Weekly Poll: Longs Remind Me Of My 72nd Birthday When I Went Water Skiing

SPY Next Week

  • Bullish

    Votes: 20 33.9%

  • Flat

    Votes: 9 15.3%

  • Bearish

    Votes: 25 42.4%

  • I prefer not to say

    Votes: 5 8.5%
  • Total voters
    59
Quote from Ivanovich:

Here it is for you. Skynet in control. Note volume differential as the move up increases.

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What about yesterday then? Market went reverse.
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

Do you guys remember the days when Bear collapsed? I feel like Greece was Bear this time around (without the actual collapse - yet). Right after that, volatility began going through the roof. Big up days, followed by big down days, followed by big up days, etc. Then the collapse.

It really feels like summer of '08 again. I won't be taking any more long positions until the air clears (if ever). I'll continue to take small short positions after each big up day, with tight stops.

If we clear the air and begin to churn higher every day like the April 09 - Jan 10 period, then I'll go back in. But not until.
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There is an disquieting similarity, yes. History may not always repeat but "it often rhymes."
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

The machines ran it up at the end - notice the volume, considerably less than average.

Low volume = higher price.

HAL9000 on the case.
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Thank you for noticing that. I am tired of hearing "The volume is not there, I want to see more volume to the upside!"

Go back and look over the last few years, and you notice that positive volume is usually around 5 billion shares on the S&P500, and spikes higher than the recent average are more often than not negative days.

Steady volume means lower VIX readings, and stable price changes. I will philosophize that volume is not diminishing, but is stabilizing when it is not over 5.5 billion (S&P500.)

JCS
 
Quote from piezoe:

There is an disquieting similarity, yes. History may not always repeat but "it often rhymes."
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Once as tragedy, once as farce. This is the farce. If your time horizon is Graham & Dodd, which was two years, be long or be wrong.
Shorter than that, it's a coin toss. Waiting for the churn will just make you lose whatever progress gets made between now and the churn. Might even make you miss the whole damn thing.
I post this for the folks who might have wandered into this place expecting informed comment from folks with at least one working neuron. Get out, go someplace else. This ain't it.
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

I'll continue to take small short positions after each big up day
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This turned out to be a good strategy thus far. Let's see if the volume holds, otherwise HAL9000 and Liberty 33 will save the market (again).
 
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