Weekly Poll: History Suggests Bullish Bias
- Thread starter shortie
- Start date
Quote from tradingjournals:
It has been rising since 1:29PM. I did not know all we had to do is ask the start of the countdown. Since no one responded the market decided to take care of on its own
Good call. It took a few more hours for the profit taking and holiday covers to finish, but it did tank well into after hours.
Are you counting on futures which are now red? You need a gap down, an open below Thursday's low, and immediately afterwards a rise in the market, to get it nailed . If this happens, I would be impressed.
I would not be surprised if the night redness in the futures turns to green or get cut over time by the open.
I would not be surprised if the night redness in the futures turns to green or get cut over time by the open.
Yea I am thinking the futures turn sometime overnight, as bearish as I am I feel the bulls are going to take control of the market sometime this week and push it higher into the end of the week, markets were down 4% this week alone so it will be interesting to take notice how tomorrow works out.
All true a low occured and then rallied in the futures all at night. Because the action deviated from my plan (The futures never looked back after a lame attempt at 1000) I stood aside which was the correct action for a swing. Daytrading one could have easily sold resistance at 11 am EST.
I stand aside for now (I was long over the weekend and sold my longs at resistance but that is not the discussion here) and will watch closely with the notion we retest a low before a move long. Having said that I do not expect that great of a bounce--5-10% upside for now.
By standing aside I am cognizant of the potential for support to break to the downside and resistance to break to the upside but I am comfortable being flat as I type this Tuesday afternoon.
NO POSITION AT PRESENT.
Could you explain what went wrong with your prediction system? You seemed to have been practically sure, so I am curious.
Smart! We are (were) due for a bounce (too many with short positions!). But the outlook remains dismal and the market continues to look very weak. I have seen nothing, nothing at all, to make me think that I should change my original projection of a further fall to eventually test resistance at the 970-980 area. I do expect a stronger market this Fall going into the November election. I might change my mind in that regard depending on events between now and the third week in August. We have an expiration coming up before long. It would be characteristic of the market to show strength going into the expiration, assuming it continues to show weakness for the time being. The most likely time for the market to begin a recovery into Fall would be after the July expiration. It seems too soon now for a sustained recovery. I still consider a fall all the way down to test the old devils bottom as unlikely, so I will be adopting a net long stance at the 970-980 area after a sustained consolidation, or at the first signs of buying on volume.