Weekly Poll: No Bias For Next Week, But Mother-in-law Tells Me To Sell
- Thread starter shortie
- Start date
Personally I would be cautious here. The market is still showing us weakness. It seems highly likely we have a little further to go to the downside. At least 1015, I would think, but most likely we will eventually dip below 1000. Consider all the negative factors weighing on the market right now, including uncertainty, which is something the market doesn't like. . The negatives eclipse the positive. And too, in the US we are going into the Memorial day weekend. That usually brings a little sell off. So personally i would not be too anxious to jump in here on the long side. My thinking is there is plenty of time to get long going into the Fall elections. But if you see something that is ridiculously cheap, it is probably not wrong to buy it, even though there is a good chance it will go still lower. We are not even through May, and there should be lots of market doldrums ahead, so why rush in? Do you really think we are going to have a wild bull market in June and July with everyone at the beach (at least the non-oil-lubricated ones)?
If I am wrong, so what. I miss an opportunity. There is always another train leaving the station. I'll grab that one. In the meantime i'm going with what I believe are the probabilities. I'll just keep a little powder dry here in reserve.
If I am wrong, so what. I miss an opportunity. There is always another train leaving the station. I'll grab that one. In the meantime i'm going with what I believe are the probabilities. I'll just keep a little powder dry here in reserve.
If I HAD to call it, I'd say we'll stay where we are, with perhaps a moderate retrace back. But I wouldn't think there would be an EOD dump to any massive extent. Not today.
But this reminds me a great deal of summer 2008 where we would have a giant up day, a giant down day, back and forth for a little. the volatility was unreal. And then, the collapse.
What a boring day, market gaps up and stays there the entire day, least on Tuesday after the huge drop in the morning it nearly closed higher by the close. I think the final move in this market comes 30 minutes before the close and today they will not be selling it off, SPX has a good chance of closing above 1100 today.
It would seem that that may be a main contributor to the buying. That kind of buying is done without much enthusiasm. The enthusiastic ones were few in number as the ES volume today on this big up day was below average, and for the week just average. On the weekly we are still in a downtrend, though barely as today came quite close to the weekly trendline, but if you look at the daily chart you will get a different picture. On virtually everything i'm holding long I am still hedged and my overall delta is just barely positive, so i'm not benefiting from either up or down much, just looking. Next week sometime after the beach parties are over i'll decide whether to lighten up a little on the puts. Shouldn't we have a little pre-memorial day sell-off tomorrow afternoon?