Weekly Poll: History Suggests Bullish Bias

SPY Next Week

  • Bullish

    Votes: 23 46.0%

  • Flat

    Votes: 8 16.0%

  • Bearish

    Votes: 14 28.0%

  • I prefer not to say

    Votes: 5 10.0%
  • Total voters
    50
S

shortie

This study seems like a good start to predict the market move next week. The study suggests a reasonably strong bullish bias from Thur close. Since we have not moved much, there is still room to grow.
****disclaimer i don't have any affiliation with this blog

http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2010/06/two-90-down-days-in-one-week.html

2010-6-25.png


"Friday, June 25, 2010
Two 90% Down Days In One Week
It was just a little over a week ago that I was examining what occurs after the market posts 2 90% Up Days in a 1-week period. The results appeared quite bullish. Thursday we saw the 2nd 90% down day in the last 3 days. I stretched the requirement out to 1 week and took a look.

For the short-term at least, such negative breadth appears to suggest a bounce. "
 
Interesting, but keep in mind that you're looking at a system that trades about once a year. Not a big sample size, might be worthy anyways.
 
Reading the stats above and some comments on the other thread, corrupted my head and cost me money. How does one make sure not to become the majority opinion after reading the majority opinion?
 
Quote from tradingjournals:

Reading the stats above and some comments on the other thread, corrupted my head and cost me money. How does one make sure not to become the majority opinion after reading the majority opinion?
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You are over thinking it. The majority that click on the thread title would obviously already been preselected to go along with shortie's argument.
 
If I remember correctly. Earlier this year I forecast a low July 6th. Prescient I believe. No one is gonna want to carry this over holiday weekend and then pre-market on July 6th depending on what happens worldwide there will be a reversal as the pre-market opens down then a buying rally begins as the price becomes attractive only to last into August...
 
Quote from noddyboy:

You are over thinking it. The majority that click on the thread title would obviously already been preselected to go along with shortie's argument.
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thanks! excellent point!

the title may indeed create a certain bias. it may not be as simple as "mainly those who agree with the title will read/vote" but a bias could really exist.
 
Quote from Lojanica:

No one is gonna want to carry this over holiday weekend ..
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There are two sides in the market. Which side are you referring to?

The market hired a lot of eventual buyers this morning. When will they buy?
 
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