Weekly Poll: The Three Month Anniversary Of Cramer's "6 months to Prosperity Call"

SPY Next Week?

  • Bullish

    Votes: 9 33.3%

  • Flat

    Votes: 6 22.2%

  • Bearish

    Votes: 7 25.9%

  • I prefer to keep my opinion to myself

    Votes: 5 18.5%
  • Total voters
    27
I hardly ever watch Cramer, but this is one time when the probability is with him. Expect a rising market from August-Early September to the first week in November. All Bernanke has to do is ensure a weakening dollar. Should be easy enough to pull off.
 
Quote from shortie:

good question, but i am not ready to reveal the big secret :)


individual data points for the polls going back to 2/12/2010 can be found here, but it is not processed in any way. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=190863&perpage=30&pagenumber=1

i stopped updated the journal in may, but i keep track of the poll results since then on my hdd. the plan is to put everything together superimposed on the SPY chart and share it with ET. i am busy with other stuff right now, but will do this eventually. we have ~22 data points right now, so a few more data points won't hurt.
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Now, I too know the secret... But I will keep tight lipped about it... ;)
 
Cramer has so many conflicting calls that he can point to any one of them and say "he nailed it." For example, "take your money out of the market for 5 years!" followed by "buy this market!" a few months later. He should have zero credibility by now, but somehow his TV show survives. His buy the financials call right before the sh*t hit the fan was my favorite, with his $80 stocks go to $120 theory (right before the bear market arrived) was second on my list of all-time idiotic calls. It's amazing how many free passes this moron gets.
 
No, it's the endless supply of "that next trader" that makes his show survive the same way Ameritrade, IB, and other brokers survive. They stay in business by opening that next account. Cramer survives because there is always someone opening that next account.

Quote from tradingjournals:

His show survives because it is on TV-- it is the act of being on TV that makes his show successful.
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Quote from shortie:

good question, but i am not ready to reveal the big secret :)


individual data points for the polls going back to 2/12/2010 can be found here, but it is not processed in any way. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=190863&perpage=30&pagenumber=1

i stopped updated the journal in may, but i keep track of the poll results since then on my hdd. the plan is to put everything together superimposed on the SPY chart and share it with ET. i am busy with other stuff right now, but will do this eventually. we have ~22 data points right now, so a few more data points won't hurt.
More...

updated poll results in the journal through july 05 if somebody is interested. i will wait until we get ~30 data points to put the data on SPY chart:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2894058#post2894058
 
Shortie: I believe that polls should start on a Wednesday for a number of reasons. People would have formed an opinion based on market action, and also because shifts in Markets typically happen on Wednesdays. Market changes at anytime, but people's opinion do not change as fast during the week. That is I believe the majority lose. It is a hypothesis. You can skip it of course if you judge I am being nuts with this thing --- which is probable.
 
the issue is of a technical nature. i have noticed that not many people vote during the week. it is easier to gets vote over the weekend. even now we have only 11 vote, probably because of the summer.
 
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