Weekly Showdown... VTI vs VEU. Fight!

Chase opportunities outside the U.S.?

  • Total voters
    5
  • Poll closed .
spy said:
MOO Monday morning to MOC Friday
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Correction... MOO Tuesday; Monday's a holiday. Voting will still be closed at the same time though since I have no idea how to change that.
 
easymon1 said:
VEU
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I think I'm with you on this one. All I've been hearing on Bloomberg is that Europe is looking better and better. I'll cast my vote now, there's still time to change my mind if I want.

BTW, you have to vote to be eligible for the prize @easymon1, so... get to it :D
 
I voted for VEU. If inflation persists it will benefit the industrials, materials & energy stocks. US is leveraged for high tech but those won't do well in a 5% world.

In reality I'm betting on EEM (VWO in the Vanguard world) and especially Brazil. EWZ is incredibly volatile so not for the faint hearted.
 
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nitrene said:
I voted for VEU. If inflation persists it will benefit the industrials, materials & energy stocks. US is leveraged for high tech but those won't do well in a 5% world.

In reality I'm betting on EEM (VWO in the Vanguard world) and especially Brazil. EWZ is incredibly volatile so not for the faint hearted.
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Interesting thought process. I agree that the inflation story isn't over and levered companies with a big capex may still have room to fall. EEM and VEU are pretty close:
Code: 
Correlation Matrix
     EEM  VEU
EEM 1.00 0.93
VEU 0.93 1.00

Descriptive Statistics
      sd   min  max skew kurtosis
EEM 0.07 -0.12 0.16 1.05     0.62
VEU 0.06 -0.10 0.13 0.57    -0.62

But certainly not the same as you point out, lol:
Code: 
Correlation Matrix
    EEM VWO
EEM   1   1
VWO   1   1

Descriptive Statistics
      sd   min  max skew kurtosis
EEM 0.07 -0.12 0.16 1.05     0.62
VWO 0.06 -0.10 0.14 1.10     0.71

I think I'm sticking with VEU too but I'm just flat out guessing. We'll see what happens at the end of the week ;) Good luck!

P.S.
What I think makes this weeks challenge difficult is that I expect the difference to be subtle and very small. Not like comparing something volatile with something placid. EEM (or EWZ) vs either VTI or VEU would have a big gap by Friday (in one direction or the other).

VEU v. VTI will most likely be down to the wire.
 
Last edited:
I think EEM & VWO use different indexes as a basis for the portfolio (MSCI vs. FTSE) so they aren't exactly the same. In my mind the only reason to buy non-US ETFs is when the dollar is falling which it is. It peaked around mid October so yeah VEU has done better than VTI or even VWO. In the last 2 weeks, however VWO has outperformed (slightly) both the VEU & VTI.

I've been long EEM, FEZ, EFA & EWZ options since late November. They've all done pretty well. I am also long INDA which hasn't done much. Last week I started buying Taiwan (EWT) & South Korea (EWY). They've done okay so far.

VWOvsVEUvsVTI_3month.JPG VWOvsVEUvsVTI_10day.JPG VEUvsVTIvsEWTvsEWY_10day.JPG
 
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As a follow up, November 10 was the day I would say US dollar (UUP is what I use) was a sell. Since then it is really Europe itself that has outperformed over the EAFE, S&P 500 or even Emerging markets. Italy & Germany (+15%) seem to have fared better than laggards like the UK (+10%).
 
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