Weekly Poll: Market Is Flat Year-To-Date, Where To Next?

SPY Next Week?

  • Bullish

    Votes: 30 50.8%

  • Flat

    Votes: 8 13.6%

  • Bearish

    Votes: 15 25.4%

  • I prefer to keep my opinion to myself

    Votes: 6 10.2%
  • Total voters
    59
  • Poll closed .
Quote from piezoe:

You are absolutely correct, and all the more so the shorter the time scale.. As traders, we only monitor the markets that are correlated with the market we trade. If I notice a deviation from the expected I'll want to pay close attention. That deviation might be be telling me something important -- for example one market may be lagging creating a trading edge, or the correlation may be breaking down, it's up to me to try and figure out what is going on. The other thing to note is the time scale for any two markets being compared. Are they comparable?
More...

Excellent! I noticed a move in EUR/USD, and I stayed until I saw the break on the way down of 1.30. It came down from a fail to break back above 1.31. It was beautiful to watch! I could see in the price the traders doing their things---including each man for himself.

Good to exchange with you!
 
The SPY is having trouble getting through the 200 day and the UUP is sitting on the 200 day and could bounce off of it.
Historically August is a bad month for stocks so I'm thinking (or dreaming :) ) that there's a nice short coming up for the SPY.
 
1. I never check economic reports during the trading day, always the next day. What did they say about them? What are the numbers?

2. This is some unusual action in the market. It goes with the "confusion" hypothesis I put forth two days ago.

3. VIX is not running high, and bulls are buying. Why?

4. KMAX: you are putting fears in me when you stated a bad august. I am short some straddles. Maybe I should take off some puts.

5. S2007S: Please post the upcoming report on the eve as well. At least I would know the existence of news. I know I can find them, but reading them on site can get my head polluted with worthless opinion of financial "experts".

Shortie: Any juicy analysis/information/etc. Some important to know information. I know you have eyes all over the place giving you intelligence. Your information can be counted on (sometimes to fade) because you bet with real $s using the same info.
 
Quote from tradingjournals:

Excellent! I noticed a move in EUR/USD, and I stayed until I saw the break on the way down of 1.30. It came down from a fail to break back above 1.31. It was beautiful to watch! I could see in the price the traders doing their things---including each man for himself.

Good to exchange with you!
More...

Another thing to consider IMO is the relative importance of various forces that move the market. Today we had a potential down grade of Spain's bonds which should tank the Euro and boost the dollar. That should push the market down, but after the market open the PMI and then Michigan sentiment came out + and pushed the market up like a rocket as those folks were scalped who were short at the open (the futures down big overnight!). Now I ask myself this question, which in the intermediate term will have the greater effect on the equities market, anticipation of a Spanish bond downgrade and its effect on the Forex market or the PMI and Mich. sentiment. I think I know the answer, but each trader has to answer for themselves. By the way both PMI and Mich. sentiment are known ahead of time (before numbers made public) to subscribers. The lead on the sentiment is substantial, so I expect the guys in the S&P pit in Chicago very likely knew the Michigan number when the pit opened today at 7:20 am CST. Looks like they ignored it because they either went short, or some high rollers did, prior to RTH. That tells me they are anticipating the market losing its 1086 support (ES). If not today than Sunday night or Monday. Notice that that 1086 support goes back to 7/22-7/23 and if we lose it we see 1075 next! I'll be very interested in Sunday night's trading in the ES.
 
Quote from tradingjournals:

4. KMAX: you are putting fears in me when you stated a bad august. I am short some straddles. Maybe I should take off some puts.
More...

Sorry to scare you but August is bad,September is worse according to the Stock Traders Almanac.
There's always exceptions.

Not much going on now, SPY is flat and I'm off work this afternoon
so I'm ready for trouble. :)
 
Quote from shortie:

~ flat week but plenty of action: first bears got screwed, then bulls got shafted, then on Fri both got shafted.
More...

Very funny Shortie!

My vote was wrong again but I'm getting closer to being right.:)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top