Weekly Poll: History Suggests Bullish Bias
- Thread starter shortie
- Start date
"âWe are very bullish,â said Jerry Lou, the Hong Kong- based strategist at Morgan Stanley, among the top-ranked analysts for China stocks by Institutional Investor, who predicts the Shanghai Composite may climb 65 percent to 4,000 by June 2011. âWe like valuations and inflation will peak. All we need is a catalyst such as a change in yuan policy."
http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...g-like-greece-signals-65-rally-to-morgan.html
Abby J. Cohen:
"Now how do we develop a fair value estimate? We look at things like the economic forecast, profit forecast, corporate balance sheets, the outlook for inflation and interest rates. In the United States, we believe the fair value for the S&P 500, our major market index is between 1250 and 1300 over the next 6-12 months." - up to ~25% !!!
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/6101340.cms?prtpage=1
Shortie's Take:
Looks like we are going lower at least near-term (~1 month) because there are too many deranged bulls.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...g-like-greece-signals-65-rally-to-morgan.html
Abby J. Cohen:
"Now how do we develop a fair value estimate? We look at things like the economic forecast, profit forecast, corporate balance sheets, the outlook for inflation and interest rates. In the United States, we believe the fair value for the S&P 500, our major market index is between 1250 and 1300 over the next 6-12 months." - up to ~25% !!!
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/6101340.cms?prtpage=1
Shortie's Take:
Looks like we are going lower at least near-term (~1 month) because there are too many deranged bulls.
It depends on when they wrote those things. If it is today, then it is a serious issue. If it is when market was rising like two weeks ago or before, then they already got the candles, and they may have now changed their mind to bearish, and in such case I would want to change my mind accordingly.
Markets do exactly what the models say.
I have a problem... and it is myself.
Markets do exactly what the models say.
I have a problem... and it is myself.
What people may not realize is that an estimate like 13% could be made for lower or higher, and that it is not the real issue. The real issue is which of the two predictions will not hit the stops first (13% higher or 13% lower). In her case, if 1/2 of reward as risk, her stops were already hit in few day. Her long term trade led to a loss in a matter of days only!
This is good analysis.
Pros: We have had over 3% drawdown already, based on this research buying now is even less riskier compared to when market is higher. Plus put call ratio is extremely bearish (record)
Cons: Records can be broken. No stop trading, only way to mitigate risk is scaling in (averaging down)
Pros: We have had over 3% drawdown already, based on this research buying now is even less riskier compared to when market is higher. Plus put call ratio is extremely bearish (record)
Cons: Records can be broken. No stop trading, only way to mitigate risk is scaling in (averaging down)
3:18PM, here we go...
A lot of traders seem to be praying between 103.92 and 103.85. Full of hope the bus might come, but full of fear that it does not come. They could see it at 104.08. Will other guys offer themselves to help them? Only 25 minutes and we shall know. Some may say, should I pay a cab ride to catch the bus in case it turns the other way. Trading is tormenting.
What do you think they tormented traders will do? In fact if bus reaches them, they will stop praying and go back to their morning habit. A strange breed.
What do you think they tormented traders will do? In fact if bus reaches them, they will stop praying and go back to their morning habit. A strange breed.
Shortie: should I buy or sell at SPY 103.56? Spy is now at 103.66. Only 10 cents away?