Weekly Thread : August 17 - 22

R

rezo_s

EURO/USD downside potential: We are still in triangle formation and due to late exit, potential for move after a break is limited, no matter which side. In such cases (late break) there may occure "trap break", meaning that we may get a break, followed by sharp move back. Phsycology behind such move is simple: market was uncertian regarding the way next move will be (triangle), and there was no certian sentiment for so long, that market was tightening the trading ranger untill it got into almost no range/flat (look at friday - 50-60 pip range for euro). After the "break", any opposite move may provoke market to change its opinion. Therefore, in case I trade, my strategy will be as follows:
I still think we are most probably going to get a break downside, therefore I will be trading for break in that direction, but will try to short as high as possible. I will close half position at recent low of 1.1145, and second half will be targeting 1.1065. I expect sell to occur on Monday. Stop is about 30-50 pips, and will be moved to breakeven after 30 pip move in position favor.

Cable is next.
 
GBPUSD retest of 1.5835 : I was targeting that level on my short from 1.6072 which was closed at b/e, but recent activity is indicating its still possible to retest the 1.5835 area. Its not clear at the moment whether potential is strong enough to go below recent lows, and therefore I will be targeting those levels only. Possibility we get bounce from those levels seems to be quiet good, so I think its reasonable to tp there. Based on recent volatility, I estimate 50-70 pips stop, so b/e after about 40 pips is reasonable.
 
USDCHF - already a break? : Take a look at the picture - looks like we already are witnessing a break of triangle upside. But the problem is that we had a descending triangle, suggesting exit will be down side. Except for that, there are same technical indications for weak potential as on pairs I described earlier. Simpliest way to see it is the divergence on MACD daily charts. I am buying this pair as low as possible with 50-70pip stop, targeting 1.3950. Stop to b/e after 40 pips. Most probably I will try to buy before europe session. Nothing certian.
 

Attachments

USDJPY - nothing at the moment : The channel pattern I posted last week is still presant, but technically indications are for possible down move (not strong though). Therefore I prefer waiting for at least action at the begining of the week or wait for upside move confirmation in order to target upper channel border. Another possible scenario is a break of the chanel downside, and in that case...well lets first see and think about it after - now its not that clear and relevant. In brief, we are in between upper border of the chanel from the upside and BoJ from the downside :). Therefore I think staying in the chanel is best choice market is going to make.
 
EURGBP - still waiting for major down move : I made couple attempts to short this pair, but still got nothing. In my opinion, chances are still pretty good to get that move, but not at the moment. At the moment I wait for better signals.
EURJPY - selling: Most signals are this pair will go to at least 132.50 (same tgt as last week). Stop is around 50 pips.

At the moment I see nothing except for these pairs worth mentioning. As you see, I have 4 possible trades: eurusd, eurjpy, usdchf and gbpusd. I need to pick 3, as I cannot allow over-exposing to risk. I prefer taking majors, and therefore will pass on eurjpy.

Have profitable week,
Rezo Shmertz.
 
Hi all.

Well, as we see the sell off began right away at the begining of the trading week, but for now there were not enough sellers to push below 1 1220...
What can I say...? - wait for retracement, and make sell from there. Entering the market may occur bit later than expected. Maybe in US session. At the moment we see there are not enough sellers. If price retraces, next sell off and test may bring a break. I think many big position holders are protecting current level, but this fact is equaly good and bad for down move - due to late exit it may be hard to break it and bulls may hold, and if it goes low enough, stops and liquidations of those big longs will push it even lower. Therefore, waiting for better levels to buy USD as posted yesterday.
In case break occurs without retracement - no trades will be taken at the moment. Maybe leater.
 
Well, all objectives of my trades would be reached:
euro - 1 1065
swissy 1 3960
cable 1 5835

but unfortunatly I didnt get to enter, and jump after the move is not my style, so I was and am out.

Now we need to see how the market handles the 1 1065 - 1 1040
area. Even if we got retracement to above 1.11, I would still
consider selling, as thats the preferred side to trade at the
moment.
Well, lets lee how things go and maybe make any decidion. At the moment, if we are going down, then I think its towards 1.08, so there still is room to trade. Patience...:).
 
Well, here comes retracement, and not a little one - 100 pips.
I'm planing to sell euro, but there is a dilema. Candle on daily chart + late exit + technical indications...
I think its a risky short, and still not confirmed long. My strategy is
as follows:
I will be soon shorting euro in case I see sellers are still there;
Stop @1 1225, and moving to b/e after 30 pip move down form
entry point; Taking profit @ 1 1065 for half position and holding
rest for open target - maybe 1.0980, maybe 1 0840.
Entry may occur in coming hours. Anytime.

rezo.
 
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