Weekly Thread: Oct. 26 - 31

R

rezo_s

Sunday, October 26, 2003

Hello Everyone, little late this Sunday. Hope you're all doing great. Ok, lets get started.

EURUSD:
We saw the bullish sentiment towards single currency once again to be in place last week. However, we still didn't see new highs (above this year highs of +1.19). On the other hand, we are already on hew highs against US dollar other currencies. Moreover, we couldn't see a break through last month highs of 1.1860. No doubt market showed its bearish sentiment on US dollar repeatedly, and therefore I cannot talk about end of recent upside move on eurusd yet. On the contrary, the coming week may become another week of euro buying. At the moment I would prefer at least for the Monday sessions to stand aside. I will update on my opinion later during the week.
 

Attachments

USDJPY:
Flat for now.

GBPUSD:
Bullish sentiment on cable is unquestionable. Double top around 1.69 area wasnt formed, and now we may look at the forming of up going channel being formed on daily/weekly charts, which suggests this move to be heading towards 1.7150 in coming weeks. This is only a suggestions, but combined with strong bullish sentiment on cable and overall weakness of US dollar, this scenario has vary good chances to become true, and 1.7150 is a good target. I will be looking for chance to enter long position targeting this very level.
 

Attachments

USDCHF:
Looks like we are going to retest 1.28 area. Sentiment remains negative on US dollar, and even if we are going to see improvment in recent sentiment, there is still good chance to see the 1.28 leevels.


EURGBP : Holding short position here @0.6951 with estimated initial target at 0.6760 within coming 1-2 weeks and stop at 0.7005.
6880-6920 is a very strong support area, break of which should trigger the begining of move down. If we do see this break, we may be talking about potentially strong move to follow. At the moment we are in a bounce form that very level, so if we dont break donwside, that would be it for moving down. But I still see it as a temporary bounce from support level, which will be retested and should be broken on the coming test. Will update during the week on this position.


EURJPY:
Very interesting pair at the moment. I see a very strong potential to be accumulating here, and am expecting to see very strong move after we break this flat market on this pair. For 5 weeks in raw, we are in a 127-130 range which should be broken. Which way? Not that easy to say, but there are more indications to break upside in the bigger picture because trend has been up since Oct 2000 (for 3 years now). On the other hand, there is always an end of any move, and who says this one is not over as well...?
The only thing to help us find out is time...But meanwhile we need to decide which way to trade? Maybe in the bigger picture we are going up, but meanwhile there will be good opportunities to profit from the 1-2 week downside moves and vice versa. So, my opinion is to wait and see the beginning of the week. For now it looks like it may break both sides. I will post my opinion later this week. Maybe even today. I think if we break upside, we are going to the 1.32.50 area before retesting the recent +140 for possible break upside. On the other hand, if we ae going down, its 125 area followed by 121 - 122 to be next. Lots of room both sides, so let's not hurry.
 
AUDUSD:
Bullish sentiment is still in place. 7000 area was already broken, and as we see it was not that big of a resistance at all. The fact that week closed below 7000 is a bit of a problem, but I think its only temporary retracement, at least for now I cannot call it otherwise. We saw day close well above 7000 figure, and even if we correct now, it will be nothing more than "healthy" correction for market to "catch its breath" before we resume the rally. I still think 7155 is a good level to target. I will be looking for possible good entries on this pair later this week (to take long position).


USDCAD:
Same here as on Aussie - good chance to move towards new levels. I think 1.28 is the next area which market may target. 1.3080 was my target 2 week ago, and we were there already. I think 1.28 may be seen in November. At least that's how things look at the moment.


I wish you to have a very profitable week,


Kindest Regards,
Rezo Shmertz
 
Good Day everyone.

As we see, yen pairs are most active and causing rest of the market to follow. I mentioned yesterday about the interesting situation on EURJPY, and here we go - I think we are going to break downside on this pair. Not sure yet, but if the tendency doesn't change later this week, I would like to take a short position here.
As for the rest, I prefer standing aside for now. Maybe later this week I will consider other currency pairs, but for now that is it.

Good Trading
 
Well, nothing much interestoing going on today.

Still holding short on EURGBP @6951.
Now sure yet, but may take additional shorts on euro vs other currencies (jpy, usd). Will post tomorrow. For now seems like we are consolidating after failiure to break the Sep. top of 1.1860.

Good Luck all!
 
rezo...

enjoying your posts here....I can't remember but you've been an active poster on another Forex board correct?

rttrader1 -
 
Quote from rttrader1:

rezo...

enjoying your posts here....I can't remember but you've been an active poster on another Forex board correct?

rttrader1 -
More...

Hi rttrader1,

Yes, you are correct. I am posting on other forum which is solely forex forum - its Moneytec.com. Most of my postings are same, of course except for those when I reply and talk to others :)

Regards,

Rezo
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top