Weekly Poll: Last Chance To Show Off Your Prediction Skills In 2010!

SPY Next Week?

  • Bullish

    Votes: 10 34.5%

  • Flat

    Votes: 5 17.2%

  • Bearish

    Votes: 9 31.0%

  • I prefer to keep my opinion to myself or don't have one

    Votes: 5 17.2%
  • Total voters
    29
  • Poll closed .
Quote from Nine_Ender:

Please, someone, restore my confidance in Shortie's sanity by pointing out any week since Sept. 1 that Shortie predicted a bullish week.
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You're being mean to Shortie!

I hereby offer as a Christmas gift to personally assist Shortie in buying a new intraday high on something. My personal favorites are CL, 6E, and AAPL. I will hold Shortie's sweating trembling hand as he places a BUY stop order ABOVE the intraday high of one of these and talk him through the trade because I'm sure that his eyes will be closed as soon as the order is placed. :p :D :p
 
Quote from Nine_Ender:

Continued strength in the US economy ...
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2.6% GDP, 39K jobs created, 9.8% unemployment, potential downgrade of the US by Moody's, etc.
Why don't you just stick to your lie about smart money being long.
smiley-char002.gif
 
1-4% up for the week? Thats quite a range to the upside, you see a scenario where we close the week at 1300? I don't see anyway that happens at all, regardless of what numbers come out this week. Not after the run that has already occured and lots of guys wanting to lock in their gains for the year.
 
Quote from tivthetrader:

1-4% up for the week? Thats quite a range to the upside, you see a scenario where we close the week at 1300? I don't see anyway that happens at all, regardless of what numbers come out this week. Not after the run that has already occured and lots of guys wanting to lock in their gains for the year.
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Do you actually know anyone that is locking in gains for the year ?
It seems a stretch, the markets are only up around 13% ytd and I would imagine any nervous investors would have bailed when the market dropped from 1230 to 1177. Since then its been new money coming in I'm sure. I'm thinking most of this money is in for the longer haul looking forward to the next earnings season(s) with higher dividend payouts extremely likely. This group will hold through any fluctuations in January up or down.

The one exception might be metal stocks particularily smaller firms making little or no money. I could see people locking in gains on that sector, but frankly the bullish bias that gold bugs generally have right now might be more powerful then the wish to take profits. Metal investors tend to have high expectations, and will hold long past the end of a cycle.
 
Nine Ender,

I have been watching your posts and I must commend you that you have been consistently correct in catching this last leg of the rally (i really hadn't been looking previously). However, don't make the mistake of thinking the move lasts forever. It was a small tightening by China, but a tightening. The Christmas hype season is over. I'm not saying it can't go up a little more here, but actually Im thinking this week is flat to down, with the possibility of maybe a small up if things break right, but don't confuse a move up with reality. New money coming in, just as good a chance that the money that came in to push this up the last two months starts to come out and lock in as guys chasing their benchmarks stop.
 
Quote from tivthetrader:

Nine Ender,

I have been watching your posts and I must commend you that you have been consistently correct in catching this last leg of the rally (i really hadn't been looking previously). However, don't make the mistake of thinking the move lasts forever. It was a small tightening by China, but a tightening. The Christmas hype season is over. I'm not saying it can't go up a little more here, but actually Im thinking this week is flat to down, with the possibility of maybe a small up if things break right, but don't confuse a move up with reality. New money coming in, just as good a chance that the money that came in to push this up the last two months starts to come out and lock in as guys chasing their benchmarks stop.
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I am making a short term play looking for a gain the first two trading days in January ( blue chip financial and technology ). Options seem cheap right now you don't need much of a move to make money.

January I have no opinion its too early to know. I'm thinking short metals on any strength and/or long financials on any weakness, both going into January expiry. Trades might only last 2-3 days ( or less ), but on any major retracement I'll buy April calls on Canadian banks for sure.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

You're being mean to Shortie!

I hereby offer as a Christmas gift to personally assist Shortie in buying a new intraday high on something. My personal favorites are CL, 6E, and AAPL. I will hold Shortie's sweating trembling hand as he places a BUY stop order ABOVE the intraday high of one of these and talk him through the trade because I'm sure that his eyes will be closed as soon as the order is placed. :p :D :p
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i would not be able to buy if my life depended on it. especially now that we are so close to another crash!
 
Quote from shortie:

i would not be able to buy if my life depended on it. especially now that we are so close to another crash!
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I'm having a hard time finding precedent for a crash only 22 months after the last crash ended. Enlighten me what makes you think this time is different and epic on a historical basis.

Is it the record setting corporate earnings ? The liquidity in the market ? The attraction of 0% savings accounts ? The Chinese growth rate ?

Sometimes I wonder, did some of you start following markets in 2007 or later ? I've been following markets since the 1980s, seen a lot of wild swings, nothing about today's market is extraordinary or suggests a crash.
 
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