Weekly Poll: The Three Month Anniversary Of Cramer's "6 months to Prosperity Call"

SPY Next Week?

  • Bullish

    Votes: 9 33.3%

  • Flat

    Votes: 6 22.2%

  • Bearish

    Votes: 7 25.9%

  • I prefer to keep my opinion to myself

    Votes: 5 18.5%
  • Total voters
    27
Quote from shortie:

yeah, i kept loading up AH on short QLD. as the AH session was getting to a close I realized that in addition to ~$20M short QLD position I had ~$13M Short in various stocks. so I stopped adding QLD and went to sleep soundly knowing that my position is safe because the market is ripe for a correction. but i also knew that if worse came to worst and the market moved 2-3% against me I would be ready to add ~$100M short positions to really nail the sucker.
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LOL!


"yeah, i kept loading up AH on short QLD. as the AH session was getting to a close I realized, that TradingJournals did not short yet, and that..." :)

BTW: great call you made on FOMC!
 
we keep pushing SPY 110 and we did not make any progress closing 108 gap. looking at some ugly scenarios i have come up with July 2009 and March 2010 when the market kept stubbornly climbing higher. both times i got burnt really bad shorting the sucker (and becoming a sucker myself in the process:) ). so i want to be more careful this time around.

i am not saying that we must repeat those crazy times, but it is good to know what happened before.

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Sometimes questions can help friends. The market may be asking this question with SPY at 110: which will come first (if any): SPY at 117.5 or SPY at 102.5?

A short article pushed me to ask that question on the eve of yesterday session when the SPY was expected to touch the 110 area (which it did), and I was puzzled by whether the market wants to be shorted?

Shortie: what do you think is the likelihood of a gap down tomorrow to close the 108 gap?
 
Quote from tradingjournals:

Sometimes questions can help friends. The market may be asking this question with SPY at 110: which will come first (if any): SPY at 117.5 or SPY at 102.5?

A short article pushed me to ask that question on the eve of yesterday session when the SPY was expected to touch the 110 area (which it did), and I was puzzled by whether the market wants to be shorted?

Shortie: what do you think is the likelihood of a gap down tomorrow to close the 108 gap?
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VIX gives us 32% chance that SPY will move >|2.23%| in 2 days. from that based on my back-of-napkin estimations and some very rough assumptions i project that we have ~60% chance of closing the gap tomorrow.

Shortie Black–Scholes Out :cool:
 
Quote from shortie:

after two failed attempts at SPY 110 Bulls do not surrender.

**edit** actually 3 attempts already including the overnight push
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yet another attempt at SPY 110, ES shoot up 0.5% overnight.

resistance still holds!:)
 
When was the attempt made (I do not have the ES chart)? The reason I am asking is because EUR/USD made a move up, which I shorted at around 10:24PM. It is still the top this evening. I am self debating what I should do. A part in me is saying that EUR/USD might fall, and I do not want to miss. The other part is saying to take the little profits and wait until move is clearly taking place. What I find strange is that everything in traditional indicators/etc is pointi up, BUT my models are telling me to short it. Any one with advice on how to deal with this, particularly emotions?
 
Thanks. Do you mean AM or PM? If AM then it makes sense as 3:30AM would be 10:30PM (ET)--- It would be a timed move with EUR/USD if ES top is at the same time. (Char is missing some data when plotted on 5 days).
 
the chart is indeed screwed up now. the jump was around 10:30pm eastern time. ES went to 1095 i think, can't be be precise about the size of the jump.
 
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