Weekly Poll: When Does Xmas Rally Start?

[tradingjournals]

Quote from shortie:

i hope we will manage to crash some more!

Do you remember what I wrote about spy 125? and QQQQ 56?
I believe a possible rise in EUR/USD, and with it a possible rise-to-stabilization in stocks.

What do you think of selling straddles?

My views were:

1. The retreat from 122.50 area to 117 area (took place).

2. A rise (took place).


3. On day twelve after the top of 1, a retreat ( too place).

4. Then a rise to eventually kiss 125. (took place).

5. Retreat from 125 (just took place), BUT the market is not set for a hard fall if it first needs to set itself. There is the possibility of a surprise down move, but I do not see the catalyst. To set itself, makets have multiple ways to do it, one of which a little-rise-to-horizontal move.

When do earnings start? My guess is that if earnings would be bad, the market will hold until they come to sell off. If earnings would be good, then market might have to retreat to rise "due to earnings".

 

[shortie]

Quote from tradingjournals:

.....5. Retreat from 125 (just took place), BUT the market is not set for a hard fall if it first needs to set itself. There is the possibility of a surprise down move, but I do not see the catalyst. To set itself, makets have multiple ways to do it, one of which a little-rise-to-horizontal move....

125 to 124 is a small retreat. i am hoping for some more. many bulls are around.

maybe you are right that we won't crash until we rise some more on vapors.

earnings are in a month.

 

[S2007S]

Yesterday was the buying opportunity of the rest of december, the markets so far have yet to have any meaningful pullback. Today the nasdaq will be up 10 out of 12 trading days in december, more than 80% of the time. There is no risk in this market.

 

[tradingjournals]

Quote from tradingjournals:

eurusd at 1.3211. I want to flip a burger from short to long side. I prefer to flip at 1.3202, but the market is not even touching 1.3208, and has been near it for more than an hour now.

What do you think I should do?

EUR/USD has risen and is now at 1.3327. Difference: +115pips, or $1150 on one lot. Is it now time that they would take the profits, and wait for a retreat to consider a possible re-entry on long side at a retreat?

 

[tradingjournals]

Quote from tradingjournals:

EUR/USD has risen and is now at 1.3327. Difference: +115pips, or $1150 on one lot. Is it now time that they would take the profits, and wait for a retreat to consider a possible re-entry on long side at a retreat?

Waw.. Quick fall to 1.3285, or 42 pips. Would buyers appear at this level and below?

 

[S2007S]

Nasdaq having another great week, and for the month its up 11 out of 13 (84% of the time) days!!!!! Imagine if it was down 84% of the time in the last 13 days, whewww, they would be on QE4 by now!!!!!

Risk free money as they say!!

 

[tradingjournals]

Quote from shortie:

125 to 124 is a small retreat. i am hoping for some more. many bulls are around.

maybe you are right that we won't crash until we rise some more on vapors.

earnings are in a month.

I am wondering what your thoughts have become based on the hindsight and the views you seem to have had before Thursday?

 

[tradingjournals]

Quote from S2007S:

Nasdaq having another great week, and for the month its up 11 out of 13 (84% of the time) days!!!!! Imagine if it was down 84% of the time in the last 13 days, whewww, they would be on QE4 by now!!!!!

Risk free money as they say!!

I am surprised you viewed things as rise, I would say it is rather flat.