Weekly Poll: Pullback This Week? PART 2

SPY Next Week?

  • Bullish

    Votes: 16 28.6%

  • Flat

    Votes: 3 5.4%

  • Bearish

    Votes: 33 58.9%

  • I prefer to keep my opinion to myself

    Votes: 4 7.1%
  • Total voters
    56
  • Poll closed .
S

shortie

the expected pull-back got postponed until next week. in the previous week we added an unfilled gap on SPY ~111 as the bears got their already lean arses fried. :(

there is an outside chance that we will embark on Mar-Apr scenario. this is unlikely, but it is an unlikely market. no unreasonable scenario should be excluded outright :)
 
In keeping with the market's very annoying habit of doing what frustrates everyone, it went up, but not by enough to be really strong and confirm my breakout theory, but by enough to frustrate the bears, certainly.
So, IMO, this looks to be a long grind up until the last bear is finally and definitively turned into ground chuck. Accordingly, staying bullish.
 
Quote from trefoil:

In keeping with the market's very annoying habit of doing what frustrates everyone, it went up, but not by enough to be really strong and confirm my breakout theory, but by enough to frustrate the bears, certainly.
So, IMO, this looks to be a long grind up until the last bear is finally and definitively turned into ground chuck. Accordingly, staying bullish.
More...

SPY ~+8% in 3 weeks is extremely strong in my books. :confused:
 
Stocks are now failing to move up decisively on supposedly "good" news. Going into the weekend, 6 banks were closed in 4 states. (Of course, this was announced after the exchanges closed. Shades of 2008.) The Dow is up 11 out of the last 13 days, but the upmoves are getting smaller and smaller. "Overbought" and "exhausted" are the only words that come to mind.

Sell.
 
Carl Swenlin brought this to my attention. We have a golden cross, which is a long term buy signal. That is when the 50 day EMA crosses above the 200 day EMA. (Carl prefers the EMA instead of the SMA.)

ji17b.jpg


Notice that when the death cross was generated early July, the market rallied instead of selling off. (When a death cross occurs, the long-term sell signal is given. So you're suppose to sell off.) When the golden cross occurred almost immediately, the market rallied again. When the death cross occured again, the market this time sold off, which is what is suppose to happen. Maybe, with this current golden cross, we'll sell off. I hope you followed me through that logic.

Monday at 10 am, we get the Housing Market Index. Market expects a number of 14.
Have a nice weekend everyone! Go bears!
whohoosmiley.gif
 
The week after september options friday is supposed to be ugly.
I'm chillin with the Bears.
Current record 3-5
 
Quote from MKTrader:

Stocks are now failing to move up decisively on supposedly "good" news. Going into the weekend, 6 banks were closed in 4 states. (Of course, this was announced after the exchanges closed. Shades of 2008.) The Dow is up 11 out of the last 13 days, but the upmoves are getting smaller and smaller. "Overbought" and "exhausted" are the only words that come to mind.

Sell.
More...

bank closure is not the type of news that affects the market. they have closed banks pretty much every friday for the last 1.5 years. this year total is 124.
 
Quote from shortie:

SPY ~+8% in 3 weeks is extremely strong in my books. :confused:
More...

I was talking about the weekly performance:

Week 1 - .0375
Week 2 - .0046
Week 3 - .0145

So this week was strong, and it was stronger than last week, but not in relation to week 1 of this breakout. This was what happened in March 2009:

Week 1 - .1071
Week 2 - .0158
Week 3 - .0617

So week 3 wasn't as strong as week 1, but it was still a nice up week. This past week, OTOH, was just a typical up week.
Which means more grinding higher, IMO. The bears aren't off balance enough yet.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top