Weekly Poll: This Rally Is Officially Stronger Than Feb-Apr 2010 One. Where To Now?
- Thread starter shortie
- Start date
...and besides the usual "Repent! The End is Near!" steaming piles of crapola that get deposited on a regular basis in the Economics forum, among other places, there are now three threads that I can see on the front page, anyway, devoted to Cisco's thrashing tonight.
Looks like a bunch of starved bears to me. Salmon must be scarce in the river.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/co...l-market-high-2010-11-05?reflink=MW_news_stmp
Hulbert says there is no irrational exuberance yet.
"...Furthermore, even after Thursdayâs big jump, the HSNSI remains quite low â considering that the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed (DJIA 11,357, +10.29, +0.09%) is at new bull-market highs. The HSNSI now stands at 45.7%, for example, which means that the average short-term stock market timer is still recommending that his or her clients allocate more than half of their equity portfolios to cash.
To put this 45.7% into historical context, consider that the HSNSI today is still lower than it was two months ago, when the Dow was trading as much as a thousand points lower. The HSNSI then got as high as 47.5%. Contrarians see evidence of a strong wall of worry that the market timers are more bearish today than then, despite the stock market today being so much higher. ...."
Hulbert says there is no irrational exuberance yet.
"...Furthermore, even after Thursdayâs big jump, the HSNSI remains quite low â considering that the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed (DJIA 11,357, +10.29, +0.09%) is at new bull-market highs. The HSNSI now stands at 45.7%, for example, which means that the average short-term stock market timer is still recommending that his or her clients allocate more than half of their equity portfolios to cash.
To put this 45.7% into historical context, consider that the HSNSI today is still lower than it was two months ago, when the Dow was trading as much as a thousand points lower. The HSNSI then got as high as 47.5%. Contrarians see evidence of a strong wall of worry that the market timers are more bearish today than then, despite the stock market today being so much higher. ...."
That is good news for a bear move, but it can take time for the top to round. SPY between 122.5 and 125 would be the zone where they would hire bag holders (if it gets there). QQQQ area is 54 to 55, but they could not hire people so far as the buyers seemed well aware of the bait.
Shortie: what do think about the dollar? I shorted it at 1.3690, but took only 20 pips profit. The sucker went up to 1.38 pretty fast and the stock market followed it. We seem to be back to dollar and market playing the same song at the same time. If 1.37 are becomes a ceiling, then the stock market might follow without getting to 125 and 55.
The US market would be the best market forward. It would outperform the BRICs/etc. Money seems to be flowing to the US.
I have a feeling that Brazil would be one of the markets that would tank. Their leadership seems not to be understanding what is going on. What they think is now a problem would in fact the solution they will look for in the future. Capital might desert them.
Shortie: If Brazil is of interest to you, could you do one of your fine work on EWZ vs SPY or QQQQ vs. EWZ? EWZ is Brazil.
Also does anyone know if there is a bond ETF for Russia, India and Turkey? Could these three experience a bull market in bonds.
Thanks shortie. You are so fast. What do you think?