Weekly Poll: History Suggests Bullish Bias
- Thread starter shortie
- Start date
QQQQ just hit 43.25 at 3:28PM. Is this the bottom for today?
Look no one knows for sure but let's just say:
Risk holding over July 4th is too high with terrorism, oil spills, hurricanes, and the wrong seasonality to buy early and buy often.
The market is losing its bullishness over the long term especially. Yes there are buyers but only at a discount and that discount is below our recent lows--meaning the lows for 2010.
The markets will be open everywhere else on the 4th of July which means that if there is a sell-off into the weekend followed by a sell-off internationally on Monday then when the US markets open July 6th there will be a discount and the large money will flow in and then on a reversal the me too buyers and bots will follow.
That is one scenario I am looking at. Why buy now? That's what I believe to be true. Then again I will just follow the markets lead.
Quote from shortie:
This study seems like a good start to predict the market move next week. The study suggests a reasonably strong bullish bias from Thur close. Since we have not moved much, there is still room to grow.
****disclaimer i don't have any affiliation with this blog
http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2010/06/two-90-down-days-in-one-week.html
"Friday, June 25, 2010
Two 90% Down Days In One Week
It was just a little over a week ago that I was examining what occurs after the market posts 2 90% Up Days in a 1-week period. The results appeared quite bullish. Thursday we saw the 2nd 90% down day in the last 3 days. I stretched the requirement out to 1 week and took a look.
For the short-term at least, such negative breadth appears to suggest a bounce. "
~3% drawdown already, hmm....
He may be right...if the bottom he may have in mind is a real bottom (4 buns).