Weekly Poll: Last Chance To Show Off Your Prediction Skills In 2010!

[shortie]

Quote from NoDoji:

Stop all this arguing, boys.

More importantly: Shortie, did you buy every new high on POT today? Are you feelin' the love bull?

i have not overcome my fear of buying a breakout . but that's my plan.

i do have some ideas i want to play with before i tried it with real $$$$

umm, make it $



also, i think i will start buying breakouts after the dust is settled after the impending market collapse.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from shortie:

i have not overcome my fear of buying a breakout . but that's my plan.

Shortie, do it just once.

Just once.

Do you remember the first time you ever traveled by plane? That feeling when that big heavy plane carrying all those big heavy people is barreling along the runway - clunk-a-clunk-a-clunk - and it seems like it's going way too slow and there's no way that big ol' heavy thing can get off the ground?

And then suddenly it lifts off and by God! you're flying! And the ground (price support) just keeps getting further and further away and you realize that this is one helluva fast way to get from here to there!

Yeah.

It's just like that.

And the sweaty palms are dry in no time

 

[trefoil]

Quote from shortie:

i have not overcome my fear of buying a breakout . but that's my plan.

i do have some ideas i want to play with before i tried it with real $$$$

umm, make it $



also, i think i will start buying breakouts after the dust is settled after the impending market collapse.

That last sentence is the reason, summed up, why there won't be a market collapse.
I said this to S2007S and I'll say it to you: down is faster than up, because fear is more powerful than greed. Ergo, downmoves are over quickly, so quickly that folks like you get bewildered by the speed.
2008 was horrible, but when the market commenced its upmove in March 2009, that was it, all over, done for now.
You could argue, and I have models that show this, that the fall of 2008 was the final, climactic selloff of a bear market that started in 2000 with the bursting of the tech bubble. If that's the case, you're going to be dead before another one like that happens.
There will be scary downdrafts in bull markets. Even the late nineties saw the Asian currency crises, Russian default, and LTCM debacle. But they're over so fast you barely remember them years later.
I'm calling for a downer in Jan, but that's only because I think, for now, people have gotten too complacent and need to be shaken up a bit. I'm hardly expecting a collapse.

 

[shortie]

ok, a crash maybe impossible to predict. but why this market should keep going up is beyond me. some of the reasons often given:
1. low P/E
2. Fed

1. will low P/E keep up with the fast-moving bull market? i doubt it.
is P/E really low? i don't know really. i am not an expert on P/E. one website shows Current S&P 500 PE Ratio: 23.00. this seems high to me.

2. what if Fed stops supporting the market? what if the market has already priced in all Fed interventions 1 year forward?

 

[trefoil]

When I first became interested in the markets, more years ago than I would ever care to remember, I retrieved from sure destruction a book called "Stock Market Logic", by a guy named Norman Fosback.
Amazingly, Fosback is still around. And, he's bullish. Read it, shortie, and pay close attention. This guy knows what he's talking about.

 

[trefoil]

Stock Market Logic is still available on Amazon, new no less, not even used. To me, that's astonishing.

 

[tivthetrader]

Nine Ender,

I think your prediction of 1-4% up for the week may not come true. You sound like an intelligent guy, but can I ask you, what course does one take to develop the arrogant attitude that you consistently exhibit. I was reading through your posts, and you do come off as a know it all, like you are the guru of trading. Even when I made xxxxx million during that huge run i had (the guys who know me know the number) I never got on these boards and slammed people and acted like I knew everything like you do. Buy a sense of humor and some humility, brother, it will serve you better. You don't have to constantly try to impress everybody with how smart you are.

Other than that, you seem to be a nice fella and have a nice day.

 

[Petsamo]

Quote from tivthetrader:
Nine Ender,
what course does one take to develop the arrogant attitude that you consistently exhibit.

Nine_Ender exhibits all the characteristics of a professional salesman. He'll lie to you, use fear, etc. Thank goodness he currently isn't a salesman. He'll rip off a lot of unsuspecting people. He's very effective at what he does.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Quote from tivthetrader:

Nine Ender,

I think your prediction of 1-4% up for the week may not come true. You sound like an intelligent guy, but can I ask you, what course does one take to develop the arrogant attitude that you consistently exhibit. I was reading through your posts, and you do come off as a know it all, like you are the guru of trading. Even when I made xxxxx million during that huge run i had (the guys who know me know the number) I never got on these boards and slammed people and acted like I knew everything like you do. Buy a sense of humor and some humility, brother, it will serve you better. You don't have to constantly try to impress everybody with how smart you are.

Other than that, you seem to be a nice fella and have a nice day.

You know, this place has become a haven for permabears discussing impending market crashes, their latest top calls, and in general how the world's economy is going to hell any day now.

Yes, I had the arrogance to present a clear message concerning market direction, with some fairly valuable specific trading calls occasionally. Yes, when challenged in a fairly nasty way I fought back with some edge. But in the end, why bother participating there isn't much of value being presented by 95% of the people on here ?

I give up. I can trade quite well without consulting this board at all. I have no need to impress anyone, I believe in truth in positions but what a mess it is discussing anything on here.
Enjoy the hysteria without me.

 

[dtrader98]

Quote from trefoil:

That last sentence is the reason, summed up, why there won't be a market collapse.
I said this to S2007S and I'll say it to you: down is faster than up, because fear is more powerful than greed. Ergo, downmoves are over quickly, so quickly that folks like you get bewildered by the speed.
2008 was horrible, but when the market commenced its upmove in March 2009, that was it, all over, done for now.
You could argue, and I have models that show this, that the fall of 2008 was the final, climactic selloff of a bear market that started in 2000 with the bursting of the tech bubble. If that's the case, you're going to be dead before another one like that happens.
There will be scary downdrafts in bull markets. Even the late nineties saw the Asian currency crises, Russian default, and LTCM debacle. But they're over so fast you barely remember them years later.
I'm calling for a downer in Jan, but that's only because I think, for now, people have gotten too complacent and need to be shaken up a bit. I'm hardly expecting a collapse.

Well said. I also have 'stock market logic' sitting among the relics on the stock market shelves.

Although no one knows the future, I too wouldn't be surprised to see some type of pullback/dip in Jan. I've seen one too many run-ups of this velocity pull back in early Jan in recent history (and considering Qs have recently touched former local highs, the potential for sideways to pullback seems even more alluring). That being said, I'm not so certain the bear is completely done. Have a look at 30s/70s sideways action and Nikkei225 for examples (20 yr sideways markets tend to be the rule for major corrections, IMO).

Regardless, Cheers and Happy New Years to all on the boards.