Weekly Poll: SPY Is Stuck at 110

[shortie]

i am wondering if it is still a good time to sell SPY Aug calls strikes 112, 113, 114 maybe. the rationale is that we had a breakout yesterday so many are willing to pay extra (=too much) for those calls because they assume that momentum is on their side. but the momentum can change quickly.

yesterday was a much better day for this type of trade but maybe today is still ok. i am a slow thinker, i must admit that.


SPY 112.20

 

[tradingjournals]

Shortie: You know what I thought of this market for the last two days. What did you decide finally? SPY did not move much from your last print (now at 112.24). It has been very dull so far for 13 hours of trading. With less than 20 minutes to the close, is she going to catch people by surprise?

 

[shortie]

don't have an opinion, just watching.

 

[tradingjournals]

LOL! Everyone seems to be doing the same--- just watching (including yours truly). Traders are the only people who can watch a boring game, but when it gets moving they stop watching and start playing.

Premium sellers are collecting. I am betting you have some short covered puts and/or some short calls working while you are doing the watching.

I am also paying attention to the VIX. Notice its behavior.

 

[tradingjournals]

Quote from piezoe:

Good morning. Just a reminder to everyone to not forget to monitor the dollar, or major currency of your choice relative to the dollar. Someone comented on USD/JPY Yen here yesterday, and I note that the USD vs. the Yen is approaching a major swing low of 84.79 made on Nov. 26th of 2009. DX is coming into some major support near 80. (its at 80.67 at this moment) The Euro is about to see overhead resistance at 1.32-1.37. Will support for the dollar hold? That is an important question as it relates to the probability of the market retreating or continuing to advance.

After yesterday I suppose the market will just hang out here or move down a little while it catches its breath, and waits to see if support for the dollar holds. Good trading to everyone.

I am thinking that 1.3232 for EUR/USD could be a nice looking number where distribution/selling of this pair might take price. Someone mentioned that BoJ stated it will defend the 85 level for pair U/J.

 

[shortie]

i have a short bias for the next several days/weeks. i missed good entries for short calls yesterday.

my positions are one giant mess at this point.

 

[tradingjournals]

Best wishes my friend! Payroll this Friday. This market is dull, and therefore can be very dangerous. I would not trust either side. I am watching the currencies. If EUR/USD goes south, then some news might come from Europe. If U/J breaks 85, I would not be surprised if old carry trades words resurface. We shall see.

I just read news on Israel newspapers. Skirmishes on Lebanon border with deaths on both sides. It should either lower the probs of war, or increase them significantly. My guess is no war.

 

[ksmetana]

Technically, I think we are ready to pop above that 113 level, with a possible retreat to 111 first.

We could drift down or be flat for the week, and get our next day on Monday.

 

[KMAX]

Quote from piezoe:

Good morning. Just a reminder to everyone to not forget to monitor the dollar, or major currency of your choice relative to the dollar. Someone comented on USD/JPY Yen here yesterday, and I note that the USD vs. the Yen is approaching a major swing low of 84.79 made on Nov. 26th of 2009. DX is coming into some major support near 80. (its at 80.67 at this moment) The Euro is about to see overhead resistance at 1.32-1.37. Will support for the dollar hold? That is an important question as it relates to the probability of the market retreating or continuing to advance.

After yesterday I suppose the market will just hang out here or move down a little while it catches its breath, and waits to see if support for the dollar holds. Good trading to everyone.

Agree about support for the dollar. Also in case you don't know there is an inverse relationship between the VIX and the SPY?
The VIX is low right now and the SPY is up against it's June highs.

Shortie, I like that pic of Ben so much that I'm using it as wallpaper. Thanks for posting it.

 

[shortie]

Short Quick!!!