Weekly Poll: September 11 - Does It Matter?

[Nine_Ender]

Quote from GuyFawkes:

I'm not having an argument with someone who calls me "buddy".
Sorry, won't do it.

I was looking over some posts from spring/summer 2009 and what I noticed is a group of permabears posting ridiculously pessimistic ideas over and over again no end. I posted a few of them from this S2007S guy last night they are pretty funny. Far too many really to address them scientifically I'm sure we could make a hall of shame thread concerning the bears of 2009. There is even repeated mocking of anyone who dared to predict a bull move in the market ( which everyone knows now occurred ).

The last poster is bang on correct some of you should be ashamed of yourselves and STOP posting this overdone pessimism about markets. Where is the learning curve here people ? Yes, markets go up and down, but there is absolutely nothing that today's market that suggests a market crash is imminent.

At least be realistic about the calls. Something like saying there is a 5-20% chance the Dow goes to 9000 by year end is reasonable. But no less reasonable would be saying a 5-20% chance the Dow goes to 12000. But what do we get instead ?
Market crash is imminent ???? Either some of you are ignorant, extremely inexperienced, or you are continually buying short term Puts hoping to catch a massive home run on your money.

 

[shortie]

Quote from Landis82:

Brokerage analyst "BUY" recommendations reached a level last week not seen since 1997. The amount of Investor's Intelligence newsletter writers who are Bulls fell to 29.x% last Wednesday. The Rydex/SGI Investment Advisor Confidence Index hit a 16-month low in August.

There have been $48 billion in net OUTFLOWS out of equity mutual funds since April 2009. Meanwhile, Bonds have seen net INFLOWS of $450 Billion. Gee, I wonder where all of that "bond" money will flow to once the asset allocators see their quant models turn???

Recently, we had every blogger in the world talking about the "Death Cross" and the "Cardinal Climax" and the "Hindenberg Omen" all within one month's time . . .

And still, the Bears could NOT TAKE THE MARKET BELOW 1040 SPX. But please don't let that get in the way of S2007S telling everyone how much money he's made by watching his inverse ETF's and assorted PUTS expire worthless month after month after month since the Summer of 2009. He and Robert Prechter have blown-out more TD Ameritrade accounts that you can shake a stick at!

excellent analysis! but now that we BOUNCED hugely over the last 3 days, where to next?

 

[Nine_Ender]

Quote from shortie:

excellent analysis! but now that we BOUNCED hugely over the last 3 days, where to next?

Silver and copper prices tommorrow morning could be the catalyst for a market move up or down.

 

[jonp]

nikkei and topix both down. eur/usd down almost a full cent to 1.2797. and the downward momentum going into tomorrow has started. fasten your seatbelts we have a few gaps to close, and a few key levels to retest. i.e spy 107.10 and 104.4. we've been in a bear market the last 5 months, and this failure of a rally will not help add to bullish sentiment.

 

[trefoil]

What defines a bear market to you? We were around 1200 in April, we're around 1100 now. That's not even 5%. A slight downturn is not a bear, regardless of the usual gloom & doom the usual losers keep promoting.
By the way, my screen shows all futures green as of right now, for whatever that's worth, which ain't much.

 

[jonp]

aprils highs down to junes lows was well over 5%, even from 1200 to 1100 is over 5%. regardless, there is no interest in the market, the only types of rallies we've seen lately have been short squeezes. I feel like there is still way too much fear for these levels to be printing. it's like if a few pieces of bad news come out, which will definitely occur, people will be selling at market as fast as they possibly can. we were at 1100 back in decjanfeb, and it seems like things looked rosier back then than how they turned out to be.

basically I just think that there is more room to the downside than to the upside. with all the uncertainty going forward and the memories of 07-08 fresh in peoples minds, they will sooner find a reason to dump their shares rather than going out to buy more. I'll give a 2010 year end estimate of the s&p of about 950-1000 points. there is simply not enough capital pouring in to sustain this market.

Also I don't know how this will play out in the long run but many baby boomers are slowly selling off their portfolios and packages in return for cash. there is tons of capital going out, and not much interest going in, especially with most young people not even able to find jobs, never mind being able to save enough and even willing to invest it.

what makes you think that more money will be invested in american equities before more is taken out?

 

[trefoil]

The fact that bonds have been in a blindingly obvious bubble. This last rally in bonds was a classic blowoff, and it just ended with a huge move to the downside, which was mirrored by classic breakout behavior over in the equity market.
Pretty simple stuff, really.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Quote from jonp:

aprils highs down to junes lows was well over 5%, even from 1200 to 1100 is over 5%. regardless, there is no interest in the market, the only types of rallies we've seen lately have been short squeezes. I feel like there is still way too much fear for these levels to be printing. it's like if a few pieces of bad news come out, which will definitely occur, people will be selling at market as fast as they possibly can. we were at 1100 back in decjanfeb, and it seems like things looked rosier back then than how they turned out to be.

basically I just think that there is more room to the downside than to the upside. with all the uncertainty going forward and the memories of 07-08 fresh in peoples minds, they will sooner find a reason to dump their shares rather than going out to buy more. I'll give a 2010 year end estimate of the s&p of about 950-1000 points. there is simply not enough capital pouring in to sustain this market.

Also I don't know how this will play out in the long run but many baby boomers are slowly selling off their portfolios and packages in return for cash. there is tons of capital going out, and not much interest going in, especially with most young people not even able to find jobs, never mind being able to save enough and even willing to invest it.

what makes you think that more money will be invested in american equities before more is taken out?

S&P 500 is down 1% for the year after a big gain since early 2009. You call that a "bear market" ? Obviously, you haven't been trading very long.

 

[denner]

Quote from Nine_Ender:

S&P 500 is down 1% for the year after a big gain since early 2009. You call that a "bear market" ? Obviously, you haven't been trading very long.

What a complete and total fucking coward you are. You're like that douchebag who talks shit while driving by in a car, but doesn't have the balls to say it to their face.

Everybody is a genius with the benefit of hindsight.

 

[jonp]

my tza and vxx are showing me a profit, i think i'm just gonna hold these for a while though. hope your long 110.95's are working out for you, like you said the canadian banks had strong earnings right? I think citi, bac and lvs all had very strong earnings in the first quarter of 07 too. that was a great time to invest in them.