Weekly Thread: Oct. 05 - 10

R

rezo_s

Saturday, October 04, 2003


EURUSD:
Weekly opening around 1.1460
Weekly closing around 1.1570

As we see, on the longer term charts we still got euro going up. So for now there are still no serious concerns about the Fridays' sell off. However, we are going up without any more or less serious correction for one month now (since we reversed near 1.08). I am not saying 1 month of move in certain direction is what it takes for market to take corrective move, but on the other hand I cannot say that we are going to resume the move up right away. Friday action sometimes brings in confusion, so for now, in order to say whether I am going long or short for the next week, I will watch the market for the coming 2-3 days. It's still too early to short now (need more confirmation), and not the best time to take longs as well. I think couple days will clear the situation. Unless of course we are going to get into flat market.
Same situation is observed with the rest of the majors. This may be the Friday confusing market, and may be the real thing. In addition there are 2 euro crosses I will be taking closer look at in the beginning of the week - eurgbp and eurjpy, but little later about those two. Meanwhile I will soon post here a table with possible initial targets for the near future (1 week - 1 month) in either direction, i.e. what are the targets if we are going up, and what are the targets if we are going down (once again, I will need 2-3 days at least to take any position on majors and decide which way to trade, so keep yourselves updated).
 
EURGBP : Week close at 0.6969.
This cross pair is still in a descending triangle, and I am expecting for nice move once its out of it. Maybe I will be entering short even inside the triangle. Target for this position is at least 0.6770. This week we saw another failure to break upside, and now its going down. The market is defiantly trying to take maximum about of this pattern, and this week is a proof for that. I had a short position last week for possible downside break, but the trade was closed at entry level. Now I will be taking another position for very same possible break. Indications are for this break to come soon, but we will have to see if this really is the case.
 

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EURJPY: I mentioned last week that short position may be an option, but we got upside move in the beginning of the week, followed by seloff on Friday after bearish candle on Thursday. Now short position on this pair seems to be a good possibility, and I will be looking for sell opportunity if things will not change in the beginning of the week. Of course, possible target area is mid-low 126s, but I am looking for more aggressive move towards 124.50/80 and maybe eventually 121 figure to come. Sell is defiantly considered in the beginning of the week. Keep yourself updated.

That is it for now, not as much as usually, but situation is mixed on most of the majors USD crosses, and taken that Friday is the reason for this picture, I will have to look at the beginning of the week at least to decide what I do next.
I wish to all to have a profitable week to come,

Best Regards,

Rezo Shmertz
 

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Well, here you go - another good example of Friday trap. I stick to my plan of waiting 2-3 days for situation to become clear. Despite what is going today, I prefer waiting. There is enough room for move (see the table). If I get to grab part of it, its good enough...if not - I will wait again. No rush. I thought eurjpy or eurgbp would become a confirmed sell today, but at the moment those are not confirmed also. For now nothing for me - no trades, but I am watching the market.

For all those trading out there - Best Luck and best Trades!

Regards,

Rezo.
 
Ok, Monday closed. here is what I got:
The only possible trade for the coming sessions is long on USDJPY. The trend down is very strong, but technically the picture is looking for some upside move. Estimated target is 112.05 - just around the Sep 22 gap. Stop is appx 50 pips - will determine exactly later (maybe little more, maybe less). Prefered scenario is if the price declined to buy cheaper. Maybe around 110.50s will be a good entry. But taken target is 112.05, stop lets say 60 pips, then 120 target is good enough -> So any price below 110.85 will be good to enter AFTER I finally decide. And no entry will be considered above 110.85...
For now, only initial confirmation for long position is in place. Will be looking for good entry signal now. Lets see how it goes. For now this is it,

Take care,

Rezo.
 
Hi everybody,

Well, usdjpy is around 110 50, and I am considering to buy the pair despite other majors looking bullish against US dollar. I have all the terms for entering the trade, and unless those terms change, I will enter once I have a confirmed entry.
Another pair to watch is the eurgbp - its still in the triangle, and at the moment is trying to break upside. I thought it was going to be a sell, but as it looks at the moment, we may get a break upside with a target of recent highs (7180 - 7220). That is a pretty good target, and I will consider entry for the upside move today-tomorrow. It is knocking on the upper boarder of the triangle once again now, so lets watch what will happen. I will post once I decide.

Good Trading
 

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EURGBP currently @7050, I think we are seeing a break upside, but lets see the day close and then look for good entry. If it fails to close above the triangle border, it will be sign that we may still reverse downside.
Looks like a good trade for 7180 at least if confirmed.
 
Very interesting action on usdyen, but despite the strong selling presure, I still have a buy on this one. For today at least. So once/if I see we are trying to move/reverse upside, I will most probably buy the pair...
 
Great breakthrough on EURGBP (now@7085). As I said, I will wait for day close and then start seeking for long entry. @ the moment, close anywhere above 7025 is a close above triangle, so I think this is not a question anymore. Lets hope I get a good entry before it reaches the expected target of 7180-7220 :)

As for USDJPY - looks like an intervention just started, but I am not looking to buy because of the intervention - lets look for at least another 15- 60 mins...may still be a buy here..although selling pressure is much stronger than I thought it would be...need to be careful
 
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