Weekly Poll: Market at New Highs after Egypt Ignored. Where To Next?

[shortie]

let's hear our good forecasters.

Cramers is super bullish:

"Cramer said everything from technology to the banks are poised to head higher next week. "
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10997154/1/cramers-mad-money-recap-next-weeks-game-plan-update-1.html


Really, everything? What happened to the risk?

 

[trefoil]

Bearish. Sentiment is up there, again.
On Egypt, by Monday the higher probability thing is that Mubarak will have won. The problem is that won't last the full week. The EU has made it pretty plain the Egyptian gov't has lost all credibility with them. The US is divided as to whether to continue to aid Mubarak, but will probably have to continue if the protesters disperse.
After that comes the radical option. Why? One need only look at this chart, from Bloomberg:

Egypt's Stagnant Economic Growth Fuels Protests: Chart of the Day

What you're dealing with here are people who quite literally have nothing to lose. That's a risk that is definitely not priced in.

 

[shortie]

thestreet.com is bullish:

Bullish 51.95% 93 votes
Bearish 31.28% 56 votes
Neutral 16.75% 30 votes

 

[the1]

With the money the Fed is pumping into the system, and the possibility of QEIII, there is no risk. Buy every freaking dip that is offered, <b>if</b> one is offered.

Quote from shortie:

let's hear our good forecasters.

Cramers is super bullish:

"Cramer said everything from technology to the banks are poised to head higher next week. "
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10997154/1/cramers-mad-money-recap-next-weeks-game-plan-update-1.html


Really, everything? What happened to the risk?

 

[shortie]

does anybody have reliable market crash predictions? we are +25% since August

 

[Nine_Ender]

Quote from shortie:

does anybody have reliable market crash predictions? we are +25% since August

Posted August 28th, 2010 :

Quote from Nine_Ender:

Ok, my mistake a correction is often a 5-10% drop over a short time period ( but often longer then a day ). However, my point is crashes are not that frequent and given that we basically had a market meltdown ending around March 2009 it is highly unlikely we get a crash any time soon.

My other point is throughout the 17 months since March 2009 there have been numerous people predicting market crashes
throughout one of the best bull runs in history. These calls were horrendous costing many people a lot of profits. There is absolutely nothing to suggest a crash is imminent fundamentally this year, earnings are strong and m&a activity is picking up. Every correction that occurs is met with bargain hunters buying up stock.

So I believe people on here are irresponsible to predict market meltdowns when any impetus to create this situation will not arrive for at least a year. At that time, it will be clear if a market meltdown is more likely. But NOTHING today suggests this is a likely scenario at all. The Chicken Little's of this site don't even provide reasons its just a religon to them and the "double dip" type analysts on CNBC ( who were wrong over and over again in 2009 ).

Thesis still holds basically except most of the pain that permabears felt from September 2010 to now could have been avoided. Hard to believe that people were predicting crashes last summer, but they were. The move up was fast enough however that if we climb through April another 10-15% as I suspect I think a minor correction around early May would be possible ( not a crash however ).

Longer term trends involve some guesswork and margin of error but I think the bull market may last until summer 2012 at which point anything could happen. Depends on how high we go, if valuations get stretched, and if the US foreclosure/debt issues are real. At this point, equity valuations are quite reasonable ( even cheap in some areas ), and the US economy is recovering faster then expected.

There really is no real reason for today's markets to crash. Can irrational fear trump technicals and fundamentals ? I don't think so. Too many people sold early 2009 and got burned doing so. Its fresh in their memories they won't do it again unless something seriously breaks down in corporate profits.

 

[abducens]

I think there may be a down day this week, possibly two.

 

[shortie]

Quote from Nine_Ender:



... At this point, equity valuations are quite reasonable ( even cheap in some areas ), and the US economy is recovering faster then expected.
...

Robert Shiller has an index that says stocks 35% overvalued. should i believe him or you?

 

[piezoe]

Quote from shortie:

Robert Shiller has an index that says stocks 35% overvalued. should i believe him or you?

You should probably believe "you" , becaue Shiller is using logic and formulas, "you" is using reality.

"theory predicts, reality contradicts"

 

[shortie]

Quote from shortie:

thestreet.com is bullish:

Bullish 51.95% 93 votes
Bearish 31.28% 56 votes
Neutral 16.75% 30 votes

Bullish 9 52.94%
Flat 4 23.53%
Bearish 4 23.53%
I prefer to keep my opinion to myself or don't have one 0 0%
Total: 17 votes 100%


Last week the majority was bearish. Since then the market +2.5% and now the majority is bullish. how do you guys justify your viewpoint? Who is going to buy the expensive stuff from you down the road?