 1.57s
to enter long. Ideal stop indicating this perception to be wrong is around 1.5670 area, and
taking in account target for this trade: 1.6040, even if entry will be around last week closing
level, it will still be good risk reward trade.
Strategy: no orders yet - wait for week opening, and go long once entry confirmed (maybe
Europe session). Even though most chanced this trade will take place, I don't suggest putting order yet.
In case everything looks good, I will post if I put order.
USDJPY: very nice downside pressure on usd was seen late week. Objective of 116.80
I was targeting on my short (which I exited earlier to that move) from last week was reached and
we even saw as low as 116.20. Well, now I would say its perfect time to seek reestablishing
that short position, and even though intervention fears are still present, I will use trailing stop
(manually and often moving stop) in order to minimize loss in case of sudden intervention and
to protect profits. Target is 115.35.
Strategy: same as on cable - wait for good entry level, and if correction looks good, going short.
USDCHF: Same strategy as on euro, but instead of up it will move down, and v.versa.
Initial target here in case down move confirmed is 1 3760, but entry doesn't seem to be close
to current levels...Wait for Monday close.
No signals worth attention are provided on Aussie and Canadian at the moment. Same for rest
crosses. Maybe the picture will change during the week. In that case I will post if any trade looks
attractive to me.
That's it for now,
Have a Very Profitable week,
Rezo Shmertz.
Here's my view and expected trading strategy for coming day(s)
as for Sunday, before market opening.
EURUSD: Single currency is beginning to show sings of reversal. At the moment its
still early to talk about buying, but its high time to say stop selling (for me, at least). Monday
EOD charts situation will tell me 1 of 2 most possible scenarios (most possible, as there are
more than 2). More likely Monday trading day will give me indication to build long position.
Target is going to be somewhere around that late exit of triangle (1.1220 area - based on
potential indicated last week range trading).
This scenario looks promising, as objective is currently more than 200 pips away and
due to recent little volatility (range of 1.08-1.09) estimated stop is around 50-60 pips (may
increase or decrease after Monday EOD data). I need to see Monday closing in order do decide,
and hopefully there will be chance for nice entry afterwards before projected move will start.
Although this first case of building long position is a good option, it doesn't mean second
scenario has less chance to happen. This would be case in which current upside move is
only a corrective move before further decline of single currency. Once again, Monday will
be a confirmation day for building long position, and a "stand aside" day in case there will be
downside move. Friday could be just a false upside move due to short positions covering, so
lets not jump into conclusions because of what happened on Friday.
I will not be talking about how low are we going to go in case we resume moving down,
but there is a chance to get more momentum once seloff continues - maybe 1.0550...
So the strategy is as follows: waiting for Monday EOD, and make decision either to
go long or to wait for further developments.
GBPUSD: Unlike euro, cable shows enough potential to take a long position
right from the beginning of the week. I will wait for another move towards low 1.57s
to enter long. Ideal stop indicating this perception to be wrong is around 1.5670 area, and
taking in account target for this trade: 1.6040, even if entry will be around last week closing
level, it will still be good risk reward trade.
Strategy: no orders yet - wait for week opening, and go long once entry confirmed (maybe
Europe session). Even though most chanced this trade will take place, I don't suggest putting order yet.
In case everything looks good, I will post if I put order.
USDJPY: very nice downside pressure on usd was seen late week. Objective of 116.80
I was targeting on my short (which I exited earlier to that move) from last week was reached and
we even saw as low as 116.20. Well, now I would say its perfect time to seek reestablishing
that short position, and even though intervention fears are still present, I will use trailing stop
(manually and often moving stop) in order to minimize loss in case of sudden intervention and
to protect profits. Target is 115.35.
Strategy: same as on cable - wait for good entry level, and if correction looks good, going short.
USDCHF: Same strategy as on euro, but instead of up it will move down, and v.versa.
Initial target here in case down move confirmed is 1 3760, but entry doesn't seem to be close
to current levels...Wait for Monday close.
No signals worth attention are provided on Aussie and Canadian at the moment. Same for rest
crosses. Maybe the picture will change during the week. In that case I will post if any trade looks
attractive to me.
That's it for now,
Have a Very Profitable week,
Rezo Shmertz.